Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics</li>
<li>We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.</li>
<li>SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.</li>
</ul>


We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics
We still believe the S&amp;P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.
SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we're not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.


Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Smoore International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's National Team was steadily buying ETF's during and after the Third Plenum.  Southbound Connect Flows continue to be positive during July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smoore-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28241:1" rel="noopener">Smoore International Holdings (6969 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind Science &amp; Technology (2208 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>  benefited from positive news sentiment this week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> suffered on negative news, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> continued its pullback in concert with the retail food sector.</li>
</ul>


China's National Team was steadily buying ETF's during and after the Third Plenum.  Southbound Connect Flows continue to be positive during July.

Smoore International Holdings (6969 HK) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science &amp; Technology (2208 HK) and Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)  benefited from positive news sentiment this week.

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) and ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) suffered on negative news, while Meituan (3690 HK) continued its pullback in concert with the retail food sector.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 26)

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS have Bullish technical signals in a challenging market.</li>
<li>After a 3 year run from the COVID lows, Samsonite has confirmed a Bearish technical signal.</li>
<li>Hautai Securities hits an all time low and becomes a "Catch a Falling Knife" chart.</li>
</ul>


Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS have Bullish technical signals in a challenging market.
After a 3 year run from the COVID lows, Samsonite has confirmed a Bearish technical signal.
Hautai Securities hits an all time low and becomes a "Catch a Falling Knife" chart.


Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A bombed-out sector down 80% from the peak is worth another look</li>
<li>Weaker companies have exited the industry or have already gone under </li>
<li>The sector ETF has a good risk reward  with catalysts ahead</li>
</ul>


A bombed-out sector down 80% from the peak is worth another look
Weaker companies have exited the industry or have already gone under 
The sector ETF has a good risk reward  with catalysts ahead


Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are many high dividend-yielding U.S. stocks. However, taxes on dividends are complex, qualified dividends max at 20%, non-qualified max at 37%, and foreigners max at 30%   </li>
<li>These high-yielding stocks appear unloved and didn't move much in tandem with the U.S. indexes, suggesting a potential laggard investment opportunity </li>
<li>If you have made your bounty from the market surge and looking for safe shelter among the laggards and dividend payers, the U.S. might just be the place for you </li>
</ul>


There are many high dividend-yielding U.S. stocks. However, taxes on dividends are complex, qualified dividends max at 20%, non-qualified max at 37%, and foreigners max at 30%   
These high-yielding stocks appear unloved and didn't move much in tandem with the U.S. indexes, suggesting a potential laggard investment opportunity 
If you have made your bounty from the market surge and looking for safe shelter among the laggards and dividend payers, the U.S. might just be the place for you 


Show Me The (Dividend) Money - Play on the U.S. High Dividend Yielding Stocks

United States

Altria Group, Inc. is a holding company.  The Company, through subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products, including cigars and pipe tobacco.  Altria holds an interest in a brewery company.

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Altria Group (MO US)

Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Downgrading our long-term $SPX outlook to neutral (bullish since early-November 2023) due to deteriorating market dynamics; Upgrading Real Estate...

Vermilion Research

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 26)

China's National Team continued buying in the ETF market. Smoore International, Xinjiang Goldwind and Hisense had positive news sentiment, while...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

Share prices of Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS had Bullish technical signals while Samsonite and Huatai Securities have...

David Mudd

MSOS – Going Higher!

A bombed-out sector showing good potential upside. The sector ETF offers good risk reward with catalysts on the horizon.

Rikki Malik

Show Me The (Dividend) Money - Play on the U.S. High Dividend Yielding Stocks

High dividend-yielding US stocks offer potential investment opportunities, despite complex dividend taxes and lack of movement with US indexes....

Mohshin Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

Downgrading our long-term $SPX outlook to neutral (bullish since early-November 2023) due to deteriorating market dynamics; Upgrading Real Estate...

Vermilion Research

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 26)

China's National Team continued buying in the ETF market. Smoore International, Xinjiang Goldwind and Hisense had positive news sentiment, while...

David Mudd

Technically Speaking: Breakouts and Breakdowns in HONG KONG (July 10)

Share prices of Smoore International, China Communication Services and GDS had Bullish technical signals while Samsonite and Huatai Securities have...

David Mudd

MSOS – Going Higher!

​A bombed-out sector showing good potential upside. The sector ETF offers good risk reward with catalysts on the horizon.

Rikki Malik

Show Me The (Dividend) Money - Play on the U.S. High Dividend Yielding Stocks

​High dividend-yielding US stocks offer potential investment opportunities, despite complex dividend taxes and lack of movement with US indexes....

Mohshin Aziz

A bombed-out sector showing good potential upside. The sector ETF offers good risk reward with catalysts on the horizon.

High dividend-yielding US stocks offer potential investment opportunities, despite complex dividend taxes and lack of movement with US indexes....