Mid-Small Cap specialist | Equities | India, Nurture Capital Advisory

Nurture Capital Advisory

Mid-Small Cap specialist | Equities | India

Buyside Outfit and Advisory Services

We are a Buyside outfit and also offer Advisory services. Most notes published here are written for our consumption. These notes offer readers a perspective of our approach to scanning sectors and distilling ideas to constructing a bottom-up Equity portfolio. Combining top down and bottom-up approaches to identifying themes/ value stocks at inflexion Sector agnostic | Value oriented - Inflexion approach | Bottom-Up Ideas Biased towards Sustainability, ESG Team is Wall Street Journal, ET Now - Star mine Lipper, Asia money rated.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cement sector is witnessing a margin recovery and valuations are reasonable. </li>
<li>Ambuja Cements, the second largest in the sector provides a tactical opportunity for a valuation pop. </li>
<li>Avoid | as any inclusion amounts to adding to the risk rather than to the return of the portfolio. </li>
</ul>


Cement sector is witnessing a margin recovery and valuations are reasonable. 
Ambuja Cements, the second largest in the sector provides a tactical opportunity for a valuation pop. 
Avoid | as any inclusion amounts to adding to the risk rather than to the return of the portfolio. 


Ambuja Cements - Quick Insight on Valuation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With only 5 trading days to go in the review period, we see no constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pidilite-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20573:1" rel="noopener">Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN)</a> is the highest ranked non-index constituent, but its free float market cap does not exceed 1.5x the free-float market cap of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a>. </li>
<li>We do not expect LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) to be added to the index in March post the merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larsen-toubro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2499:1" rel="noopener">Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7297:1" rel="noopener">Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


With only 5 trading days to go in the review period, we see no constituent changes to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) at the March rebalance.

Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) is the highest ranked non-index constituent, but its free float market cap does not exceed 1.5x the free-float market cap of Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN). 
We do not expect LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) to be added to the index in March post the merger between Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN) and Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN). 


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes Likely in March

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Healthy volumes; mixed pricing trend across regions: We estimate that our coverage universe of 15 companies will deliver 10/8% YoY/QoQ volume growth (three-year CAGR: +6%) in Q3FY23</li><li>We expect average utilisation of ~77% vs 72/74% QoQ/YoY. Cement prices increased ~2% QoQ across India in Q3</li><li>Prices increased ~4-6% QoQ each in the east and south regions, there was 1-2% rise in the west, while the north was flattish and the central region witnessed a ~1% correction QoQ</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Healthy volumes; mixed pricing trend across regions: We estimate that our coverage universe of 15 companies will deliver 10/8% YoY/QoQ volume growth (three-year CAGR: +6%) in Q3FY23We expect average utilisation of ~77% vs 72/74% QoQ/YoY. Cement prices increased ~2% QoQ across India in Q3Prices increased ~4-6% QoQ each in the east and south regions, there was 1-2% rise in the west, while the north was flattish and the central region witnessed a ~1% correction QoQContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q3FY23 Results Preview): Decent volume offtake, recovery in profitability

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Traditionally, H2 (second half of the year) stands out to be a favourable period for cement producers from a demand perspective as it revives after the end of the monsoon season.</li><li>Post witnessing soft demand in Oct’22 due to festivity, demand revived sharply in Nov’22 and the trend continued in Dec’22 as well, which was driven by higher retail and institutional demand.</li><li>Institutional demand was more robust led by increasing construction activity in most of the regions as Q2FY23 had been impacted due to an extended monsoon.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Traditionally, H2 (second half of the year) stands out to be a favourable period for cement producers from a demand perspective as it revives after the end of the monsoon season.Post witnessing soft demand in Oct’22 due to festivity, demand revived sharply in Nov’22 and the trend continued in Dec’22 as well, which was driven by higher retail and institutional demand.Institutional demand was more robust led by increasing construction activity in most of the regions as Q2FY23 had been impacted due to an extended monsoon.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Q3fy23 Preview - Cost Pressure to Ease, Demand Outlook Encouraging

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> ("ADL") on Tuesday announced a Board Meeting for Friday to consider capital raising options. Multiple media sources suggest a record Indian Follow-on Public Offering of INR200bn.</li>
<li>The company has bid for/bought multiple assets recently, and proposed investments plan of up to US$150bn in 10yrs in renewables, cement, airports, healthcare to aim at a US$1trln valuation.</li>
<li>This will get complicated, interesting, and is not necessarily going to come out well.</li>
</ul>



Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) ("ADL") on Tuesday announced a Board Meeting for Friday to consider capital raising options. Multiple media sources suggest a record Indian Follow-on Public Offering of INR200bn.
The company has bid for/bought multiple assets recently, and proposed investments plan of up to US$150bn in 10yrs in renewables, cement, airports, healthcare to aim at a US$1trln valuation.
This will get complicated, interesting, and is not necessarily going to come out well.


