Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The AI GPU market has been exploding, and this has turned the DRAM market's downturn into a strong upturn</li>
<li>With this growth, DRAM manufacturers have seen their business turn around, thanks to increased use of HBM</li>
<li>Two questions concern us: Will AI growth last? Will increased competition in HBM DRAM create a price collapse?</li>
</ul>


The AI GPU market has been exploding, and this has turned the DRAM market's downturn into a strong upturn
With this growth, DRAM manufacturers have seen their business turn around, thanks to increased use of HBM
Two questions concern us: Will AI growth last? Will increased competition in HBM DRAM create a price collapse?


The Big Question: Can Today's AI Surge Last?

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

<ul><li>I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.</li><li>The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .</li><li><p>Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.</p><div></div></li></ul>

I was today-years-old when I learned that Europe has its own version of the Magnificent 7; the basket of giga-cap US tech companies comprised of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then it was just “FAAMG”) .Namely, they were market leaders in the STOXX 600 Europe Index, they had grown to become an increasingly larger share of the market, and their earnings had far outpaced the broader index.

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/BIDU: Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI (+)</li>
<li>3690 HK: Local news said Douyin has deemphasized take out business (+)</li>
<li>PDD/4689 JP/AMZN/4385 JP/4755 JP: Data indicates that Temu is particularly popular in Japan (+/~/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/BIDU: Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI (+)
3690 HK: Local news said Douyin has deemphasized take out business (+)
PDD/4689 JP/AMZN/4385 JP/4755 JP: Data indicates that Temu is particularly popular in Japan (+/~/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/1810 HK/BIDU/JD/BABA/PDD/1024 HK/3690 HK/WB/4689JP/4755JP

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F</li>
<li>Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.</li>
<li>In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.  </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects the foundry, semiconductor, electronics, industrial technology, and global GDP to be $0.25 trillion, $1 trillion, $3 trillion, $12 trillion, and $145 trillion, respectively, in 2030F
Transistor technology is constantly evolving, and FinFET architecture will be followed by Nanosheet and others.
In the transition, the automotive market belongs to IDM companies, but the utility of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) could fall under Foundry territory.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 31 January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> announced a 3:1 stock split. For cognoscenti, that meant a Dow Jones Industrial Avg might be in the offing.</li>
<li>The last change to the index was in Aug-2020, spurred by the 4:1 split for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>. This time, the likely deletion candidate was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walgreens-boots-alliance-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1118:1" rel="noopener">Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US)</a>. </li>
<li>Indeed, last week, the Index Keepers announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> would replace Walgreens Boots Alliance on 26 Feb (i.e. WBA would be booted on the close of 23 Feb).</li>
</ul>


On 31 January, Walmart (WMT US) announced a 3:1 stock split. For cognoscenti, that meant a Dow Jones Industrial Avg might be in the offing.
The last change to the index was in Aug-2020, spurred by the 4:1 split for Apple (AAPL US). This time, the likely deletion candidate was Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US). 
Indeed, last week, the Index Keepers announced Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) would replace Walgreens Boots Alliance on 26 Feb (i.e. WBA would be booted on the close of 23 Feb).


Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) - How Do Dow Jones Deletes Do Historically?

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

The Big Question: Can Today's AI Surge Last?

Today there's a surge in AI spending, and this has led to a recovery for DRAM makers. This Insight questions where this money is coming from, and...

Jim Handy

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/1810 HK/BIDU/JD/BABA/PDD/1024 HK/3690 HK/WB/4689JP/4755JP

Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI; Douyin shifts focus away from takeout; and Temu gains popularity in Japan.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

Patrick Liao

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) - How Do Dow Jones Deletes Do Historically?

Walgreens was given the boot from the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday at the close. Historically, DELETEs outperform their ADDs and DJIA in...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Big Question: Can Today's AI Surge Last?

Today there's a surge in AI spending, and this has led to a recovery for DRAM makers. This Insight questions where this money is coming from, and...

Jim Handy

Europe's Magnificent Eleven

The GRANOLAS Dubbed the “Granolas” by Goldman Sachs in 2020, this basket was chosen because it echoed themes present amongst the Mag 7 (back then...

Investment Talk

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: 700 HK/1810 HK/BIDU/JD/BABA/PDD/1024 HK/3690 HK/WB/4689JP/4755JP

​Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI; Douyin shifts focus away from takeout; and Temu gains popularity in Japan.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Foundry Market Forecast in 2030F; TSMC Had Developed The 2nm Nanosheet.

​TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...

Patrick Liao

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA US) - How Do Dow Jones Deletes Do Historically?

Walgreens was given the boot from the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday at the close. Historically, DELETEs outperform their ADDs and DJIA in...

Travis Lundy

Google's Gemma is an important move for client-side AI; Douyin shifts focus away from takeout; and Temu gains popularity in Japan.

TSMC predicts significant growth in various industries by 2030F, with evolving transistor technology and potential shifts in market ownership for...