Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-york-community-bancorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1193:1" rel="noopener">New York Community Bank (NYCB US)</a> for its CRE exposure</li>
<li>Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity </li>
<li>The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters</li>
</ul>


The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by New York Community Bank (NYCB US) for its CRE exposure
Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity 
The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters


US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the large tender offer in late 2021, SBI was always going to try to take Shinsei Bank private. Now they have launched their deal at ¥2,800/share. </li>
<li>That is below fair according to the Board, Special Committee, and implicitly to SBI. But the Shinsei Board has recommended shareholders tender so The Government will vote to squeeze out. </li>
<li>I expect some upset, the possibility of some activism, but it all plays out in the back end in my opinion. Not the front end.</li>
</ul>


After the large tender offer in late 2021, SBI was always going to try to take Shinsei Bank private. Now they have launched their deal at ¥2,800/share. 
That is below fair according to the Board, Special Committee, and implicitly to SBI. But the Shinsei Board has recommended shareholders tender so The Government will vote to squeeze out. 
I expect some upset, the possibility of some activism, but it all plays out in the back end in my opinion. Not the front end.


SBI Launches Opportunistic, Unfair Offer for Shinsei (8303) And Shinsei Board Drops the Ball

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Murakami's entities, City Index Eleventh and Aya Nomura, reported a 5.06% position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iriso-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2801:1" rel="noopener">Iriso Electronics (6908 JP)</a>. The purchases were from 25 July to 13 August.</li>
<li>Murakami's average buy-in price over the last 60 days was JPY2,378.90 per share, a 7.8% discount to the last close price.</li>
<li>Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as Iriso is cash-rich with a P/B less than 1x.</li>
</ul>


Murakami's entities, City Index Eleventh and Aya Nomura, reported a 5.06% position in Iriso Electronics (6908 JP). The purchases were from 25 July to 13 August.
Murakami's average buy-in price over the last 60 days was JPY2,378.90 per share, a 7.8% discount to the last close price.
Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as Iriso is cash-rich with a P/B less than 1x.


Iriso Electronics (6908 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

<ul>
<li>Murakami's entities, City Index Eleventh and City Index Third, reported a 5.05% position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piolax-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7637:1" rel="noopener">Piolax Inc (5988 JP)</a>. The purchases were from 11 June to 6 August over 60 days.</li>
<li>Murakami's average buy-in price over the last 60 days was JPY2,286.61 per share, a 0.7% discount to the last close price.</li>
<li>Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as Piolax is cash-rich with a P/B less than 1x.</li>
</ul>


Murakami's entities, City Index Eleventh and City Index Third, reported a 5.05% position in Piolax Inc (5988 JP). The purchases were from 11 June to 6 August over 60 days.
Murakami's average buy-in price over the last 60 days was JPY2,286.61 per share, a 0.7% discount to the last close price.
Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as Piolax is cash-rich with a P/B less than 1x.


Piolax (5988 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

<ul>
<li>Murakami's entity, City Index Eleventh, and daughter <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100U45I.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2024-07-29T08%3A22%3A26Z&amp;se=2029-07-30T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=X40vp7lhAgBEyEZOwezOlfvKZ1e%2FyjZkQLMnZs1gx%2FI%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 5.05% position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heiwa-real-estate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:749:1" rel="noopener">Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP)</a>. The shares were purchased from 24 May to 22 July.</li>
<li>Murakami's average buy-in price is JPY3,907.38, a 6.7% discount to the last close price. Recently, Simplex (the previous largest shareholder) sold its entire stake to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-co-ltd-aichi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3079:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Co Ltd (4649 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. Recent precedents indicate the latter.</li>
</ul>


Murakami's entity, City Index Eleventh, and daughter reported a 5.05% position in Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP). The shares were purchased from 24 May to 22 July.
Murakami's average buy-in price is JPY3,907.38, a 6.7% discount to the last close price. Recently, Simplex (the previous largest shareholder) sold its entire stake to Taisei Co Ltd (4649 JP).
Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. Recent precedents indicate the latter.


Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Japan

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

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Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)

US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

US CRE loan risk is clearest now with the NYCB charge taken in 4Q23, putting its credit costs now well higher than the recessionary period in...

Daniel Tabbush

SBI Launches Opportunistic, Unfair Offer for Shinsei (8303) And Shinsei Board Drops the Ball

SBI Holdings has announced a Tender Offer for Shinsei Bank, to take out minorities, with a goal to pay the government back quickly. Therein lies...

Travis Lundy

Iriso Electronics (6908 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as...

Arun George

Piolax (5988 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. The former is likely as...

Arun George

Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. Recent precedents indicate...

Arun George

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