Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

The Wall Street Journal last week <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/amd-is-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-xilinx-11602205553" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices</a> is in advanced talks to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xilinx-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11600:1" rel="noopener">Xilinx</a> for a consideration of some $30 billion. It's a surprising move for the famously cautious and pragmatic CEO, Lisa Su. However, we think that the rumour is credible and, on balance, believe it to be a smart move on the part of AMD. Here's why.

The Wall Street Journal last week reported that Advanced Micro Devices is in advanced talks to buy Xilinx for a consideration of some $30 billion. It's a surprising move for the famously cautious and pragmatic CEO, Lisa Su. However, we think that the rumour is credible and, on balance, believe it to be a smart move on the part of AMD. Here's why. 

AMD. Making Sense Of The Proposed Xilinx Acquisition.

The much-anticipated acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">Arm</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank</a> was formally <a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-for-40-billion-creating-worlds-premier-computing-company-for-the-age-of-ai" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on Monday. The transaction is valued at $40 billion, an approximately equal combination of cash and NVIDIA stock.On the surface the deal looks strategically solid from NVIDIA's perspective. It places the company at the center of Arm's one hundred and eighty billion connected device ecosystem. Perhaps even more importantly, it opens up the possibility of an outright assault on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel's</a> data center dominance by adding Arm-based server processors to complement NVIDIA's existing lineup of GPUs and interconnect.Underneath the surface however, this deal is fraught with issues and risks. While Arm has been a very successful company, their growth is flatlining as smartphone sales stagnate. Furthermore, we see the rise of RISC-V as a very real threat to Arm's business model in the coming years. Arm has never competed with its customers. Under NVIDIA ownership, this will be virtually impossible to avoid.From a regulatory perspective, Arm IP moving under american ownership will raise the very real prospect that this technology will become a future weapon in the US-China trade and technology wars. In today's environment, it's difficult to see why China would agree to facilitate that possibility.All in all we think this deal is not as good as it seems on the surface and that it will be practically impossible to get through the regulatory approval process.

The much-anticipated acquisition by NVIDIA of Arm from Softbank was formally announced on Monday. The transaction is valued at $40 billion, an approximately equal combination of cash and NVIDIA stock.On the surface the deal looks strategically solid from NVIDIA's perspective. It places the company at the center of Arm's one hundred and eighty billion connected device ecosystem. Perhaps even more importantly, it opens up the possibility of an outright assault on Intel's data center dominance by adding Arm-based server processors to complement NVIDIA's existing lineup of GPUs and interconnect.Underneath the surface however, this deal is fraught with issues and risks. While Arm has been a very successful company, their growth is flatlining as smartphone sales stagnate. Furthermore, we see the rise of RISC-V as a very real threat to Arm's business model in the coming years. Arm has never competed with its customers. Under NVIDIA ownership, this will be virtually impossible to avoid.From a regulatory perspective, Arm IP moving under american ownership will raise the very real prospect that this technology will become a future weapon in the US-China trade and technology wars. In today's environment, it's difficult to see why China would agree to facilitate that possibility.All in all we think this deal is not as good as it seems on the surface and that it will be practically impossible to get through the regulatory approval process. 

NVIDIA+Arm. Strategically Solid But Practically Impossible.

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

Sold! Softbank is said to be closing in on a deal to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-plc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arm Holdings (ARM LN)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> for more than $40 billion in cash and stock in a deal that could be announced as soon as Monday, according to reports out today by <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-nearing-deal-to-sell-arm-holdings-to-nvidia-for-more-than-40-billion-11599928360?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Wall Street Journal</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6bfe40a5-2426-4743-98cd-6fed9dd01b98" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Financial Times</a>.
This finally may be some good news for Softbank's investors, shaken by news last week that it had launched a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">massive options program so large it helped move markets</a> on stocks it just bought. 
This was funded with cash Softbank had said it must protect against conditions too risky to allow it to execute promised stock buybacks and debt repayment to repair its damaged balance sheet (read more in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/softbank-s-son-feeling-the-force-with-options-funded-with-cash-it-had-pledged-to-protect" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Softbank's Son "Feeling The Force" With Options Funded With Cash It Had Pledged To Protect</a> on 9/8/20).
I warned last week Softbank had deliberately withheld and misrepresented material information about such a dramatic change in strategy direction and risk in its earnings presentation to investors just weeks ago.
On Saturday, Softbank's top investors went straight to the top to find out why—the answer is troubling, but not surprising.
<div class="content-highlight">
Read on for Bond Angle commentary.
</div>

