Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>This is our first report on one of the largest insurance companies, the Allstate Corporation.</li><li>The company had a mediocre quarterly result and saw a 26% year-over-year increase in total revenues, totaling $13.8 billion.</li><li>This was fueled by a rise in premiums, investment income, and realized capital gains, with total premiums showing a 9% year-over-year growth to reach $12.5 billion, driven by growth across all segments, especially the auto insurance segment which grew 11% year over year.</li></ul>

This is our first report on one of the largest insurance companies, the Allstate Corporation.The company had a mediocre quarterly result and saw a 26% year-over-year increase in total revenues, totaling $13.8 billion.This was fueled by a rise in premiums, investment income, and realized capital gains, with total premiums showing a 9% year-over-year growth to reach $12.5 billion, driven by growth across all segments, especially the auto insurance segment which grew 11% year over year.

The Allstate Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? Financial Forecasts

<ul>
<li>We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.</li>
<li>We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).</li>
<li>With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target</li>
</ul>


We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target


Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

<ul>
<li>Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&amp;P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 -- both important support levels moving forward.</li>
<li>We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.</li>
<li>Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.</li>
</ul>


Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&amp;P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 -- both important support levels moving forward.
We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.
Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.


Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/root-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29692:1" rel="noopener">Root Inc (ROOT US)</a><a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201020005703/en/Root-Inc.-Announces-Launch-of-Initial-Public-Offering" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> its IPO terms and it will offer 24.16 million shares of common shares in the IPO (22 million shares offered by Root and 2.16 million shares sold by a major shareholder). The IPO price is currently expected to be between $22 and $25 per share. However, we expect this IPO to receive a very high demand, and the IPO price range is likely to be raised prior to final pricing. 
We are including Root Inc in our model portfolio.
</div>We forecast the company to generate revenue of $616.1 million in 2020 (up 112.3% YoY) and $1,070.2 million in 2021 (up 73.7% YoY). From 2019 to 2022, we have assumed the company's revenue to increase by 78.9% CAGR. The combination of the company's exploding revenue growth and improvement in the reduction of net losses as a percentage of revenue is very impressive indeed.Our base case valuation for Root is an implied market cap of $13.2 billion, or $52.1 per share, which is 108% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of $25 per share. Given the very high upside, we have a positive view of the Root IPO and we include this stock in our model portfolio.


Root Inc (ROOT US)announced its IPO terms and it will offer 24.16 million shares of common shares in the IPO (22 million shares offered by Root and 2.16 million shares sold by a major shareholder). The IPO price is currently expected to be between $22 and $25 per share. However, we expect this IPO to receive a very high demand, and the IPO price range is likely to be raised prior to final pricing. 
We are including Root Inc in our model portfolio.
We forecast the company to generate revenue of $616.1 million in 2020 (up 112.3% YoY) and $1,070.2 million in 2021 (up 73.7% YoY). From 2019 to 2022, we have assumed the company's revenue to increase by 78.9% CAGR. The combination of the company's exploding revenue growth and improvement in the reduction of net losses as a percentage of revenue is very impressive indeed.Our base case valuation for Root is an implied market cap of $13.2 billion, or $52.1 per share, which is 108% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of $25 per share. Given the very high upside, we have a positive view of the Root IPO and we include this stock in our model portfolio. 

Root Inc IPO Valuation Analysis (Insurtech SaaS)

United States

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a Bermuda-based insurance and financial services company that provides reinsurance and insurance products on a worldwide basis.

American International Group, Inc. is an international insurance organization serving commercial, institutional and individual customers. AIG provides property-casualty insurance, life insurance and retirement services.

MetLife, Inc. provides individual insurance, employee benefits and financial services with operations throughout the United States and the regions of Latin America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The Company's products include life insurance, annuities, automobile and homeowners insurance, retail banking and other financial services to individuals as well as group insurance.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. and its subsidiaries provide insurance brokerage, risk management, employee benefit, and other related services to clients in the United States and abroad. The Company's principal activity is the negotiation and placement of insurance for its clients. Gallagher also specializes in furnishing risk management services.

Aon PLC is a professional services provider. The Company is comprised of risk and insurance brokerage consulting. Aon's services include helping manage risk for clients, negotiating and placing insurance risk with other carriers, and advising clients related to health and benefits, retirement, compensation, strategic human capital, and human resource outsourcing.

The Travelers Companies, Inc. provides commercial and personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals.

Prudential Financial, Inc. provides financial services throughout the United States and several locations worldwide. The Company offers a variety of products and services, including life insurance, mutual funds, annuities, pension, and retirement related services, as well as administration and asset management.

Aflac, Inc. is a general business holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental insurance to individuals in the United States and Japan.  Aflac's products include accident/disability plans, cancer expense plans, short-term disability plans, sickness and hospital indemnity plans, hospital intensive care plans, and fixed-benefit dental plans.

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. provides a range of insurance products.  The Company's products include property and casualty insurance, group benefits and mutual funds.  Hartford Financial is based and operates in the U.S.

Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company operates as an advisory, broking, and solutions company. The Company provides a range of insurance brokerage, reinsurance, and risk management consulting services. Willis Towers Watson serves customers worldwide.

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. is a holding company established through reorganization of Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Company, Limited.  The Group writes marine, fire, casualty, automobile, life, and allied insurance policies. MS&AD Insurance Group also operates financial services and agencies.

The Dai-ichi Life Insurance Company Ltd. underwrites and sells life, health and annuity insurance to groups and individuals. The Company offers a wide variety of insurance products to suit different needs, ranging from children's school tuition to emergency funds for the elderly.

China Life Insurance Company Ltd. offers a wide range of life, accident, and health insurance products and services.

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Company, Ltd. is an integrated insurance services provider. The Company offers life and property insurance products through its subsidiaries.

Cathay Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides traditional life, health care, and accident insurances, as well as banking, security underwriting, and brokerage services.

Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A. offers life and non-life insurance and reinsurance throughout the world.  The Company offers life, health, accident, automobile, marine, aviation, transport, fire, general liability, and credit insurance and reinsurance.

Hannover Rueck SE provides reinsurance services.  The Company offers life, health, accident, damage, property, and high risk specialty reinsurance.

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG (MunichRe) provides financial services. The Company offers reinsurance, insurance, and asset management services. MunichRe has subsidiaries in most major financial centers throughout the world.

Swiss Re AG offers reinsurance, insurance and insurance linked financial market products. The Company offers automobile, liability, accident, engineering, marine, aviation, life, and health insurance. Swiss Re also manages fixed-income and equity investments for itself and other insurance companies.

The Allstate Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides property-liability insurance, as well as other types of insurance in the United States and Canada. The Company primarily sells private passenger automobile and homeowners insurance through independent and specialized brokers. Allstate also sells life insurance, annuity, and group pension products through agents.

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Allstate Corp (ALL US)

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

The Allstate Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? Financial Forecasts

This is our first report on one of the largest insurance companies, the Allstate Corporation. The company had a mediocre quarterly result and saw...

Baptista Research

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

A bear market rally (+10% from the lows) remains in play as long as the $SPX remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the $IWM remains above...

Vermilion Research

Root Inc IPO Valuation Analysis (Insurtech SaaS)

Our base case valuation for Root is an implied market cap of $13.2 billion, or $52.1 per share, which is 108% higher than the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

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