European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Allfunds Group, a global WealthTech firm born in Spain, attracts market interest, but no firm offers yet. Its top two shareholders (48.1%) are open to selling at the right price.</li>
<li>Since listing, Allfunds' total return has been -59%, driven by interest rate hikes, major distributors shifting to low-risk assets, stock overhang from top shareholders, and low share liquidity.</li>
<li>ChatGPTAllfunds' forward P/E of 12.9x (vs. peers at 18.6x) and 9.5% FCF yield undervalue its strong business model, momentum, market share gains, robust cash conversion, and solid balance sheet.</li>
</ul>


Allfunds Group, a global WealthTech firm born in Spain, attracts market interest, but no firm offers yet. Its top two shareholders (48.1%) are open to selling at the right price.
Since listing, Allfunds' total return has been -59%, driven by interest rate hikes, major distributors shifting to low-risk assets, stock overhang from top shareholders, and low share liquidity.
ChatGPTAllfunds' forward P/E of 12.9x (vs. peers at 18.6x) and 9.5% FCF yield undervalue its strong business model, momentum, market share gains, robust cash conversion, and solid balance sheet.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>CTBC's (likely) goal is to boost <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong (2888 TT)</a>'s shares, so as to make the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taishin-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:715:1" rel="noopener">Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT)</a> merger unpalatable for Shin Kong shareholders. That smells of opportunity.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> is trading cheap to NAV and its implied stub. It may well get cheaper.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s resulting supply/demand profile is mixed, but on balance, expect to see positive demand into the H1 earnings announcement. Watch for another buyback possibly announced then.</li>
</ul>


CTBC's (likely) goal is to boost Shin Kong (2888 TT)'s shares, so as to make the Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger unpalatable for Shin Kong shareholders. That smells of opportunity.

Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) is trading cheap to NAV and its implied stub. It may well get cheaper.

Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s resulting supply/demand profile is mixed, but on balance, expect to see positive demand into the H1 earnings announcement. Watch for another buyback possibly announced then.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin Financial, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Motors, Huafa Props

<ul>
<li>As per the failed offer terms, consideration would amount to €5,507 million, of which €3,581 million in cash, which would stretch the balance sheet of Euronext. </li>
<li>Euronext should issue equity to fund part of the cash component, but the EPS accretion in a base case scenario would be just 4.5% (see sensitivity analysis premia/ENX share price).</li>
<li>If any exchange operators were truly interested in acquiring Allfunds, I find it surprising that they would not had acquired shares during some share placements in October 2022.</li>
</ul>


As per the failed offer terms, consideration would amount to €5,507 million, of which €3,581 million in cash, which would stretch the balance sheet of Euronext. 
Euronext should issue equity to fund part of the cash component, but the EPS accretion in a base case scenario would be just 4.5% (see sensitivity analysis premia/ENX share price).
If any exchange operators were truly interested in acquiring Allfunds, I find it surprising that they would not had acquired shares during some share placements in October 2022.


Thoughts About the Failed Offer for Allfunds

United Kingdom

Allfunds Group plc operates as a wealthtech company. The Company offers data and analytics, portfolio and reporting tools, research, and regulatory services. Allfunds serves customers worldwide.

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Allfunds Group (ALLFG NA)

Misunderstood Takeover Target

Allfunds Group, a global WealthTech firm born in Spain, attracts market interest, but no firm offers yet. Its top two shareholders (48.1%) are open...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong/Taishin Financial, Jardine Matheson, Toyota Motors, Huafa Props

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Thoughts About the Failed Offer for Allfunds

The prospective offer for Euronext failed because it was already pitched near the higher end of what Euronext could afford, let alone getting...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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