Sold! Softbank is said to be closing in on a deal to sell Arm Holdings (ARM LN) to NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) for more than $40 billion in cash and stock in a deal that could be announced as soon as Monday, according to reports out today by The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.
This finally may be some good news for Softbank's investors, shaken by news last week that it had launched a massive options program so large it helped move markets on stocks it just bought. 
This was funded with cash Softbank had said it must protect against conditions too risky to allow it to execute promised stock buybacks and debt repayment to repair its damaged balance sheet (read more in Softbank's Son "Feeling The Force" With Options Funded With Cash It Had Pledged To Protect on 9/8/20).
I warned last week Softbank had deliberately withheld and misrepresented material information about such a dramatic change in strategy direction and risk in its earnings presentation to investors just weeks ago.
On Saturday, Softbank's top investors went straight to the top to find out why—the answer is troubling, but not surprising.

Read on for Bond Angle commentary.


Softbank Wrapping up Arm Sale While Wrestling With Alarmed Investors

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

Softbank looks set to continue its transition into the ultimate momentum fund as PM Masa’s scrabble bag looks set to get a workout. Softbank Group, after previously securitising shares in its domestic telco subsidiary is now further selling down its stake to raise cash. The question is for what?

Softbank looks set to continue its transition into the ultimate momentum fund as PM Masa’s scrabble bag looks set to get a workout. Softbank Group, after previously securitising shares in its domestic telco subsidiary is now further selling down its stake to raise cash. The question is for what?

Softbank – PM Masa Raising Cash From the Dusty Telco

As Softbank goes all in on its transformation into an investing company (is Dave Portnoy being hired directly or is Masa familiar enough with Scrabble to run the strategy himself?), we feel that recent moves by Arm point to a potential Nippon Paint redux swapping overvalued shares for even more overvalued shares.

As Softbank goes all in on its transformation into an investing company (is Dave Portnoy being hired directly or is Masa familiar enough with Scrabble to run the strategy himself?), we feel that recent moves by Arm point to a potential Nippon Paint redux swapping overvalued shares for even more overvalued shares.

Softbank – Is Son’s Next Robinhood Trade Going to Be Arm for Nvidia Shares?

United Kingdom

IQE plc develops, manufactures, and sells advanced semiconductor materials worldwide. The company operates through Wireless, Photonics, Infrared, and CMOS++ segments. It manufactures compound semiconductor wafers or epiwafers using epitaxy process; and offers various products, including HBTs, pHEMTs, BiFETs/BiHEMTs, HFETs, LMHEMTs, LNHEMTs, and MESFETs for use in wireless devices, such as mobile phones, smartphones, mobile networks, Wi-Fi, smart metering, satellite navigation, and a plethora of connected devices. The company also provides a range of wafers comprising optical fiber communications optical storage solutions consisting of CDs and DVDs; optical networking solutions, including storage area networks; computing solutions, such as optical mouse devices and CD/DVD ROMs; office/professional solutions comprising laser printing/copying; and energy solutions consisting of solar cells for emitters and detectors, infrared, solar, optical interconnects, laser projection, gesture recognition, solid state lighting applications. In addition, it offers IR sensor, thermal imaging, night vision, and thermal photovoltaic products for infrared applications; and concentrated photovoltaic solar cells for utility scale electricity generation, satellite/space power generation, power generation, and power applications. Further, the company produces compound semiconductor on silicon wafers, as well as a range of engineered substrates, including germanium-on-insulator, germanium-on-silicon, and silicon-on-sapphire for next-generation microprocessors, and ultra high speed/density flash memory and MEMs devices. Additionally, it provides gallium nitride, a compound semiconductor, which includes a range of RF, photonic, and electronic properties. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Cardiff, the United Kingdom.

