Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The sector sees dramatic improvement in profitability and cashflow thanks to cutback on marketing expenses and headcount reduction.</li>
<li>Topline growth is recovering but still clouded by sluggish macro conditions. It is understandable that investors treat these China proxies – one way or another – with caution.</li>
<li>The sector’s valuation will remain pressured before the property market stabilizes and key macro indicators show concrete signs of improvement, in our view.</li>
</ul>


The sector sees dramatic improvement in profitability and cashflow thanks to cutback on marketing expenses and headcount reduction.
Topline growth is recovering but still clouded by sluggish macro conditions. It is understandable that investors treat these China proxies – one way or another – with caution.
The sector’s valuation will remain pressured before the property market stabilizes and key macro indicators show concrete signs of improvement, in our view.


China Online Marketplaces: Recap of 2Q Results

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide an updated valuation analysis of SK Square (402340 KS) amid a potential sale of 11st to Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US).</li>
<li>Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 9.2 trillion won or NAV per share of 65,069 won, representing a 55% upside from current levels.</li>
<li>If SK Square is able to sell its stake in 11st to Alibaba, the capital inflow from the sale could be used to raise dividends and complete more share buybacks. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide an updated valuation analysis of SK Square (402340 KS) amid a potential sale of 11st to Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US).
Our NAV analysis of SK Square suggests NAV of 9.2 trillion won or NAV per share of 65,069 won, representing a 55% upside from current levels.
If SK Square is able to sell its stake in 11st to Alibaba, the capital inflow from the sale could be used to raise dividends and complete more share buybacks. 


SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dpc-dash-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36556:1" rel="noopener">DPC Dash (1405 HK)</a> raised around US$75m in its Hong Kong IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 672 stores across 20 cities, as of Jun 2023.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



DPC Dash (1405 HK) raised around US$75m in its Hong Kong IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.
The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 672 stores across 20 cities, as of Jun 2023.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


DPC Dash IPO - US$400m Lockup Expiry Should Provide a Liquidity Boost

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Based on NBS data, 8M23 online retail sales GMV/ online physical goods GMV reached RMB9.5/8.0tn, up 12.1/9.5% YoY.</li><li>The YoY growth of online physical goods GMV in Aug 2023 came in at 6.1% (July 2023: 5.0%), which was largely in line with our estimate at 5.5%, demonstrated a marginal sequential improvement trend but indicated that consumption recovery still takes time.</li><li>Although overall top-line growth of e-commerce platforms is likely to face shortterm fluctuation due to macro uncertainties, e-commerce platforms are driving revenue growth and scale expansion in an efficient way and targeting for operating efficiency improvement, which likely leads to benign-than-expected industry competition, and better-than-expected earnings growth in 3Q23. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Based on NBS data, 8M23 online retail sales GMV/ online physical goods GMV reached RMB9.5/8.0tn, up 12.1/9.5% YoY.The YoY growth of online physical goods GMV in Aug 2023 came in at 6.1% (July 2023: 5.0%), which was largely in line with our estimate at 5.5%, demonstrated a marginal sequential improvement trend but indicated that consumption recovery still takes time.Although overall top-line growth of e-commerce platforms is likely to face shortterm fluctuation due to macro uncertainties, e-commerce platforms are driving revenue growth and scale expansion in an efficient way and targeting for operating efficiency improvement, which likely leads to benign-than-expected industry competition, and better-than-expected earnings growth in 3Q23. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet – August online retail sales recap

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4paradigm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34465:1" rel="noopener">4Paradigm (1764934D HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$600m.</li>
<li>4P is a platform-centric AI enterprise solutions provider. It was the largest player by revenue in the platform-centric decision-making AI market in China in 2022, as per CIC.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we covered the company’s performance and refiling updates. In this note, we will cover the firm’s PHIP updates, peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



4Paradigm (1764934D HK) is looking to raise up to US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$600m.
4P is a platform-centric AI enterprise solutions provider. It was the largest player by revenue in the platform-centric decision-making AI market in China in 2022, as per CIC.
In our previous notes, we covered the company’s performance and refiling updates. In this note, we will cover the firm’s PHIP updates, peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.


4Paradigm IPO - PHIP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

China Online Marketplaces: Recap of 2Q Results

The sector shows improved profitability and cashflow due to reduced marketing expenses and headcount. Yet cautious sentiment persists amidst...

Eric Chen

SK Square: Updated NAV Analysis Amid Potential Sale of 11st to Alibaba

If SK Square is able to sell its stake in 11st to Alibaba, the capital inflow from the sale could be used to raise dividends and complete more...

Douglas Kim

DPC Dash IPO - US$400m Lockup Expiry Should Provide a Liquidity Boost

DPC Dash (1405 HK) raised around US$75m in its Hong Kong IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon, resulting in US$400m worth...

Sumeet Singh

China Internet – August online retail sales recap

The YoY growth of online physical goods GMV in Aug 2023 came in at 6.1% (July 2023: 5.0%), which was largely in line with our estimate at 5.5%

CMB International

4Paradigm IPO - PHIP Updates, Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

4Paradigm (1764934D HK) is looking to raise up to US$144m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$600m.

Ethan Aw

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