Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Reinold Geiger at HK$34.00, a 15.3% premium to the last close and a 30.8% premium to the undisturbed price (5 February).</li>
<li>The minimum acceptance condition is that the offeror holds at least 90% of the shares held by disinterested shareholders, which enables the offeror to exercise compulsory acquisition rights.</li>
<li>Irrevocable and letters of support to accept represent 37.96% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer (representing an all-time high) should facilitate the offer being declared unconditional.</li>
</ul>



L'Occitane (973 HK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Reinold Geiger at HK$34.00, a 15.3% premium to the last close and a 30.8% premium to the undisturbed price (5 February).
The minimum acceptance condition is that the offeror holds at least 90% of the shares held by disinterested shareholders, which enables the offeror to exercise compulsory acquisition rights.
Irrevocable and letters of support to accept represent 37.96% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer (representing an all-time high) should facilitate the offer being declared unconditional.


L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional VGO at HK$34

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Mao Geping Cosmetics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mao-geping-cosmetics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41297:1" rel="noopener">Mao Geping Cosmetics (1478187D CH)</a> is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is CICC.</li>
<li>Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.</li>
<li>As per F&amp;S, MGC was the only domestic market player among the top ten premium beauty groups in China, ranking eighth by 2022 retail sales.</li>
</ul>



Mao Geping Cosmetics (1478187D CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is CICC.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
As per F&amp;S, MGC was the only domestic market player among the top ten premium beauty groups in China, ranking eighth by 2022 retail sales.


<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reports that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a> draws takeover interest from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone (BX US)</a>, which is considering partnering with Chairman and largest shareholder Reinold Geiger.</li>
<li>Blackstone needs an attractive takeover premium due to the presence of significant disinterested shareholders (Mr. Geiger and Acatis KVG).</li>
<li>Shareholders will be wary of the latest rumour due to Mr Geiger’s aborted offer on 4 September 2023. Nevertheless, the valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that L'Occitane (973 HK) draws takeover interest from Blackstone (BX US), which is considering partnering with Chairman and largest shareholder Reinold Geiger.
Blackstone needs an attractive takeover premium due to the presence of significant disinterested shareholders (Mr. Geiger and Acatis KVG).
Shareholders will be wary of the latest rumour due to Mr Geiger’s aborted offer on 4 September 2023. Nevertheless, the valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.


L’Occitane (973 HK): Blackstone Pondering an Offer

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Mar 29th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD7.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We estimate short interest decreased by 2.5% WoW and highlight short interest changes in Posco.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Mar 29th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD7.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We estimate short interest decreased by 2.5% WoW and highlight short interest changes in Posco.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 29th): Posco

South Korea

Amorepacific Corporation develops, manufactures, and exports skin care, make-up, and fragrance products. The Company also produces and markets personal care and health-related products, such as shampoos, soaps, toothpastes, and health teas.

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Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional VGO at HK$34

The key condition is that the offeror holds at least 90% of the disinterested shares. An attractive offer (representing an all-time high) should...

Arun George

Mao Geping Cosmetics Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Mao Geping Cosmetics (1478187D CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunner on the deal is CICC.

Clarence Chu

L’Occitane (973 HK): Blackstone Pondering an Offer

L’Occitane is on a trading halt pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Bloomberg reports that Blackstone is nearing a privatisation deal...

Arun George

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 29th): Posco

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week. We estimate short interest decreased by 2.5% WoW and highlighted short interest changes in...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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