Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<p>In this insight, we discuss our initial thoughts on the Krafton IPO. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap of the company is expected to be from 23.7 trillion won to 28.8 trillion won (IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won).</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Our base case valuation of Krafton is an implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won or 465,055 won per share. Our valuation sensitivity suggests a valuation range from 18.3 trillion won to 30.6 trillion won. Our base case valuation of 465,055 won is close to the low end of the IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won. <strong>Given the lack of upside, we would PASS on this IPO deal. </strong></p></div>

In this insight, we discuss our initial thoughts on the Krafton IPO. According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap of the company is expected to be from 23.7 trillion won to 28.8 trillion won (IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won).Our base case valuation of Krafton is an implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won or 465,055 won per share. Our valuation sensitivity suggests a valuation range from 18.3 trillion won to 30.6 trillion won. Our base case valuation of 465,055 won is close to the low end of the IPO price range of 458,000 won to 557,000 won. Given the lack of upside, we would PASS on this IPO deal. 

Initial Thoughts on the Krafton IPO Valuation

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><p>Roblox got sued...thats great news...to us. Says the platform's power is growing. Gamestop intriguing and IAC being IAC. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div></div></div>

Roblox got sued...thats great news...to us. Says the platform's power is growing. Gamestop intriguing and IAC being IAC. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

TMT Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/11/​​​​​​2021

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>Here it comes, the David-and-Goliath metaphor. Cliché is an understatement, but who cares – it is a most fitting allegory for the epic proxy battle between a diminutive activist investor you've never heard of and a "Big Oil" Behemoth that you know all too well... <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a>.</p><p>Guess who won?</p><p>Well, that depends on perspective. The activist hedge fund (Engine No. 1) gained three Board seats so one could certainly say that Engine won. As did the shareholders that backed Engine in its proxy (BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, CalPERS, CalSTRS). But the biggest winner of all?</p><p>Planet Earth.</p><p>Engine's improbable win – in conjunction with similar (albeit less spectacular) shareholder actions at other supermajors – appears to signify a seismic shift in how Big Oil's shareholders view climate change, and could portend real change (e.g., accelerated decarbonisation and better reporting).</p>

Here it comes, the David-and-Goliath metaphor. Cliché is an understatement, but who cares – it is a most fitting allegory for the epic proxy battle between a diminutive activist investor you've never heard of and a "Big Oil" Behemoth that you know all too well... Exxon Mobil (XOM US).Guess who won?Well, that depends on perspective. The activist hedge fund (Engine No. 1) gained three Board seats so one could certainly say that Engine won. As did the shareholders that backed Engine in its proxy (BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, CalPERS, CalSTRS). But the biggest winner of all?Planet Earth.Engine's improbable win – in conjunction with similar (albeit less spectacular) shareholder actions at other supermajors – appears to signify a seismic shift in how Big Oil's shareholders view climate change, and could portend real change (e.g., accelerated decarbonisation and better reporting).

Engine Versus Exxon: Activist Hedge Fund's Proxy Fight Win Reverberates Through "Big Oil" Boardrooms

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<p><em><strong>*Reserve Bank of Australia’s No Action On BNPL:</strong></em>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released a Retail Payments Review on May 28, 2021 discussing among other items the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) model. Specifically, the RBA reviewed whether the BNPL model should continue with its ‘no surcharge rules’ whereby merchants are precluded from passing along BNPL fees to its customers. The RBA concluded that it will not require the BNPL sector to change its ‘no surcharge rules’; and  </p><p><strong><em>*Tencent’s Midas Touch:</em></strong> Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment over the past nine months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology BNPL company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways. </p>

*Reserve Bank of Australia’s No Action On BNPL:The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released a Retail Payments Review on May 28, 2021 discussing among other items the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) model. Specifically, the RBA reviewed whether the BNPL model should continue with its ‘no surcharge rules’ whereby merchants are precluded from passing along BNPL fees to its customers. The RBA concluded that it will not require the BNPL sector to change its ‘no surcharge rules’; and  *Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment over the past nine months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology BNPL company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways. 

<p>We think Snowflake is expensive, but not necessarily as expensive at it seems (44x CY22 revenues) when looked at on a growth adjusted metric (0.6x). This quarter didn’t reveal anything notable – the business is still doubling YoY, guidance for 90% growth next quarter seems conservative, and the operating model as a whole seems conservative (e.g. mid70s gross margin target vs. 73% today)…which is why we expect some sort of update coming in two weeks at Snowflake’s analyst day. The stock has become a consensus short, which explains some of the price action today on a just “ok” guidance. The recent drawdown below $200 represented a good entry point…we are long, and would add into Analyst Day.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We think Snowflake is expensive, but not necessarily as expensive at it seems (44x CY22 revenues) when looked at on a growth adjusted metric (0.6x). This quarter didn’t reveal anything notable – the business is still doubling YoY, guidance for 90% growth next quarter seems conservative, and the operating model as a whole seems conservative (e.g. mid70s gross margin target vs. 73% today)…which is why we expect some sort of update coming in two weeks at Snowflake’s analyst day. The stock has become a consensus short, which explains some of the price action today on a just “ok” guidance. The recent drawdown below $200 represented a good entry point…we are long, and would add into Analyst Day.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Snowflake 2Q22 Earnings: Stay Tuned to Analyst Day

United States

Alphabet Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides web-based search, advertisements, maps, software applications, mobile operating systems, consumer content, enterprise solutions, commerce, and hardware products.

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Alphabet (GOOGL US)

Initial Thoughts on the Krafton IPO Valuation

Our base case valuation of Krafton is an implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won or 465,055 won per share. Given the lack of upside relative to the...

Douglas Kim

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/11/2021

Three items that stood out last week to us in TMT...the most interesting was a lawsuit by music publishers against Roblox, signaling the importance...

Aaron Gabin

Engine Versus Exxon: Activist Hedge Fund's Proxy Fight Win Reverberates Through "Big Oil" Boardrooms

May 26, 2021. Black Wednesday. A day that changed Big Oil forever. From Exxon's proxy fight loss to an activist fund you've never heard of, to...

Kyle Rudden

Tencent Holdings – Shot, Score!!

TENCENT HOLDINGS: The RBA released a Retail Payments Review discussing among other items the BNPL model. The RBA concluded that it will not require...

Thomas J. Monaco

Snowflake 2Q22 Earnings: Stay Tuned to Analyst Day

Snowflake has become a consensus short, we think the recent drawdown below $200 represented a good entry point…we are long, and would add into...

Aaron Gabin

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Initial Thoughts on the Krafton IPO Valuation

Our base case valuation of Krafton is an implied market cap of 24.1 trillion won or 465,055 won per share. Given the lack of upside relative to the...

Douglas Kim

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/11/​​​​​​2021

Three items that stood out last week to us in TMT...the most interesting was a lawsuit by music publishers against Roblox, signaling the importance...

Aaron Gabin

Engine Versus Exxon: Activist Hedge Fund's Proxy Fight Win Reverberates Through "Big Oil" Boardrooms

May 26, 2021. Black Wednesday. A day that changed Big Oil forever. From Exxon's proxy fight loss to an activist fund you've never heard of, to...

Kyle Rudden

Tencent Holdings – Shot, Score!!

TENCENT HOLDINGS: The RBA released a Retail Payments Review discussing among other items the BNPL model. The RBA concluded that it will not require...

Thomas J. Monaco

Snowflake 2Q22 Earnings: Stay Tuned to Analyst Day

Snowflake has become a consensus short, we think the recent drawdown below $200 represented a good entry point…we are long, and would add into...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 6/11/2021