Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ)</a>, an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amman-mineral-internasional-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:103755" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of IDR1,650-1,775 per share is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.
We previously discussed the IPO in Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of IDR1,650-1,775 per share is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.


Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ)</a>, an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$860 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.</li>
<li>Amman’s Batu Hijau mine when combined with the Elang project has the fifth largest copper equivalent reserves in the world, according to Wood Mackenzie.</li>
<li>The key elements of the investment case rest on world-class reserves, credible development plans, solid top-line growth, high profitability, leading cost competitiveness and cash generation.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$860 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.
Amman’s Batu Hijau mine when combined with the Elang project has the fifth largest copper equivalent reserves in the world, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The key elements of the investment case rest on world-class reserves, credible development plans, solid top-line growth, high profitability, leading cost competitiveness and cash generation.


Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>’s A$28.25 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. </li>
<li>Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.</li>
<li>This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)’s A$28.25 offer for OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. 
Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.
This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> has entered into a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> at A$28.25 per share, a 49.3% premium to the undisturbed price (5 August).</li>
<li>The offer price is attractive. The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (Brazil and Vietnam) approvals. The scheme meeting is in late March/early April 2023. </li>
<li>The key risk is the rise in copper prices. At last close and for the end-April payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) has entered into a SID with BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) at A$28.25 per share, a 49.3% premium to the undisturbed price (5 August).
The offer price is attractive. The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (Brazil and Vietnam) approvals. The scheme meeting is in late March/early April 2023. 
The key risk is the rise in copper prices. At last close and for the end-April payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25

United Kingdom

Antofagasta plc owns and operates copper mines in Chile and conducts exploration activities in Chile and Peru.  The Group also operates a rail network servicing the mining region of northern Chile, as well as operates a concession for the distribution of water in this region.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

Amman has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case

The key elements of the investment case rest on world-class reserves, credible development plans, solid top-line growth, high profitability,...

Arun George

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

Despite perky copper prices, this is a done deal with no hint of a competing bid. At the last close price and for the 2 May payment, the annualised...

Arun George

OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25

This is a done deal barring a dramatic increase in copper prices. At the last close and for the end-April payment, the annualised spread is 4.8%.

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)