Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Semiconductor wafer fab equipment sales are on track to grow by over 20% sequentially in 2020 with the broader foundry segment growing by around 20% and TSMC more than 30%. Yet, silicon wafer area shipments will struggle to increase by more than 2% and revenues are set to remain flat to slightly down. How do we explain the seeming discrepancy between these growth numbers? Here's our thoughts on the matter.

Semiconductor wafer fab equipment sales are on track to grow by over 20% sequentially in 2020 with the broader foundry segment growing by around 20% and TSMC more than 30%. Yet, silicon wafer area shipments will struggle to increase by more than 2% and revenues are set to remain flat to slightly down. How do we explain the seeming discrepancy between these growth numbers? Here's our thoughts on the matter. 

Silicon Wafers. Why The Tepid Growth Despite Strength in WFE, Foundry & Logic?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Xiaomi reported its 3Q2020 results yesterday (24th November 2020) which saw revenues growing 34.5% YoY while reported OP grew 115.1% YoY to RMB6.7bn from RMB3.1bn a year ago. On adjusted basis, the OP for the quarter grew 7.9% YoY to RMB3.5bn from RMB3.3bn in 3Q2019. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates by 6.2% and 83.7% respectively.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/775/original/image_14518698921606243462074.png?1606243462" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173775"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Company Disclosures</div>We discuss the details below.

Xiaomi reported its 3Q2020 results yesterday (24th November 2020) which saw revenues growing 34.5% YoY while reported OP grew 115.1% YoY to RMB6.7bn from RMB3.1bn a year ago. On adjusted basis, the OP for the quarter grew 7.9% YoY to RMB3.5bn from RMB3.3bn in 3Q2019. Both revenue and OP beat consensus estimates by 6.2% and 83.7% respectively.Source: Company DisclosuresWe discuss the details below.

Xiaomi 3Q: Strong Smartphone Demand Across Domestic and Overseas Markets, Shares Are Still Expensive

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*More Transformation To Come: What a magnificent amazing six months this has been for Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay]. Afterpay provided positive commentary at its Annual General Meeting (AGM) where the next six months look to be even more transformational with operations beginning in the European Union, launches of banking products, and potentially the launch of the business in Asia (likely under the tutelage of Tencent); and*More Magic Fairy Dust: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to a superb return on investment of 394% over the past five plus months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*More Transformation To Come: What a magnificent amazing six months this has been for Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay]. Afterpay provided positive commentary at its Annual General Meeting (AGM) where the next six months look to be even more transformational with operations beginning in the European Union, launches of banking products, and potentially the launch of the business in Asia (likely under the tutelage of Tencent); and*More Magic Fairy Dust: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to a superb return on investment of 394% over the past five plus months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

A short while ago, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20201116-1258362/1258362_tdec215addconsult.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> effective after the close of trading on 18 December. The deletion will be announced later.S&amp;P DJI have also announced they will be conducting a <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/governance/consultations/sp500consultationonimplementationoftslaaddition11-16-20.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">market consultation</a> on whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> should be added to the S&amp;P500 all at once or in two tranches to reduce the impact of the funding trade.From the numbers, the market should be able to absorb the buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> and the selling on the other index constituents pretty easily. However, with Christmas just a week away from the implementation date and possibly lower liquidity, market participants may have different views and the trade could be split into two tranches.

A short while ago, S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices announced the inclusion of Tesla Motors (TSLA US) in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) effective after the close of trading on 18 December. The deletion will be announced later.S&amp;P DJI have also announced they will be conducting a market consultation on whether Tesla Motors (TSLA US) should be added to the S&amp;P500 all at once or in two tranches to reduce the impact of the funding trade.From the numbers, the market should be able to absorb the buying on Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and the selling on the other index constituents pretty easily. However, with Christmas just a week away from the implementation date and possibly lower liquidity, market participants may have different views and the trade could be split into two tranches.

Tesla: S&P500 Inclusion (Finally) Secured

*Another Positive Update Ahead of AGM: The Australia Securities &amp; Investments Commission (ASIC) recently released its second report on the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) space, and the findings appear to be similar to its first report. This is quite positive for the shares of Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay], where Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] holds what is likely to be a growing 5% stake. The AGM for Afterpay is on November 17th; and  *More Magic Fairy Dust: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to a superb return on investment of 394% over the past five plus months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology BNPL company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*Another Positive Update Ahead of AGM: The Australia Securities &amp; Investments Commission (ASIC) recently released its second report on the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) space, and the findings appear to be similar to its first report. This is quite positive for the shares of Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay], where Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent] holds what is likely to be a growing 5% stake. The AGM for Afterpay is on November 17th; and  *More Magic Fairy Dust: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to a superb return on investment of 394% over the past five plus months since the stake announcement, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology BNPL company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways. 

Tencent – This Deal Keeps Rolling Along

United States

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

Silicon Wafers. Why The Tepid Growth Despite Strength in WFE, Foundry & Logic?

With the WFE and foundry segments set for >20% growth in 2020, why are silicon wafer area shipments growing by only 2.4%? Here's what we think the...

William Keating

Xiaomi 3Q: Strong Smartphone Demand Across Domestic and Overseas Markets, Shares Are Still Expensive

Xiaomi reported its 3Q2020 results yesterday (24th November 2020) which saw revenues growing 34.5% YoY while reported OP grew 115.1% YoY to...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Tencent Holdings - After The AGM

TENCENT HOLDING: Afterpay Touch AGM Exhibits Strength Of Franchise Post-Tencent Stake. Next Six Months To Be Transformational.

Thomas J. Monaco

Tesla: S&P500 Inclusion (Finally) Secured

Tesla has been included in the S&P500 after 5 consecutive quarters of profitability. The passive buying on Tesla will be around US$54bn and the...

Brian Freitas

Tencent – This Deal Keeps Rolling Along

TENCENT HOLDINGS: ASICs Second Report On The Buy Now Pay Later Space Is Yet Another Positive For Tencent's Afterpay Investment.

Thomas J. Monaco

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