Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 4Q 2023.</li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 18 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 20 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.</li>
<li>We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 4Q 2023.
Of the 38 pair trades, 18 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 20 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2023

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.</li>
<li>We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 7 new adds to MidCap, and 17 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 7 new adds to MidCap, and 17 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows

<ul>
<li>About a week ago, it was announced that Chairman's elder daughter Min-Jung Suh will take a long one year leave of absence.</li>
<li>Chairman Suh is very dissatisfied with the company's results in the past three years and wants to shake up the company to improve its operations, in our view. </li>
<li>Our base case NAV valuation of Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) is 39,611 won, which is 29% higher than current price.</li>
</ul>


About a week ago, it was announced that Chairman's elder daughter Min-Jung Suh will take a long one year leave of absence.
Chairman Suh is very dissatisfied with the company's results in the past three years and wants to shake up the company to improve its operations, in our view. 
Our base case NAV valuation of Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) is 39,611 won, which is 29% higher than current price.


Amorepacific Group: SoTP Valuation and Meaning of Min-Jung Suh Taking One Year Leave of Absence

<ul>
<li>Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the return of Chinese group tours in Korea.</li>
<li>Now that the Chinese government is allowing group tours to South Korea, this will likely lead to a sharp improvement in the company's sales and profits in 2023-2024.</li>
<li>We expect the consensus to raise sales estimates of Amorepacific Corp by about 3-5%+ and operating profit estimates by 20-30%+ in 2023 and 2024. </li>
</ul>


Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) is likely to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the return of Chinese group tours in Korea.
Now that the Chinese government is allowing group tours to South Korea, this will likely lead to a sharp improvement in the company's sales and profits in 2023-2024.
We expect the consensus to raise sales estimates of Amorepacific Corp by about 3-5%+ and operating profit estimates by 20-30%+ in 2023 and 2024. 


Amorepacific Corp: Return of the Korean Cosmetics King With End of Ban on Chinese Group Tours

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco's trading at extreme levels. </li>
<li>Preceding the chart-heavy insight are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco's trading at extreme levels. 
Preceding the chart-heavy insight are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Japex/Inpex, Amorepacific, Wynn, Shimao, Takara, Silicon Integrated/United Micro

South Korea

AMOREPACIFIC Group is an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produce cosmetics and toiletries.

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Amorepacific Group (002790 KS)

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2023

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 4Q 2023. We highlight 38 pair trades that...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows

We currently forecast 53 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices. There are stocks that are potential KOSPI200 adds in December and others that will...

Brian Freitas

Amorepacific Group: SoTP Valuation and Meaning of Min-Jung Suh Taking One Year Leave of Absence

Amorepacific Group Chairman's elder daughter is taking a long one year leave of absence. Chairman Suh is very dissatisfied with the company's...

Douglas Kim

Amorepacific Corp: Return of the Korean Cosmetics King With End of Ban on Chinese Group Tours

We expect the consensus to raise sales estimates of Amorepacific Corp by about 3-5%+ and operating profit estimates by 20-30%+ in 2023 and 2024.

Douglas Kim

StubWorld: Japex/Inpex, Amorepacific, Wynn, Shimao, Takara, Silicon Integrated/United Micro

For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco's trading at extreme levels. Inpex is the key Holdco discussed.

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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