India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ambuja-cements-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14745:1" rel="noopener">Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN)</a>, established in 1983 by traders Narotam Sekhsaria and Suresh Neotia, leveraged strategic foresight to become a premier Indian cement giant within the diversified Adani Group.</li>
<li>In 2022, Adani acquired Ambuja Cement at INR 385/share, valuing it at INR 49,620 crore ($6.4 billion), at EBITDA/ton levels (INR900-INR1,000) similar to the company's current performance.</li>
<li>Ambuja Cement is strategically positioned to achieve a substantial 44% increase in its cement production capacity by FY28, reaching a total of 140 MTPA from the current 97 MTPA.</li>
</ul>



Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN), established in 1983 by traders Narotam Sekhsaria and Suresh Neotia, leveraged strategic foresight to become a premier Indian cement giant within the diversified Adani Group.
In 2022, Adani acquired Ambuja Cement at INR 385/share, valuing it at INR 49,620 crore ($6.4 billion), at EBITDA/ton levels (INR900-INR1,000) similar to the company's current performance.
Ambuja Cement is strategically positioned to achieve a substantial 44% increase in its cement production capacity by FY28, reaching a total of 140 MTPA from the current 97 MTPA.


The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements:  Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Capacity expansion to drive volume and revenue growth: The company is expanding its capacity from the current 97 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA of Orient Cement) to 118 MTPA, with the ongoing expansion set to be completed in phases over FY25-FY26.</li><li>Additionally, it is exploring further growth opportunities to achieve a combined capacity of 140 MTPA by FY28.</li><li>This expansion is expected to support the company’s sustained growth momentum. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capacity expansion to drive volume and revenue growth: The company is expanding its capacity from the current 97 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA of Orient Cement) to 118 MTPA, with the ongoing expansion set to be completed in phases over FY25-FY26.Additionally, it is exploring further growth opportunities to achieve a combined capacity of 140 MTPA by FY28.This expansion is expected to support the company’s sustained growth momentum. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ambuja Cements Limited - Beat Largely Driven By Higher Incentives & Other Income

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-regulator-probing-some-adani-offshore-deals-possible-rule-violations-2023-04-01/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">probing offshore deals</a> for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.</li>
<li>GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." </li>
<li>Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. </li>
</ul>


The Adani names are seeing new news and commentary. SEBI is probing offshore deals for rules violations, SEBI filed an interim report Sunday with the Court, Cements are refinancing US$4bn.
GQG's Jain was interviewed by Bloomberg TV in NY saying he sees his Adani basket being a "multi-bagger in five years." 
Assuming growth and margins equivalent to peer max rates, all profits reinvested, and 100% gain in stock price in 5yrs, NP CAGR=33%, 2028 EV/EBITDA average of four names is 29.4x. 


GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

<ul><li>Capacity expansion to drive volume and revenue growth: The company is expanding its capacity from the current 97 mtpa (including 8.5 mtpa of Orient Cement) to 118 mtpa, with the existing expansion expected to be completed in phases over FY25-FY26.</li><li>Additionally, the company is pursuing growth opportunities and aims to achieve a combined capacity of 140 mtpa by FY28.</li><li>This expansion will support the company’s continued growth momentum. We project the company to grow its volume and revenue at CAGRs of 10% and 8%, respectively, over FY24-FY26E.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Capacity expansion to drive volume and revenue growth: The company is expanding its capacity from the current 97 mtpa (including 8.5 mtpa of Orient Cement) to 118 mtpa, with the existing expansion expected to be completed in phases over FY25-FY26.Additionally, the company is pursuing growth opportunities and aims to achieve a combined capacity of 140 mtpa by FY28.This expansion will support the company’s continued growth momentum. We project the company to grow its volume and revenue at CAGRs of 10% and 8%, respectively, over FY24-FY26E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ambuja Cements Limited - Improved Operating Performance; Retain BUY

<ul><li>Given the company’s superior positioning and increasing foothold in South India, along with the cost-saving initiatives it has undertaken and synergies with other Adani group companies, the growth momentum is expected to continue.</li><li>Additionally, considering the government's strong focus on infrastructure development and affordable housing, increasing private capex, and robust real estate demand, we anticipate ACL to deliver industry-leading performance moving forward.</li><li>We will evaluate the company on a consolidated basis from Q1FY25 onwards to reflect the overall growth trajectory. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given the company’s superior positioning and increasing foothold in South India, along with the cost-saving initiatives it has undertaken and synergies with other Adani group companies, the growth momentum is expected to continue.Additionally, considering the government's strong focus on infrastructure development and affordable housing, increasing private capex, and robust real estate demand, we anticipate ACL to deliver industry-leading performance moving forward.We will evaluate the company on a consolidated basis from Q1FY25 onwards to reflect the overall growth trajectory. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ambuja Cements Limited - Weak Quarter; Cost Optimization & New Capacity to Drive Growth

India

Ambuja Cements Limited manufactures cement in India. The Company owns specially designed ships and terminals for bulk transportation of its products. Ambuja Cement sells most of its products domestically, but also has a subsidiary that markets the Group's items in Sri Lanka.

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Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN)

The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

Ambuja Cements, founded by Sekhsaria and Neotia, was acquired by Adani in 2022 for INR 49,620 crore, with plans to increase production capacity to...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Ambuja Cements Limited - Beat Largely Driven By Higher Incentives & Other Income

The company is expanding its capacity from the current 97 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA of Orient Cement) to 118 MTPA, with the ongoing expansion set to...

Axis Direct

GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

Ambuja Cements Limited - Improved Operating Performance; Retain BUY

Capacity expansion to drive volume and revenue growth: The company is expanding its capacity from the current 97 mtpa (including 8.5 mtpa of Orient...

Axis Direct

Ambuja Cements Limited - Weak Quarter; Cost Optimization & New Capacity to Drive Growth

We are upgrading our rating from HOLD to BUY on the stock, with a target price of Rs 750 per share, implying an upside of 10% from the current...

Axis Direct

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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The Beat Ideas: Adani Cements: Massive 140 MTPA Capacity Expansion, A Roadmap to FY28

​Ambuja Cements, founded by Sekhsaria and Neotia, was acquired by Adani in 2022 for INR 49,620 crore, with plans to increase production capacity to...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Ambuja Cements Limited - Beat Largely Driven By Higher Incentives & Other Income

The company is expanding its capacity from the current 97 MTPA (including 8.5 MTPA of Orient Cement) to 118 MTPA, with the ongoing expansion set to...

Axis Direct

GQG Calls Adani Names 5Yr "Multi-Baggers" - It Works at 30% EPS CAGR if You Torture the Numbers

This is an update on the Adani Names where GQG Partners purchased a US$1.8bn stake from the Promoters themselves. They are up 25% in a month. Which...

Travis Lundy

Ambuja Cements Limited - Improved Operating Performance; Retain BUY

Capacity expansion to drive volume and revenue growth: The company is expanding its capacity from the current 97 mtpa (including 8.5 mtpa of Orient...

Axis Direct

Ambuja Cements Limited - Weak Quarter; Cost Optimization & New Capacity to Drive Growth

We are upgrading our rating from HOLD to BUY on the stock, with a target price of Rs 750 per share, implying an upside of 10% from the current...

Axis Direct

Ambuja Cements, founded by Sekhsaria and Neotia, was acquired by Adani in 2022 for INR 49,620 crore, with plans to increase production capacity to...