European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The spread has been in positive territory since the announcement. Apollo only bid the minimum requested by the Board. Investors hope for a counteroffer or Apollo sweetening its offer. </li>
<li>Exceeding the 75% threshold is key for Apollo to be able to quickly and effectively carry out the delisting of Applus+, the objective stated in the  offer announcement. </li>
<li>Risk arbitrageurs holding now over 25%, may give that gentle push, otherwise delisting will be in jeopardy. A sweetening/counteroffer in the range €10-10.5/share seems very likely.</li>
</ul>


The spread has been in positive territory since the announcement. Apollo only bid the minimum requested by the Board. Investors hope for a counteroffer or Apollo sweetening its offer. 
Exceeding the 75% threshold is key for Apollo to be able to quickly and effectively carry out the delisting of Applus+, the objective stated in the  offer announcement. 
Risk arbitrageurs holding now over 25%, may give that gentle push, otherwise delisting will be in jeopardy. A sweetening/counteroffer in the range €10-10.5/share seems very likely.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

<ul>
<li>Apparently Elliott is requesting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> conduct a very large buyback and to sell down its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors.</li>
<li>The<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a> deal is not terribly surprising. It's not terribly surprising that it is being done cheaply. It IS being done too cheaply. This is bumpable by force. </li>
</ul>


Apparently Elliott is requesting Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) conduct a very large buyback and to sell down its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP).
Some 17 months after the Cheng Family failed to secure 50%+ of Giordano International (709 HK), the family are now calling an SGM to install friendly directors.
TheLawson (2651 JP) deal is not terribly surprising. It's not terribly surprising that it is being done cheaply. It IS being done too cheaply. This is bumpable by force. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan/Oriental Land, Giordano, JSR, Pasona, Lawson, L'Occitane

<ul>
<li>As totally expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.</li>
</ul>


As totally expected, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on Benefit One Inc (2412 JP).
The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK).

Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

<ul>
<li>We expected a blandiloquent but bletcherous bump for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>.  We got bletcherous.</li>
<li>With the Hang Seng Index dipping below the 15,000 mark earlier this week, time to dust off some old school perspective with Benjamin Graham's Net Nets.</li>
<li>JIC CEO Yokoo reckons the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> deal to be done by March-end. Language is vague. If that means to start by then, that's still 30% annualised.</li>
</ul>


We expected a blandiloquent but bletcherous bump for T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP).  We got bletcherous.
With the Hang Seng Index dipping below the 15,000 mark earlier this week, time to dust off some old school perspective with Benjamin Graham's Net Nets.
JIC CEO Yokoo reckons the JSR Corp (4185 JP) deal to be done by March-end. Language is vague. If that means to start by then, that's still 30% annualised.


Last Week in Event SPACE: T&K TOKA, Liquidated HK Stocks, JSR, Orecorp, Brilliance Auto, Hollysys

Spain

Applus Services, S.A. provides certification services. The Company offers consultancy, engineering, inspection, non-destructive testing, technical assistance, and type approval.

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Applus Services SA (APPS SM)

Apollo/Applus: Blocking Minorities

The spread has been in positive territory since the announcement. Apollo only bid the minimum requested by the Board. Investors hope for a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan/Oriental Land, Giordano, JSR, Pasona, Lawson, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: T&K TOKA, Liquidated HK Stocks, JSR, Orecorp, Brilliance Auto, Hollysys

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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