Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

China Mengniu Dairy Co / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (2319 HK), ANTA Sports Products Ltd (2020 HK) and Baidu Inc (9888 HK) are all trading at significant discounts to 2023 highs and LT highs.</li>
<li>Today we highlight targeted support levels / buying opportunities in the coming 1-2 days in 2319 HK, 1-3 weeks in 2020 HK and 1-3 months in 9888 HK). </li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (2319 HK), ANTA Sports Products Ltd (2020 HK) and Baidu Inc (9888 HK) are all trading at significant discounts to 2023 highs and LT highs.
Today we highlight targeted support levels / buying opportunities in the coming 1-2 days in 2319 HK, 1-3 weeks in 2020 HK and 1-3 months in 9888 HK). 


HSCEI Stocks to Buy at a Material Discount - Targeted Buying Levels in 2319 HK / 2020 HK / 9888 HK

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The new share placement of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> has caught the market by surprise, but we think long-term story for the company should not be affected.</li>
<li>With proceeds to be used for repayment of outstanding debts, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook the benefits to be generated. </li>
<li>An IPO of Amer Sports is clearly brewing and this represents an important catalyst. Anta's 26.4x and 20.9x FY23 and FY24 PERs do not look stretched relative to earnings growth. </li>
</ul>


The new share placement of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) has caught the market by surprise, but we think long-term story for the company should not be affected.
With proceeds to be used for repayment of outstanding debts, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook the benefits to be generated. 
An IPO of Amer Sports is clearly brewing and this represents an important catalyst. Anta's 26.4x and 20.9x FY23 and FY24 PERs do not look stretched relative to earnings growth. 


Anta Sports (2020 HK): Our View After Placement

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> has completed a top-up placement of 119m shares at a price of HK$99.18/share, an 8.84% discount to the last close of the stock.</li>
<li>The placement has raised HK$11.8bn (US$1.52bn) and the proceeds will be used for the repayment of loans and for daily operational needs.</li>
<li>There will be small passive inflows in the stock at the close on 20/21 April and some small inflows in August/September.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) has completed a top-up placement of 119m shares at a price of HK$99.18/share, an 8.84% discount to the last close of the stock.
The placement has raised HK$11.8bn (US$1.52bn) and the proceeds will be used for the repayment of loans and for daily operational needs.
There will be small passive inflows in the stock at the close on 20/21 April and some small inflows in August/September.


Anta Sports (2020 HK) Placement: Limited Passive Inflows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Anta Sports Products / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>  aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. </li>
<li>Anta hasn’t specified what it aims to do with the money that it's looking to raise, furthermore, it's already net cash.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)  aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. 
Anta hasn’t specified what it aims to do with the money that it's looking to raise, furthermore, it's already net cash.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Anta Sports Placement - A Large Deal to Digest with Unknown Use of Proceeds but Track Record Is Good

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Both Anta and FILA’s performance in 1Q23 were inline with mgt. guidance.</li><li>While Mar-Apr 2023 retail sales growth accelerated, Anta did underperform FILA and other peers.</li><li>However, given the much healthier inventory and retail discounts, there is room for sales to catch up in 5-1 golden week. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Both Anta and FILA’s performance in 1Q23 were inline with mgt. guidance.While Mar-Apr 2023 retail sales growth accelerated, Anta did underperform FILA and other peers.However, given the much healthier inventory and retail discounts, there is room for sales to catch up in 5-1 golden week. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Anta Sports (2020 HK) – A soft 1Q23 but guidance was maintained

China

ANTA Sports Products Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and markets sportswear, including sports footwear and apparel for professionals and the general public.

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Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)

HSCEI Stocks to Buy at a Material Discount - Targeted Buying Levels in 2319 HK / 2020 HK / 9888 HK

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Our View After Placement

With proceeds to be used for debt repayment, expansion in China and pursuing SE Asia markets, we should not overlook long-term benefits. News flow...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK) Placement: Limited Passive Inflows

Anta Sports has completed a top-up placement of 119m shs at HK$99.18, an 8.84% discount to the last close. Given the limited increase in float,...

Brian Freitas

Anta Sports Placement - A Large Deal to Digest with Unknown Use of Proceeds but Track Record Is Good

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) aims to raise around US$1.5bn in its top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the...

Sumeet Singh

Anta Sports (2020 HK) – A soft 1Q23 but guidance was maintained

Both Anta and FILA’s performance in 1Q23 were inline with mgt. guidance. While Mar-Apr 2023 retail sales growth accelerated, Anta did underperform...

CMB International

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