IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cainiao-smart-logistics-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115312" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. </li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.
In Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. 


Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36806:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vng-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26716:1" rel="noopener">VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US)</a> IPOs</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio Holdings (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-international-securities-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13153:1" rel="noopener">Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - EcoPro Materials (ECO123 KS), Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US) IPOs
Event-Driven developments - Eoflow (294090 KS), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Symbio Holdings (SYM AU), Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US). 


Weekly Deals Digest (29 Oct) - Eoflow, Haitong Intl, Hollysys, Azure, Symbio, EcoPro, Cainiao

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Kokusai Electric  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>In the IPO space, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> provided some relief in the ECM space, even as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> didn't do much.</li>
<li>Given the earnings seasons, there weren't any placement during the week. We did look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a>'s upcoming placement lockup expiry. </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
In the IPO space, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) provided some relief in the ECM space, even as J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) didn't do much.
Given the earnings seasons, there weren't any placement during the week. We did look at Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)'s upcoming placement lockup expiry. 


ECM Weekly (29th Oct 2023) - Kokusai, J&T, Midea, Wuxi XDC, Cirrus, Cello World, Honasa, SIA

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The increasing dominance of retailers (off/online) in the US consumer sector measured by market cap over last three decades tellingly illustrates the long term potential of Alibaba in China.</li>
<li>While we believe consensus underestimates bottom line for 2QFY24, investors will likely focus on the outlook for 2024, with growth of Taobao/Tmall group remaining key share price driver.</li>
<li>Investors pulling out of Alibaba due to geopolitical risks remind me of how ESG drove investments away from oil &amp; gas years ago and eventually led to the latter’s outperformance.  </li>
</ul>


The increasing dominance of retailers (off/online) in the US consumer sector measured by market cap over last three decades tellingly illustrates the long term potential of Alibaba in China.
While we believe consensus underestimates bottom line for 2QFY24, investors will likely focus on the outlook for 2024, with growth of Taobao/Tmall group remaining key share price driver.
Investors pulling out of Alibaba due to geopolitical risks remind me of how ESG drove investments away from oil &amp; gas years ago and eventually led to the latter’s outperformance.  


Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cirrus-aircraft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39858:1" rel="noopener">Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US)</a> is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. </li>
<li>Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.</li>
<li>CA has managed to grow its profitability steadily over the track record period. However, the firm is subjected to heightened regulatory risks as US and China tensions rise.</li>
</ul>



Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. 
Cirrus Aircraft designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium aircrafts. Its two aircraft product lines, the SR2X Series and the Vision Jet, are currently certified and validated in over 60 countries.
CA has managed to grow its profitability steadily over the track record period. However, the firm is subjected to heightened regulatory risks as US and China tensions rise.


Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO - Has Grown Steadily but Faces Prominent Regulatory Risks

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn.

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (29 Oct) - Eoflow, Haitong Intl, Hollysys, Azure, Symbio, EcoPro, Cainiao

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Eoflow, Haitong Intl, Azure Minerals, Pact Group, Symbio, Hollysys) and ECM (EcoPro...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (29th Oct 2023) - