Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In February 2022, I discussed why <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appier-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32165:1" rel="noopener">Appier Group (4180 JP)</a> could be an interesting TOPIX Inclusion Candidate in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusion-pre-event-appier-group-4180-jp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:65459" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Event: Appier Group (4180 JP)</a> </li>
<li>Earlier this month, I reiterated my view in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-inclusions-who-is-ready-aug-2022" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:74615" rel="noopener">TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2022)</a> identifying Appier Group as the best pick among all current TOPIX Inclusion candidates.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, the share price has risen sharply and that has important implications for the company's Prime market ambitions.</li>
</ul>


In February 2022, I discussed why Appier Group (4180 JP) could be an interesting TOPIX Inclusion Candidate in TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Event: Appier Group (4180 JP) 
Earlier this month, I reiterated my view in TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2022) identifying Appier Group as the best pick among all current TOPIX Inclusion candidates.
Since my last insight, the share price has risen sharply and that has important implications for the company's Prime market ambitions.


<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>In this insight, I have defined six key Segment Transfer requirements which prove to be decisive in this process.</li>
<li>At present, there are 51 names that satisfy all of these conditions and there are more names that are close to being that group.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
In this insight, I have defined six key Segment Transfer requirements which prove to be decisive in this process.
At present, there are 51 names that satisfy all of these conditions and there are more names that are close to being that group.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Aug 2022)

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>When we reviewed Appier’s 2021 results we rambled on about the US for about half of our note discussing explosive growth potential. </li>
<li>We said that while Appier touted a &gt;50% QoQ growth rate in the US we suspected it was actually closer to 100%. </li>
<li>In 1Q it accelerated to &gt;180% QoQ growth prompting the sell side to go all surprised Pikachu.</li>
</ul>


When we reviewed Appier’s 2021 results we rambled on about the US for about half of our note discussing explosive growth potential. 
We said that while Appier touted a &gt;50% QoQ growth rate in the US we suspected it was actually closer to 100%. 
In 1Q it accelerated to &gt;180% QoQ growth prompting the sell side to go all surprised Pikachu.


<ul>
<li>Japan-Based AI company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/appier-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32165:1" rel="noopener">Appier Group Inc (4180 JP)</a> announced they had resolved to prepare to apply to change its listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to the Prime Market.</li>
<li>Appier has confirmed that it meets the criteria for the TSE Growth Market but if they move to the Prime Market, that would trigger a TOPIX Inclusion Event.</li>
<li>Below is a look at Appier's potential to satisfy the Section Transfer Requirements and the upside potential of this event.</li>
</ul>


Japan-Based AI company Appier Group Inc (4180 JP) announced they had resolved to prepare to apply to change its listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to the Prime Market.
Appier has confirmed that it meets the criteria for the TSE Growth Market but if they move to the Prime Market, that would trigger a TOPIX Inclusion Event.
Below is a look at Appier's potential to satisfy the Section Transfer Requirements and the upside potential of this event.


TOPIX Inclusion Pre-Event: Appier Group (4180 JP)

<ul>
<li>Appier reported 4Q21 results on Monday with revenue beating consensus by 5% and EBITDA beating by 323%. </li>
<li>The company guided for ¥17.5bn in revenue, above consensus at ¥16.2bn but significantly below our guesstimate of ¥20.8bn. </li>
<li>However, a close look at trends in the US suggest that our initial estimate remains reasonable enough.</li>
</ul>


Appier reported 4Q21 results on Monday with revenue beating consensus by 5% and EBITDA beating by 323%. 
The company guided for ¥17.5bn in revenue, above consensus at ¥16.2bn but significantly below our guesstimate of ¥20.8bn. 
However, a close look at trends in the US suggest that our initial estimate remains reasonable enough.


Appier – Baby Thrown Out With the Bathwater Number One

Japan

Appier Group, Inc. provides artificial intelligence software as a service (AISaaS) services based on data-driven decisions. The Company offers data analysis for potential users predicting and acquiring, relationships building and maintaining, purchasing and action motivation, audience intelligence, and more. Appier Group serves clients across Asian.

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Appier Group (4180 JP)