Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.</li>
<li>Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in <em>ad hoc</em> methodology.</li>
<li>Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is &gt; 3 days ADV.</li>
</ul>


Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.
Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in ad hoc methodology.
Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is &gt; 3 days ADV.


July TOPIX FFW Rebal - Bigger Than Expected

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I <em>still</em> see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. </li>
<li>There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. 
There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sep24-nikkei-225-review-results-a-slightly-baffling-2-in-2-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157890" rel="noopener">Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT</a>. </li>
<li>That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. </li>
<li>And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT. 
That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. 
And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is here. As before, I see one ADD, one DELETE, one capping, and one Very Dark Horse.</li>
<li>The rules are clear, but not. This causes confusion. There may be unwritten rules keeping the Very Dark Horse out til next time.</li>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> would be capped. I didn't expect that now. That means $2.2bn+ of selling 30Sep and a reverse funding trade.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is here. As before, I see one ADD, one DELETE, one capping, and one Very Dark Horse.
The rules are clear, but not. This causes confusion. There may be unwritten rules keeping the Very Dark Horse out til next time.
The Nikkei Index Team announced Fast Retailing (9983 JP) would be capped. I didn't expect that now. That means $2.2bn+ of selling 30Sep and a reverse funding trade.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions - Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

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Travis Lundy

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

The Nikkei 225 is still likely 2 IN 2 OUT for Mar-25. Doing more would require a very large stock split for Shift (3697) or a stretch to push...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Quiddity March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal Leaderboard. I see 2 in, 2 out. $3bn a side except if Fast Retailing outperforms N225 by 3%, in which case...

Travis Lundy

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review suggests Nikkei Index Committee "discretion" hinting at the scale of the next rebalance. The most interesting bit may...

Travis Lundy

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal Final Predictions - Fastie Capped, Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse and ?s

Nikkei 225 Sep24 Rebal data is done and dusted. I see one automatic DELETE, and one ADD. There is a dark horse possibility to replace that ADD but...

Travis Lundy

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