Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of April, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$22bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was ~36%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of April, 10 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$22bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in April was ~36%.
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>'s CCASS movements are a thing, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>'s NAV discount and implied stub plumb new lows. Again.</li>
<li>Musk has made a non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/twitter-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:667" rel="noopener">Twitter Inc (TWTR US)</a> at US$54.20/share. Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him.</li>
</ul>



JD.com (9618 HK)'s CCASS movements are a thing, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. 

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)'s NAV discount and implied stub plumb new lows. Again.
Musk has made a non-binding proposal for Twitter Inc (TWTR US) at US$54.20/share. Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

<ul>
<li>There are 35 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal. </li>
<li>Two new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wt-microelectronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19712:1" rel="noopener">WT Microelectronics (3036 TT)</a>'s tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/excelpoint-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1774:1" rel="noopener">Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP)</a>; Bain's MBO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tri-stage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5685:1" rel="noopener">Tri Stage Inc (2178 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-areas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15497:1" rel="noopener">Western Areas (WSA AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suchuang-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:304:1" rel="noopener">Suchuang Gas Corp (1430 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 35 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal. 
Two new deals this week: WT Microelectronics (3036 TT)'s tilt for Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP); Bain's MBO for Tri Stage Inc (2178 JP).
Key updates took place for: Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), Western Areas (WSA AU), and Suchuang Gas Corp (1430 HK).


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Excelpoint, Tri Stage, Toyo, Uniti, Western Areas, Suchuang Gas

<ul>
<li>#2 shareholder and erstwhile activist 3D Investment Partners writes a letter to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>'s Board demanding 3 measures before the AGM. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> is assessing Perpetual's cash/scrip Offer provides an indicative price of $6.23/share; however, the wording in the announcement suggests the bid is opportunistic and will be rejected. </li>
<li>Because of rising regulatory requirements for NBFCs, a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> /<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> was to be expected at some point.</li>
</ul>


#2 shareholder and erstwhile activist 3D Investment Partners writes a letter to Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)'s Board demanding 3 measures before the AGM. 

Pendal Group (PDL AU) is assessing Perpetual's cash/scrip Offer provides an indicative price of $6.23/share; however, the wording in the announcement suggests the bid is opportunistic and will be rejected. 
Because of rising regulatory requirements for NBFCs, a HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) /HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) was to be expected at some point.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Pendal, HDFC Bank, YZJ Shipbuilding, BHP, Virtus

Australia

Ampol Limited provides petroleum products. The Company offers petrol and convenience network as well as refining, importing, and marketing fuels and lubricants. Ampol serves defence, mining, transport, marine, agriculture, aviation, and other commercial sectors in Australia.

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Ampol (ALD AU)

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

(Mostly) Asia M&A: April 2022 Roundup

For the month of April, nine new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$22bn. The average premium for the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Excelpoint, Tri Stage, Toyo, Uniti, Western Areas, Suchuang Gas

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Pendal, HDFC Bank, YZJ Shipbuilding, BHP, Virtus

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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