Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of December, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~33% (165 deals &amp; total deal size of US$282bn).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of December, 12 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~33% (165 deals &amp; total deal size of US$282bn).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> declared an interim dividend by way of in-specie distribution of JD.com.  That interim dividend is ~ 3.0%. Not phenomenally large, but hints at possibilities to come. </li>
<li>Dye &amp; Durham come over the top with an all-cash bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a> as Carlyle remains silent after five weeks of due diligence.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> has priced its A-share IPO at RMB 57.58/share which is slightly disappointing in terms of premium to the H-share.  The "reasoning" is basically hogwash. </li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK) declared an interim dividend by way of in-specie distribution of JD.com.  That interim dividend is ~ 3.0%. Not phenomenally large, but hints at possibilities to come. 
Dye &amp; Durham come over the top with an all-cash bid for Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) as Carlyle remains silent after five weeks of due diligence.

China Mobile (941 HK) has priced its A-share IPO at RMB 57.58/share which is slightly disappointing in terms of premium to the H-share.  The "reasoning" is basically hogwash. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent /JD.com, Link Admin, China Mobile, Sydney Airport, Katakura

<ul>
<li>There are currently 45 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Three new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-areas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15497:1" rel="noopener">Western Areas (WSA AU)</a>'s Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO (IGO AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bardoc-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4833:1" rel="noopener">Bardoc Gold (BDC AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a> merger; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinythai-public-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14107:1" rel="noopener">Vinythai (VNT TB)</a>'s delisting Offer. </li>
<li>Keys updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)</a>'s Offer from Dye &amp; Durham, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katakura-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2007:1" rel="noopener">Katakura Industries (3001 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 45 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deals this week: Western Areas (WSA AU)'s Offer from IGO (IGO AU); Bardoc Gold (BDC AU) / St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU) merger; Vinythai (VNT TB)'s delisting Offer. 
Keys updates took place for: Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU)'s Offer from Dye &amp; Durham, Sydney Airport (SYD AU); and Katakura Industries (3001 JP).


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: IGO/Western Areas, Bardoc/St Barbara, Vinythai

<ul>
<li>For the month of November, 14 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was ~34%, with a year-to-date average of ~32% (153 deals &amp; total deal size of US$278bn).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November, 14 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was ~34%, with a year-to-date average of ~32% (153 deals &amp; total deal size of US$278bn).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively.


<ul>
<li>Shortly after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel (KEP SP)</a> revised their Offer to ~S$2.35 and FINAL, Cuscaden has come over the top. This complicates things because of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press (SPH SP)</a>/Keppel Agreement timing.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a>'s discount to NAV of ~50% is bang in line with its 12-month average, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific (293 HK)</a> is close to operating cash breakeven.</li>
<li>Blackstone and affiliates are offering shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> A$12.50/share in cash, a 26.2% premium to last close.</li>
</ul>


Shortly after Keppel (KEP SP) revised their Offer to ~S$2.35 and FINAL, Cuscaden has come over the top. This complicates things because of the Singapore Press (SPH SP)/Keppel Agreement timing.

Swire Pacific (19 HK)'s discount to NAV of ~50% is bang in line with its 12-month average, as Cathay Pacific (293 HK) is close to operating cash breakeven.
Blackstone and affiliates are offering shareholders of Crown Resorts (CWN AU) A$12.50/share in cash, a 26.2% premium to last close.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press, Swire, Crown Resorts, Royal Dutch, Toshiba, Hollysys

Australia

Ampol Limited provides petroleum products. The Company offers petrol and convenience network as well as refining, importing, and marketing fuels and lubricants. Ampol serves defence, mining, transport, marine, agriculture, aviation, and other commercial sectors in Australia.

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Ampol (ALD AU)

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