Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

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Event-Driven

<ul><li class="p1">Our fair value estimate is HKD 17 per share, which implies a forward fiscal-year price/earnings of about 15 times, and an enterprise value/EBITDA of roughly 7 times.</li><li class="p1">After about two years of cement pricing declines, a new round of infrastructure spending in highway and railway in western regions, pipeline networks, and sewage treatment has helped awaken cement demand.</li><li class="p1">In the near term, we expect declining energy intensity of China’s GDP growth and excess coal supply to weigh on thermal coal prices. Lower investment in cement supply is also likely to help buoy cement prices.</li></ul>Analysts: Iris Tan &amp; Chokwai Lee

Our fair value estimate is HKD 17 per share, which implies a forward fiscal-year price/earnings of about 15 times, and an enterprise value/EBITDA of roughly 7 times.After about two years of cement pricing declines, a new round of infrastructure spending in highway and railway in western regions, pipeline networks, and sewage treatment has helped awaken cement demand.In the near term, we expect declining energy intensity of China’s GDP growth and excess coal supply to weigh on thermal coal prices. Lower investment in cement supply is also likely to help buoy cement prices.Analysts: Iris Tan &amp; Chokwai Lee

Anhui Conch Cement's 1Q Results In Line; Lower Product Prices Weigh on Margin

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for products with the coming building season and potential stimulus or by traders. All evidence points to the idea that steel price increases are driven by traders and not underlying activity. This appears to create excellent opportunity for a short play in the commodity sector and Hong Kong listed Chinese steel producers. Both steel and coal output and…

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for products with the coming building season and potential stimulus or by traders. All evidence points to the idea that steel price increases are driven by traders and not underlying activity. This appears to create excellent opportunity for a short play in the commodity sector and Hong Kong listed Chinese steel producers. Both steel and coal output and…

Information Technology Consultant

Ishita Jain

In 2013, Xi Jinping launched the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. The aim of the initiative was to connect major Eurasian economies through infrastructure, trade and investment. At the heart of OBOR lay the creation of a 'belt' and a 'road'. Given the scope and geographical spread of the initiative, many expected OBOR to contribute to the regional economies, spur overseas infrastructure spending by China and encourage regional cooperation. As we review OBOR's progress three years since its launch, we'll look at a few OBOR success stories and the risks that still mar the initiative.

In 2013, Xi Jinping launched the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. The aim of the initiative was to connect major Eurasian economies through infrastructure, trade and investment. At the heart of OBOR lay the creation of a 'belt' and a 'road'. Given the scope and geographical spread of the initiative, many expected OBOR to contribute to the regional economies, spur overseas infrastructure spending by China and encourage regional cooperation. As we review OBOR's progress three years since its launch, we'll look at a few OBOR success stories and the risks that still mar the initiative. 

<ul><li class="p1">The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.</li><li class="p1">Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.</li><li class="p1">We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.</li><li class="p1">Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.</li><li class="p1">Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).</li></ul>Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><ul>
<li>Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.</li>
<li>The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.</li>
<li>Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.</li>
<li>Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…</li>
</ul></div>


Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.
The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.
Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.
Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…


China

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited manufactures cement products. The Company produces silicate cements, slag silicate cements, composite silicate cements, cement clinkers, and other products. Anhui Conch Cement Cement markets its products throughout China and worldwide.

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Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK)

Anhui Conch Cement's 1Q Results In Line; Lower Product Prices Weigh on Margin

Our fair value estimate is HKD 17 per share, which implies a forward fiscal-year price/earnings of about 15 times, and an enterprise value/EBITDA...

Morningstar, Inc.

The Future of Chinese Steel Prices

Given the recent run up in Chinese steel prices and the stock prices of producers, it is fair to ask is this being driven by increased demand for...

Christopher Balding

One Belt One Road - Three Years On

In 2013, Xi Jinping launched the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative. The aim of the initiative was to connect major Eurasian economies through...

Ishita Jain

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears. Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged...

Morningstar, Inc.

China - Late 2012-Early 2013 Repeat

Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle. 2015 is no...

Mark Artherton

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