Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.</li>
<li>While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.</li>
<li>Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&amp;P 500 is above 4165-4200.
Breadth remains weak within the S&amp;P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.


Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

<ul>
<li>Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.</li>
<li>We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.</li>
<li>The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.</li>
</ul>


Major breakouts for UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities are likely to outperform in the months/years ahead.
We continue to recommend adding exposure to China/Hong Kong, and to add exposure/remain overweight Europe and the UK; these remain our favorite areas to invest in the year ahead.
The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China make up the majority of today's individual stock buy recommendations. Industrials, Materials, and Consumer Discretionary Sectors are all bullish and highlighted today -- add exposure.


UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point, concerns surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus have led to some market setbacks and deterioration in market indicators, however they have not resulted in breakdowns. This is true even for areas of the market most-directly affected, including China (MSCI China) and emerging markets (MSCI EM). For these reasons and, as long as there is no significant additional damage, we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity - especially within EM. We see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment and optimism in the short-term.

Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point, concerns surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus have led to some market setbacks and deterioration in market indicators, however they have not resulted in breakdowns. This is true even for areas of the market most-directly affected, including China (MSCI China) and emerging markets (MSCI EM). For these reasons and, as long as there is no significant additional damage, we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity - especially within EM. We see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment and optimism in the short-term.

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to lead, we’re finally seeing the Energy  Sector contribute. And other economically sensitive Groups, like Casinos and Engineering &amp; Construction, are bullishly inflecting, confirming the risk-on message. Combined, this is (1) a positive sign for the market, and (2) actionable.In today’s report we highlight ideas within the following Groups: Engineering &amp; Construction, Semiconductors, and Auto Dealers.

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to lead, we’re finally seeing the Energy  Sector contribute. And other economically sensitive Groups, like Casinos and Engineering &amp; Construction, are bullishly inflecting, confirming the risk-on message. Combined, this is (1) a positive sign for the market, and (2) actionable.In today’s report we highlight ideas within the following Groups: Engineering &amp; Construction, Semiconductors, and Auto Dealers.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Continue to Lead; Energy Is Bottoming.

Netherlands

Arcadis N.V. offers consulting and engineering services worldwide.  The Company performs feasibility studies, develops projects, offers financial and legal consulting services, assists in the permitting process, and offers design and maintenance services.

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Arcadis NV (ARCAD NA)

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

Breadth remains weak within the $SPX, but we're seeing breadth improve within the small-cap Russell 2000 $IWM. All this points to a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

UK's FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50 Breaking Out; Non-U.S. Outperformance to Continue, Buys in Cyclicals

Recent major breakouts for the FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 50, and Germany's DAX (among others) continue to support our belief that non-U.S. equities...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

EM Pullback Opportunity

Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point,...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Continue to Lead; Energy Is Bottoming.

Rotation is alive and well. Once-dormant Sectors and Groups are helping propel the market to new highs. While Tech, the overachiever, continues to...

Vermilion Research

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