Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We believe the S&amp;P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels -- levels we believe will hold. Tech remains our favorite Sector globally. Additional attractive cyclical areas in which to add exposure at current levels include Financials in Europe, autos and auto parts stocks, and casinos and gaming in Macau... see report for a technical appraisal of all major markets and a collection of actionable stocks.

We believe the S&amp;P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels -- levels we believe will hold. Tech remains our favorite Sector globally. Additional attractive cyclical areas in which to add exposure at current levels include Financials in Europe, autos and auto parts stocks, and casinos and gaming in Macau... see report for a technical appraisal of all major markets and a collection of actionable stocks.

Global Equity Strategy: Major Indexes at Logical Support

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Frustration on the slow progress of the LTAP bid came to a head at the recent AGM, where shareholders registered what appeared to be protest votes aimed at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18531" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18531:1">Graincorp Ltd A (GNC AU)</a>’s director elections and remuneration. The Board has currently three options to unlock shareholder value – achieve a binding LTAP bid, commence the portfolio review driven sale process or adopt the Tanarra Capital proposal.<div class="content-highlight">The option with the highest potential to unlock shareholder value remains the LTAP bid. However, the Board’s dithering and pursual of unattractive alternative options have given LTAP more justification to lower than bump its bid, in our view.</div>

Frustration on the slow progress of the LTAP bid came to a head at the recent AGM, where shareholders registered what appeared to be protest votes aimed at Graincorp Ltd A (GNC AU)’s director elections and remuneration. The Board has currently three options to unlock shareholder value – achieve a binding LTAP bid, commence the portfolio review driven sale process or adopt the Tanarra Capital proposal.The option with the highest potential to unlock shareholder value remains the LTAP bid. However, the Board’s dithering and pursual of unattractive alternative options have given LTAP more justification to lower than bump its bid, in our view.

GrainCorp (GNC AU): Pressure Mounts, Diminishing the Prospects of a Bump to the LTAP Bid

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

TMB seems to have stole the rug from under Thailand’s banking titanSCB recently when it inked a 15-year selling agent deal with FWD Insurance worth Bt24bn, but SCB is also said to be hatching plans of its own (and potentially cooler one) with Allianz. Bankassurance, a model in which insurance companies use bank staff to sell their policies rather than insurance agent, is a highly profitable one that has inspired some of the world’s biggest deals in financial services such as the Citi-Travelers…

TMB seems to have stole the rug from under Thailand’s banking titanSCB recently when it inked a 15-year selling agent deal with FWD Insurance worth Bt24bn, but SCB is also said to be hatching plans of its own (and potentially cooler one) with Allianz. Bankassurance, a model in which insurance companies use bank staff to sell their policies rather than insurance agent, is a highly profitable one that has inspired some of the world’s biggest deals in financial services such as the Citi-Travelers…

TMB Vs SCB: Bancassurance Ain't Big Enough for the Two of Us!

Germany

Allianz SE, through subsidiaries, offers insurance and financial services. The Company offers property and casualty, life and health, credit, motor vehicle, and travel insurance, as well as and fund management services.

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Allianz (ALV GR)

Global Equity Strategy: Major Indexes at Logical Support

We believe the S&P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels --...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements...

Vermilion Research

GrainCorp (GNC AU): Pressure Mounts, Diminishing the Prospects of a Bump to the LTAP Bid

Frustration on the slow progress of the LTAP bid came to a head at the recent AGM, where shareholders registered what appeared to be protest votes...

Arun George

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

TMB Vs SCB: Bancassurance Ain't Big Enough for the Two of Us!

TMB seems to have stole the rug from under Thailand’s banking titanSCB recently when it inked a 15-year selling agent deal with FWD Insurance worth...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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