Adani Enterprises - A Record Follow-On Public Offering May Be in the Works

India

Grasim Industries Limited is a diversified operating company and part of the Aditya Birla group. The group manufactures a wide range of products, including Viscose Staple Fiber(VSF), cement, chemicals and textiles.

Shree Cement Ltd. manufactures cement and cement products. The Company sells its products primarily in Northern India under its own brand names.

ACC Limited  manufactures a range of cements and blended cements. The Company also manufactures gypsum and refractory products such as Brown Tabular Alumina. The Company provides turnkey and application consulting services for setting up and operating cement plants and refractories. The Company owns cement plants throughout India.

JK Cement Limited produces and manufactures Portland and White cement products.

Dalmia Bharat Limited holds cement and power businesses. The Company's interests include cement, power and refractory businesses.

The Ramco Cements Limited manufactures cement, ready mix concrete and dry mix products.  The Company also exports  cement and owns and operates a private sector wind mill power generating farm.

Century Textiles and Industries Ltd. manufactures cement, cotton textiles and cotton yarn. The Company manufactures denim, shirts, suits, fabrics and dress materials, bed linens, home furnishings, viscose filament yarn, viscose tire yarn, caustic soda, sulphuric acid, liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid, writing and printing papers, packaging board, and rayon and wood-based pulp.

Orient Refractories Ltd. fabricates metal products.  The Company manufactures slide gate plates, nozzles and well blocks, tundish nozzles, bottom purging refractories and top purging lances, slag arresting darts, basic spray mass for tundish working lining, and castables.

Birla Corporation Limited is a manufacturing company that produces and sells cement, automobile trim parts, jute goods, synthetic and cotton yarns, and PVC floor coverings and coated fabrics. The Group also manufactures calcium carbide, ferromanganese, silico manganese, oxygen and iron and steel castings.

Ultra Tech Cement Ltd. produces a wide range of cement products. This Company represents the cement operations of Larsen & Toubro which were spun-off into a separate entity in which Grasim Industries holds a majority interest.

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited manufactures cement products. The Company produces silicate cements, slag silicate cements, composite silicate cements, cement clinkers, and other products. Anhui Conch Cement Cement markets its products throughout China and worldwide.

The Siam Cement Public Company Limited is a diversified industrial company. The Company's operations include cement manufacturing, petrochemicals manufacturing, paper manufacturing, building product manufacturing, and distribution.

Eagle Materials Inc. manufactures and distributes cement, gypsum wallboard, recycled paperboard, and concrete and aggregates.  The Company's products are used in the construction of homes, commercial and industrial buildings, and governmental buildings across the United States.

James Hardie Industries Plc manufactures building products for new home construction and remodeling.  The Company's products include fiber cement siding, backerboard, and pipe. James Hardie Industries operates in the United States, Australia and New Zealand.

Taiwan Cement Corporation manufactures and markets cement.  The Company's products include Portland cement, high strength cement, oil well cement, and sludge treatment agents.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in transportation, construction, and information products businesses.

Buzzi Unicem S.p.A., through subsidiaries, produces and markets building materials.  The Company produces cement and ready-mix concrete in Italy and the United States.

Heidelberg Materials AG produces and markets building materials and solutions. The Company offers cement, aggregates, and ready-mixed concrete. Heidelberg Materials serves customers worldwide.

Cemex SAB de CV is a building products company. The Company produces, distributes, and markets cement, ready-mix concrete, aggregates, and related building materials. Cemex operates throughout the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.

Boral Limited is a manufacturer and supplier of building and construction materials in Australia and internationally.  Boral supplies building products to the residential and commercial building markets, operates clay brick business in the U.S. (for clay roof tiles and fly ash) along with the production of plasterboard, timber products and concrete products.

Ambuja Cements Limited manufactures cement in India. The Company owns specially designed ships and terminals for bulk transportation of its products. Ambuja Cement sells most of its products domestically, but also has a subsidiary that markets the Group's items in Sri Lanka.

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Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN)

Ambuja Cements - Quick Insight on Valuation

Ambuja Cements, the second largest in the sector provides a tactical opportunity for a valuation pop. Avoid as it amplifies risk rather than adding...

Nurture Capital Advisory

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes Likely in March

We do not expect any changes in March since Pidilite's average FFMC does not exceed 1.5x the FFMC for BPCL. There will be an adhoc change prior to...

Brian Freitas

Cement (Q3FY23 Results Preview): Decent volume offtake, recovery in profitability

We estimate that our coverage universe of 15 companies will deliver 10/8% YoY/QoQ volume growth (three-year CAGR: +6%) in Q3FY23

HDFC Securities

Cement Q3fy23 Preview - Cost Pressure to Ease, Demand Outlook Encouraging

Traditionally, H2 (second half of the year) stands out to be a favourable period for cement producers from a demand perspective as it revives after...

Axis Direct

Adani Enterprises - A Record Follow-On Public Offering May Be in the Works

ADANI ENTERPRISES has a board meeting Friday to discuss/approve a capital raise. The stock is up 25x+ in 3yrs and trades at 20x book and 300x PER...

Travis Lundy

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