Kromek Group plc designs, develops, and manufactures x-ray and gamma ray detection and imaging, and radiation detection products for security screening, civil nuclear, and medical imaging markets in the United Kingdom, North America, South America, the Middle East, Asia, Europe, and Australasia. Its nuclear detection products include CPG, a CZT-based room temperature and high-resolution radiation detector; Kromek GR1, a gamma ray spectrometer; GR1-A, a USB-powered gamma spectrometer; SIGMA, a technology platform for scintillator products; TN15, a sensitivity thermal neutron scintillation detector; RENA-Mini, a platform for the development of pixelated detectors; Q4-GR1, a solution for mobile laboratory; RayMon10, a handheld radiation monitor; RadAngel for Schools, a portable gamma-ray spectrometer; QuantAir, a solution for in-field air monitoring; Quant for RayMon10, a quantitative activity analysis tool; and D3S for gamma and neutron detection. The company?s nuclear detection products also comprise MultiSpect Analysis Software; DMatrix, a gamma spectroscopy detector/imager and software; eV3500, a 2D imaging equipment; Sample Inspector, a monitor for detecting the presence of radioactive contaminants; RENA III and DANA II for x-ray and gamma ray spectroscopy; K102 Analyser, a USB-based multichannel analyser for use in nuclear spectroscopy applications; IMELDA for 2D array digital and multispectral imaging; and MARY and XENA for linear array multispectral detection and imaging. In addition, it offers security screening products, such as XRA, a 3D imaging equipment; Identifier to classify the presence of hazardous liquids, aerosols, and gels in containers; and liquid explosive algorithm delivering enhanced recognition. Further, the company provides medical imaging products comprising X-ray bone densitometers and CZT-based reusable medical probes, as well as ASICs. Kromek Group plc was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Sedgefield, the United Kingdom.

Auto Trader Group PLC operates as a digital automotive marketplace. The Company's platform allows its users to buy and sell a range of vehicles, such as cars, trucks and vans.

Halma PLC is a health and safety sensor technology group which manufactures products that detect hazards and also protect assets and people at work in public and commercial buildings. Halma develops technologies and products that are used for analysis in safety, environmental and leisure related markets, including water, to improve personal and public health.

The Sage Group plc is a software publishing company. The Group develops, publishes and distributes accounting and payroll software for personal computer systems. Via its subsidiaries, Sage also maintains a registered user database which provides a market for their related products and services, including computer forms, software support contracts, program upgrades and training.

Computacenter plc provides distributed information technology and related services to corporate and public sector organizations.  The Group's services are divided into three sectors: logistical operations, consolidation and integration, and operational management.  Computacenter has operations in the UK, France, Luxembourg and Belgium.

Renishaw plc designs, develops, manufactures and sells high technology precision measuring and calibration equipment.  The Company's products include advanced metrology and inspection equipment, spectroscopy systems, and computer aided design and manufacturing systems.  Renishaw sells probes and other instruments to a wide range of sectors, internationally.

Softcat PLC provides information technology services. The Company offers commodity sourcing, software licensing, e-procurement, unified communications, and managed services. Softcat serves customers in the United Kingdom.

Spectris plc manufactures, designs and markets products for the electronic control and process instrumentation sectors.  The Company's products include digital indication and control products, industrial computer circuit boards, semiconductor related devices, infrared equipment for temperature measurement, flying controls, gas analysis products, and analytical x-ray systems.

Moneysupermarket.com Group Plc operates finance and travel price comparison websites.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

Arm Holdings US, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs chips used in a range of electronic products. Arm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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ARM Holdings (ARM US)

AMD. Making Sense Of The Proposed Xilinx Acquisition.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Advanced Micro Devices is

William Keating

NVIDIA+Arm. Strategically Solid But Practically Impossible.

The long-anticipated acquisition by NVIDIA of Arm Holdings (ARM LN)

William Keating

Softbank Wrapping up Arm Sale While Wrestling With Alarmed Investors

Sold! Softbank has agreed to sell Arm Holdings (ARM LN) to NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) for more than $40 billion in cash and stock in a deal that could...

Vicki Bryan

Softbank – PM Masa Raising Cash From the Dusty Telco

Softbank looks set to continue its transition into the ultimate momentum fund as PM Masa’s scrabble bag looks set to get a workout. Softbank Group,...

Mio Kato

Softbank – Is Son’s Next Robinhood Trade Going to Be Arm for Nvidia Shares?

As Softbank goes all in on its transformation into an investing company (is Dave Portnoy being hired directly or is Masa familiar enough with...

Mio Kato

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