European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On October 9, Rio Tinto agreed to acquire Arcadium Lithium through a Jersey scheme of arrangement for $5.85/share, a 90% premium, valuing Arcadium’s diluted share capital at $6.7 billion.</li>
<li>As of October 4, Arcadium shares on the NYSE had fallen by approximately 54.1% since listing. Rio Tinto is taking advantage of low lithium prices to acquire high-quality lithium assets.</li>
<li>The offer price is generous: 17.3x 25e EBITDA vs. closest comparable Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at 12.2x 25e EBITDA. Gross spread is 5.1%. I set my PT at $5.85. Long.</li>
</ul>


On October 9, Rio Tinto agreed to acquire Arcadium Lithium through a Jersey scheme of arrangement for $5.85/share, a 90% premium, valuing Arcadium’s diluted share capital at $6.7 billion.
As of October 4, Arcadium shares on the NYSE had fallen by approximately 54.1% since listing. Rio Tinto is taking advantage of low lithium prices to acquire high-quality lithium assets.
The offer price is generous: 17.3x 25e EBITDA vs. closest comparable Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at 12.2x 25e EBITDA. Gross spread is 5.1%. I set my PT at $5.85. Long.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9th October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> reached an agreement to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU/ALTM US)</a> for US$5.85/share (~A$8.70/share), a ~90% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>The proxy statement is now out, with a Scheme Meeting scheduled for 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025. The long stop is the 9th October 2025.</li>
<li>Trading wide-ish at a gross spread of 11.9%, reflecting the timing to secure regulatory approvals - notably from China - as opposed the Offer Price being viewed as opportunistic.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 9th October, Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reached an agreement to buy Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU/ALTM US) for US$5.85/share (~A$8.70/share), a ~90% premium to undisturbed.
The proxy statement is now out, with a Scheme Meeting scheduled for 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025. The long stop is the 9th October 2025.
Trading wide-ish at a gross spread of 11.9%, reflecting the timing to secure regulatory approvals - notably from China - as opposed the Offer Price being viewed as opportunistic.


Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> scheme meeting relating to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.</li>
<li>The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  </li>
<li>Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. </li>
</ul>


The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  
Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. 


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alongside Albemarle and SQM, Arcadium Lithium is the third largest producer of downstream lithium chemicals outside China, capturing the full value chain from lithium resource to battery-grade lithium chemicals. The company has strong exposure to high value-add lithium products and boasts a pipeline of advanced development projects that could potentially more than triple its lithium capacity by 2030. Thanks to its established low-cost asset base and cash flow-generative business, Arcadium should be one of the main beneficiaries of the current cyclical lithium market downturn. Coupled with its strong growth profile, the company is well-positioned to capitalise on the inevitable recovery in lithium demand, driven by the secular decarbonisation trends.

Alongside Albemarle and SQM, Arcadium Lithium is the third largest producer of downstream lithium chemicals outside China, capturing the full value chain from lithium resource to battery-grade lithium chemicals. The company has strong exposure to high value-add lithium products and boasts a pipeline of advanced development projects that could potentially more than triple its lithium capacity by 2030. Thanks to its established low-cost asset base and cash flow-generative business, Arcadium should be one of the main beneficiaries of the current cyclical lithium market downturn. Coupled with its strong growth profile, the company is well-positioned to capitalise on the inevitable recovery in lithium demand, driven by the secular decarbonisation trends.

Arcadium Lithium - When one plus one equals three

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. </li>
<li>Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.</li>
<li>But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. </li>
</ul>



Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. 
Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.
But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. 


Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

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Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)

Rio to Fully Pay for Arcadium Lithium

Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium for $5.85/share at a 90% premium, taking advantage of low lithium prices for high-quality assets.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote

This looks done. Trading at a 11.9%/20.5% gross/annualised return, assuming mid 2025 completion. That looks attractive. The key risk is one of...

David Blennerhassett