Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>  shares are down 5% on news that the Cyberspace Admin of China has ordered app stores to pull <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a> 's mobile app. The intra-day ~¥365/share decline seems overdone as Didi’s total value to SBG shareholders is c. ¥470 yen but this is Vision Fund's largest single investment and any hopes that it would build on the upside from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doordash-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28881:1" rel="noopener">DoorDash Inc (DASH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ke-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29213:1" rel="noopener">KE Holdings Inc (BEKE US)</a> have been sidelined. Plus, the company's target to list 20+ companies this year seems less impressive if this is the kind of performance that will result.

Softbank Group (9984 JP)  shares are down 5% on news that the Cyberspace Admin of China has ordered app stores to pull DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US) 's mobile app. The intra-day ~¥365/share decline seems overdone as Didi’s total value to SBG shareholders is c. ¥470 yen but this is Vision Fund's largest single investment and any hopes that it would build on the upside from Coupang (CPNG US) , DoorDash Inc (DASH US) and KE Holdings Inc (BEKE US) have been sidelined. Plus, the company's target to list 20+ companies this year seems less impressive if this is the kind of performance that will result. 

Softbank Group and Didi Chuxing - Regulatory Pressure on the Rise

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US)</a> - China's largest ride-hailing app/service which is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> launched, then upsized, a mega-IPO to raise US$4.4bn. It was MUCH discussed on Smartkarma pre-IPO. Shares rose 1% on the IPO, rose 16% on Day 2, then fell 5% on Day 3 as the Cyberspace Administration of China <a href="http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-07/02/c_1626811521011934.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> (<a href="http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-07/02/c_1626811521011934.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-07/02/c_1626811521011934.htm</a>) a cyber security review of the Didi Travel app. Didi said they would cooperate with regulators. But there was a background to this.On 11 June, the Cyberspace Administration of China <a href="http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-06/11/c_1624994586637626.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> (<a href="http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-06/11/c_1624994586637626.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-06/11/c_1624994586637626.htm</a>) that 129 apps were being investigated for illegal collection and use of personal information. The investigation was noted in the IPO documents and Didi said then that they were working with regulators. Less well noted in public commentary because the list was long and the "work requirement" was all the way at the bottom of the page was that "the relevant App operator[s] shall complete the rectification within 15 working days from the date of this announcement, and send the rectification report with an official seal to" such-and-such an email address, and "If the rectification is not completed within the time limit, our office will deal with it in accordance with the law."Friday 2 July was the 15th working day. Today, the Cyberspace Administration of China took it one step further, <a href="http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-07/04/c_1627016782176163.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcing</a> (<a href="http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-07/04/c_1627016782176163.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-07/04/c_1627016782176163.htm</a>) it was instructing all platforms to remove the app from distribution. The stock was down 11% on Friday at one point before closing -5%. Monday is a holiday on the NYSE but a lot of attention will be paid to this news. Didi now has pride of place at the top of the league table for Who Has The Most Mentions On The Front Page of Regulator Websites.That's not necessarily a good thing for the stock. A brief review follows.

DiDi Chuxing (DIDI US) - China's largest ride-hailing app/service which is backed by Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Tencent (700 HK) launched, then upsized, a mega-IPO to raise US$4.4bn. It was MUCH discussed on Smartkarma pre-IPO. Shares rose 1% on the IPO, rose 16% on Day 2, then fell 5% on Day 3 as the Cyberspace Administration of China announced (http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-07/02/c_1626811521011934.htm) a cyber security review of the Didi Travel app. Didi said they would cooperate with regulators. But there was a background to this.On 11 June, the Cyberspace Administration of China announced (http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-06/11/c_1624994586637626.htm) that 129 apps were being investigated for illegal collection and use of personal information. The investigation was noted in the IPO documents and Didi said then that they were working with regulators. Less well noted in public commentary because the list was long and the "work requirement" was all the way at the bottom of the page was that "the relevant App operator[s] shall complete the rectification within 15 working days from the date of this announcement, and send the rectification report with an official seal to" such-and-such an email address, and "If the rectification is not completed within the time limit, our office will deal with it in accordance with the law."Friday 2 July was the 15th working day. Today, the Cyberspace Administration of China took it one step further, announcing (http://www.cac.gov.cn/2021-07/04/c_1627016782176163.htm) it was instructing all platforms to remove the app from distribution. The stock was down 11% on Friday at one point before closing -5%. Monday is a holiday on the NYSE but a lot of attention will be paid to this news. Didi now has pride of place at the top of the league table for Who Has The Most Mentions On The Front Page of Regulator Websites.That's not necessarily a good thing for the stock. A brief review follows.

