Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>700 HK: Institutions Report &lt;DnF Mobile&gt;'s First-Month Revenue Exceeds US$270mn; We Expected to Rise Further After June 20 Update(+)</li>
<li>700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Peacekeeper Elite&gt; New Version Adds Two New Playable Modes, Positive Player Recall Performance(+)</li>
<li>BABA US/BIDU US:  LLM failed Chinese Gaokao with Math the biggest challenge(+/-)</li>
</ul>


700 HK: Institutions Report &lt;DnF Mobile&gt;'s First-Month Revenue Exceeds US$270mn; We Expected to Rise Further After June 20 Update(+)
700 HK: Tencent's &lt;Peacekeeper Elite&gt; New Version Adds Two New Playable Modes, Positive Player Recall Performance(+)
BABA US/BIDU US:  LLM failed Chinese Gaokao with Math the biggest challenge(+/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/BABAUS/BIDUUS/TCOMUS/NTESUS/AAPLUS/002624 CH/259960KRX/NVDAUS

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) to achieve approximately a 5% QoQ growth in revenue and relatively flat gross margin (GM) QoQ in 3Q24.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> and HLMC are capable of producing DDICs at 40nm and below.</li>
<li>Novatek is experiencing a decline in demand for 55nm Touch with Display Driver (TDDI) in 3Q24.</li>
</ul>


We expect Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) to achieve approximately a 5% QoQ growth in revenue and relatively flat gross margin (GM) QoQ in 3Q24.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) and HLMC are capable of producing DDICs at 40nm and below.
Novatek is experiencing a decline in demand for 55nm Touch with Display Driver (TDDI) in 3Q24.


Novatek (3034.TT): To Achieve a ~5% QoQ Growth in Revenue and Relatively Flat GM QoQ in 3Q24

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> 3Q24 outlook could be showing a slightly upside quarter over quarter and the gross margin is approaching to ~30%.</li>
<li>We estimate that UMC's overall utilization in 3Q24 will be around 65-70%, with 12” at 70-75% and 8” at 60%.</li>
<li>UMC is benefiting from Novatek shipping OLED DDIC to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> in 3Q24.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) 3Q24 outlook could be showing a slightly upside quarter over quarter and the gross margin is approaching to ~30%.
We estimate that UMC's overall utilization in 3Q24 will be around 65-70%, with 12” at 70-75% and 8” at 60%.
UMC is benefiting from Novatek shipping OLED DDIC to Apple (AAPL US) in 3Q24.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

SenseTime Group  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a>  aims to raise up to US$263m via selling around 4.5% stake.</li>
<li>Sensetime hasn’t had the best of times since listing, however, the shares have rebounded recently on generative AI buzz around the stock.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK)  aims to raise up to US$263m via selling around 4.5% stake.
Sensetime hasn’t had the best of times since listing, however, the shares have rebounded recently on generative AI buzz around the stock.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Sensetime Placement - Seems Highly Opportunistic

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks</li>
<li>The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses</li>
<li>The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles </li>
</ul>


Credit costs, net charge-offs, are rising rapidly for US credit card companies and also for many banks
The 'buy now, pay later' industry is fairly new, Apple's new announcement to exit this business suddenly, may be testimony to stresses
The proportion of US credit card delinquencies/total US delinquencies is now higher than past credit cycles 


United States

Western Digital Corporation is a global provider of solutions for the collection, storage, management, protection and use of digital content, including audio and video. The Company's products include hard drives, solid-state drives, and home entertainment and networking products.

HP Inc. provides imaging and printing systems, computing systems, mobile devices, solutions, and services for business and home. The Company offers products which includes laser and inkjet printers, scanners, copiers and faxes, personal computers, workstations, storage solutions, and other computing and printing systems. HP sells its products worldwide.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and sells server solutions based on modular and open-standard x86 architecture. The Company's products include servers, motherboards, chassis, and accessories.

Seagate Technology Holdings Public Limited Company offers computer hardware products. The Company designs, manufactures, and markets hard disk drives for enterprise applications, client compute applications, client non-compute applications, personal data backup systems, portable external storage systems and digital media systems.

NetApp, Inc. provides storage and data management solutions. The Company's storage solutions include specialized hardware, software, and services that provide storage management for open network environments. NetApp  serves enterprises, government agencies, and universities worldwide.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company provides information technology solutions. The Company offers enterprise security, analytics and data management, applications development and testing, data center care, cloud consulting, and business process services. Hewlett Packard Enterprise serves customers worldwide.

Pure Storage, Inc. provides enterprise storage solutions. The Company offers flash enterprise arrays for high performance workloads, including server consolidation, virtualization desktop, database, and cloud computing. Pure Storage serves customers throughout the United States.

NCR Corporation manufactures financial transaction machines and other products. The Company produces automated teller machines (ATM), self-checkout and self-service kiosks, point-of-sale workstations and scanners; manufactures printer consumable products; and manages networks and servers for ATMs and kiosks.

