Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY</li>
<li>Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level</li>
<li>After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. Invest accordingly</li>
</ul>


Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY
Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level
After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. Invest accordingly


For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q324 revenues of $2.84 billion, at the upper end of the guided range, up 10.5% QoQ and up 18.3% YoY</li>
<li>Q424 revenue guide of 2.95 billion, plus or minus $150 million. This represents a ~4% QoQ increase and a 18.6% increase YoY</li>
<li>CEO Rick Wallace: "for years now, we've really had primarily one major player at the leading edge”. That's an interesting comment to make.</li>
</ul>


Q324 revenues of $2.84 billion, at the upper end of the guided range, up 10.5% QoQ and up 18.3% YoY
Q424 revenue guide of 2.95 billion, plus or minus $150 million. This represents a ~4% QoQ increase and a 18.6% increase YoY
CEO Rick Wallace: "for years now, we've really had primarily one major player at the leading edge”. That's an interesting comment to make.


KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

<ul>
<li>Q324 revenues of $4.17 billion, marginally higher than guided, up 7.8% QoQ and up 19.8% YoY. </li>
<li>Guided Q424 revenues of $4.3 billion at the midpoint for a 3.1% QoQ increase and a 14.4% YoY increase.</li>
<li>Q324 was LRCX fifth consecutive growth quarter, however they are still down ~$1.1 billion from their peak quarterly revenue in Q422</li>
</ul>


Q324 revenues of $4.17 billion, marginally higher than guided, up 7.8% QoQ and up 19.8% YoY. 
Guided Q424 revenues of $4.3 billion at the midpoint for a 3.1% QoQ increase and a 14.4% YoY increase.
Q324 was LRCX fifth consecutive growth quarter, however they are still down ~$1.1 billion from their peak quarterly revenue in Q422


LRCX. Cautiously Optimistic For Growth & WFE Outperformance in 2025 & Beyond

<ul>
<li>ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion</li>
<li>Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022</li>
<li>Despite these challenges, ASML's latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025</li>
</ul>


ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion
Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022
Despite these challenges, ASML's latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025


Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle.</li><li>I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between the lines (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chatgpt-o1-strawberry-and-memory" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory)</a></li><li>Fast-forward a week, and it seems that the calls for the end of memory were a bit premature.</li></ul>

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle.I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between the lines (ChatGPT o1 (Strawberry) and Memory)Fast-forward a week, and it seems that the calls for the end of memory were a bit premature.

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

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Applied Materials (AMAT US)

For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

AMAT's so-so quarter & outlook tanked semis as earnings season ends, just like ASML did when it began. Most WFE share prices are now back at early...

William Keating

KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

Q324 $2.84 billion, +10.5% QoQ & +18.3% YoY. Q424 guide $2.95 billion, +4% QoQ & +18.6% YoY. CEO states "for years now, we've really had primarily...

William Keating

LRCX. Cautiously Optimistic For Growth & WFE Outperformance in 2025 & Beyond

Q324 $4.17 billion, +7.8% QoQ, +19.8% YoY. Q424 guide $4.3 billion, +3.1% QoQ, +14.4% YoY. Despite it being their fifth growth quarter in a row,...

William Keating

ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook

ASML downward revision of their 2025 forecast tanked the stock, and semiconductors generally, overnight. Yet they are still projecting 16% YoY...

William Keating

Micron and WFE

Just two weeks ago, I wrote about how I thought this was a mid-memory cycle. I mainly supported the memory companies if you didn’t read between...

Fabricated Knowledge

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