Didi Chuxing - Slammed by Regulators, Again. A Review of the Regulatory Timeline

Softbank will be able to report a positive Q1 contribution from public companies in the Vision Fund portfolio thanks to five new listings and some amazing quarter-end moves for Dingdong Maicai, Full Truck Alliance and Coupang. All in, we estimate public VF companies ended the quarter up $1.1bn after mid-quarter losses that had been as high as $12bn. New listings were a big help surfacing almost $6bn in value, enough to offset c. $5bn in valuation losses for the existing portfolio. It is worth noting that the underlying value of Softbank shares is at all-time highs as VF liquidity offsets recent Alibaba weakness. That is less apparent in the share price as the discount has expanded to 45% from &lt;30% when the company announced its full-year results in May.

Softbank will be able to report a positive Q1 contribution from public companies in the Vision Fund portfolio thanks to five new listings and some amazing quarter-end moves for Dingdong Maicai, Full Truck Alliance and Coupang. All in, we estimate public VF companies ended the quarter up $1.1bn after mid-quarter losses that had been as high as $12bn. New listings were a big help surfacing almost $6bn in value, enough to offset c. $5bn in valuation losses for the existing portfolio. It is worth noting that the underlying value of Softbank shares is at all-time highs as VF liquidity offsets recent Alibaba weakness. That is less apparent in the share price as the discount has expanded to 45% from &lt;30% when the company announced its full-year results in May.

Softbank Group - Vision Fund’s Public Companies on Wild Ride to End Quarter in the Black

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

For the first time in months, our EBIT and EPS forecasts are not dramatically lower than consensus and while we see scope for moderate EBIT downgrades, we believe any weakness in the shares would present a robust buying opportunity.

For the first time in months, our EBIT and EPS forecasts are not dramatically lower than consensus and while we see scope for moderate EBIT downgrades, we believe any weakness in the shares would present a robust buying opportunity.

Alibaba – Have Consensus Forecasts Finally Bottomed?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dingdong-maicai" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33461:1" rel="noopener">Dingdong Maicai (DDL US)</a>, an on-demand fresh produce and grocery delivery platform in China with RMB 11.3bn in annual revenue and 6.9m in monthly active customers, raised about $96.0m in its US IPO on Tuesday after slashing the size of the IPO <a target="_blank">to almost a fourth of its earlier target.</a> The shares were priced at $23.50 per ADS, at the lower end of the proposed IPO price range. If exercised, the overallotment option could increase the gross proceeds to the company by another $14.0m.

Dingdong Maicai (DDL US), an on-demand fresh produce and grocery delivery platform in China with RMB 11.3bn in annual revenue and 6.9m in monthly active customers, raised about $96.0m in its US IPO on Tuesday after slashing the size of the IPO to almost a fourth of its earlier target. The shares were priced at $23.50 per ADS, at the lower end of the proposed IPO price range. If exercised, the overallotment option could increase the gross proceeds to the company by another $14.0m.

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Softbank Group and Didi Chuxing - Regulatory Pressure on the Rise

Softbank is down 5% and the holdco discount is over 45% on Didi weakness. We think our forecasts cover regulatory pressure but the VF IPO flywheel...

Kirk Boodry

Didi Chuxing - Slammed by Regulators, Again. A Review of the Regulatory Timeline

Didi is slammed by regulators. Again. March, then April, then June by the CAC, then June by SAMR, then Friday by CAC, now Sunday. A message is...

Travis Lundy

Softbank Group - Vision Fund’s Public Companies on Wild Ride to End Quarter in the Black

Vision Fund's portfolio moved into the black for Q1 thanks to IPOs and some amazing qtr-end moves by a few VF stocks. Report includes updated...

Kirk Boodry

Alibaba – Have Consensus Forecasts Finally Bottomed?

For the first time in months, our EBIT and EPS forecasts are not dramatically lower than consensus and while we see scope for some EBIT downgrades,...

Rickin Thakrar

Dingdong Maicai IPO Trading Update

It is somewhat strange that Dingdong Maicai’s share price closed marginally above IPO price, especially considering that the company downsized the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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