Avid Technology, Inc. develops, markets, sells, and supports a variety of software and systems for creating and manipulating digital media content. The Company develops and sells digital editing systems and newsroom computer systems, as well as digital audio systems.  Avid's products are used worldwide in production and post-production film, video, and television facilities.

Xerox Holdings Corporation operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries provides printers, scanners, supplies, and accessories. Xerox Holdings serves health care, insurance, government and retail sectors worldwide.

Canon Inc. is a professional and consumer imaging solutions company and patent-holder of digital imaging technologies. The Company's products include networked multifunction devices, digital and analog copiers, computer peripherals, facsimile machines, image filing systems, camcorders, cameras and lenses, semiconductor, and broadcast and medical equipment.

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Quanta Computer Inc. manufactures and markets notebook computers and related peripheral equipment.

FUJIFILM Holdings Corporation develops, sells and services Imaging, Information, and Document Solutions.  Its products include color films, digital cameras, photofinishing products and equipment.  The Group also manufactures medical and graphic art use equipment and materials, FPD materials, and optical devices, and provides services on office copy machines, printers, and related equipment.

NEC Corporation manufactures and markets computers, telecommunication equipment, electronic devices, semiconductors, and software.  The Company's products include printers, modems, cellular phones, plasma display panels (PDP), network systems, memory, integrated circuits (IC), thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD), and printed circuit boards (PCB). NEC operates worldwide.

BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. manufactures display products. The Company produces display panels, sensor devices, and other products. BOE Technology Group supplies its products in mobile phones, tablets, notebooks, monitors, and other fields.

Wistron Corporation manufactures and markets notebook computers, personal computers, and other related information products.

Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets computer servers, computer terminal products, electronic products, and telecommunication equipment.  The Company also develops computer software, provides system integration services, and operates in import and export trading.

Inspur Electronic Infmtn Indtry (000977 CH)

Advantech Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets embedded personal computers (PC), network computing products, industrial automation products, and panel PCs.

Pegatron Corp is a design, manufacturing and service company. The Company produces motherboards, desktop PCs, notebooks, broadband, wireless systems, game consoles, networking, multimedia, LCD TV, and more.

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related accessories. The Company also offers payment, digital content, cloud and advertising services. Apple Inc.'s customers are primarily in consumer, small & mid-sized business, education, enterprise and government markets worldwide.

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Apple (AAPL US)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/BABAUS/BIDUUS/TCOMUS/NTESUS/AAPLUS/002624 CH/259960KRX/NVDAUS

DnF Mobile's first-month revenue exceeds $270mn, Tencent's Peacekeeper Elite adds new playable modes, and Chinese Gaokao math challenge affects LLM.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Novatek (3034.TT): To Achieve a ~5% QoQ Growth in Revenue and Relatively Flat GM QoQ in 3Q24

Novatek Microelectronics Corp expected to see 5% QoQ revenue growth in 3Q24, while facing declining demand for 55nm TDDI. SMIC and HLMC can...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ.

UMC's 3rd quarter outlook shows a slight upside, with estimated overall utilization at 65-70% and benefits from Novatek shipping OLED DDIC to Apple.

Patrick Liao

Sensetime Placement - Seems Highly Opportunistic

SenseTime Group (20 HK) aims to raise up to US$263m via selling around 4.5% stake. In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sumeet Singh

US Banks - Buy Now, Default Later?

Credit card defaults can be major risk for US card companies and banks. Credit cards and net charge-offs are surging. Macro data on credit card...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:700 HK/BABAUS/BIDUUS/TCOMUS/NTESUS/AAPLUS/002624 CH/259960KRX/NVDAUS

​DnF Mobile's first-month revenue exceeds $270mn, Tencent's Peacekeeper Elite adds new playable modes, and Chinese Gaokao math challenge affects LLM.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Novatek (3034.TT): To Achieve a ~5% QoQ Growth in Revenue and Relatively Flat GM QoQ in 3Q24

​Novatek Microelectronics Corp expected to see 5% QoQ revenue growth in 3Q24, while facing declining demand for 55nm TDDI. SMIC and HLMC can...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ.

​UMC's 3rd quarter outlook shows a slight upside, with estimated overall utilization at 65-70% and benefits from Novatek shipping OLED DDIC to Apple.

Patrick Liao

Sensetime Placement - Seems Highly Opportunistic

SenseTime Group (20 HK) aims to raise up to US$263m via selling around 4.5% stake. In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sumeet Singh

US Banks - Buy Now, Default Later?

Credit card defaults can be major risk for US card companies and banks. Credit cards and net charge-offs are surging. Macro data on credit card...

Daniel Tabbush

DnF Mobile's first-month revenue exceeds $270mn, Tencent's Peacekeeper Elite adds new playable modes, and Chinese Gaokao math challenge affects LLM.

Novatek Microelectronics Corp expected to see 5% QoQ revenue growth in 3Q24, while facing declining demand for 55nm TDDI. SMIC and HLMC can...

UMC's 3rd quarter outlook shows a slight upside, with estimated overall utilization at 65-70% and benefits from Novatek shipping OLED DDIC to Apple.