Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Global smartphone shipments expected to increase beyond 2025, with OLED technology gaining popularity in tablets and notebooks while Mini LED becomes less preferred.</li><li>Uncertainty over whether Trump will end TSMC's subsidies for Arizona factory, impacting material suppliers benefiting from TSMC's growth in 3Q24.</li><li>PSMC chairman shifts from cautious approach towards India to optimism with new partnership with Tata, while Horizon Robotics' Hong Kong IPO supported by Alibaba, Baidu, and TSMC for manufacturing.</li></ul>

Global smartphone shipments expected to increase beyond 2025, with OLED technology gaining popularity in tablets and notebooks while Mini LED becomes less preferred.Uncertainty over whether Trump will end TSMC's subsidies for Arizona factory, impacting material suppliers benefiting from TSMC's growth in 3Q24.PSMC chairman shifts from cautious approach towards India to optimism with new partnership with Tata, while Horizon Robotics' Hong Kong IPO supported by Alibaba, Baidu, and TSMC for manufacturing.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Oct-2024): 2025+ global smartphone forecast.

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Alibaba is selling Sun Art, a listed supermarket subsidiary, as Sun Art’s revenue is shrinking.</li>
<li>Alibaba gained 6 million new retailers on its Taobao Tmall platform year to date.</li>
<li>In September Tesla’s sales volume increased by 66% YoY and all major Chinese NEV grew strongly.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba is selling Sun Art, a listed supermarket subsidiary, as Sun Art’s revenue is shrinking.
Alibaba gained 6 million new retailers on its Taobao Tmall platform year to date.
In September Tesla’s sales volume increased by 66% YoY and all major Chinese NEV grew strongly.


China Consumption Weekly (21 Oct 2024): Sun Art, Alibaba, Tesla, JD.com

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> ended on 30 September.</li>
<li>We do not forecast any constituent changes for the index. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round-trip trade of HK$6.1bn (US$785m).</li>
<li>If any stocks have outsized moves on expectations of being added to or deleted from the index, there could be opportunities to enter trades.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) ended on 30 September.
We do not forecast any constituent changes for the index. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round-trip trade of HK$6.1bn (US$785m).
If any stocks have outsized moves on expectations of being added to or deleted from the index, there could be opportunities to enter trades.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: $800m Round-Trip Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back in August 2017, Xingxuan Technology, a privately held Cayman Islands company operating in the online food delivery space in China, was transferred by way of a statutory merger. </li>
<li>The buyer was <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a></strong>-backed Rajax, the key seller, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a></strong>. The dissenter, having paid US$125mn for its shares, was offered cash/scrip worth an estimated US$42mn.</li>
<li>The dissenter considered terms low-balled. The judge agreed. The uplift? 659%.</li>
</ul>


Back in August 2017, Xingxuan Technology, a privately held Cayman Islands company operating in the online food delivery space in China, was transferred by way of a statutory merger. 
The buyer was Alibaba Group (9988 HK)-backed Rajax, the key seller, Baidu (9888 HK). The dissenter, having paid US$125mn for its shares, was offered cash/scrip worth an estimated US$42mn.
The dissenter considered terms low-balled. The judge agreed. The uplift? 659%.


<ul>
<li>In its last update, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group</a> announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.</li>
<li>The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?</li>
<li>Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a> could take the stock higher from here. </li>
</ul>


In its last update, Alibaba Group announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.
The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?
Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in Alibaba could take the stock higher from here. 


Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Oct-2024): 2025+ global smartphone forecast.

Global smartphone market forecasts beyond 2025, OLED gaining popularity in tablets and notebooks while Mini LED fades; uncertainties around Trump's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

China Consumption Weekly (21 Oct 2024): Sun Art, Alibaba, Tesla, JD.com

Alibaba is selling Sun Art, a listed supermarket subsidiary. Alibaba gained 6 million new retailers on its Taobao Tmall platform year to date. In...

Ming Lu

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: $800m Round-Trip Trade

We do not forecast any constituent changes for the HSTECH index in December. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round...

Brian Freitas

When Dissenting REALLY Pays Off

Back in 2017, Alibaba acquired Baidu-backed Xingxuan Technology. A dissenter took the company to task on the merger price. Their effort paid off,...

David Blennerhassett

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

Alibaba will be in included in Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading today. Volumes should be higher than usual as mainland investors...

Brian Freitas

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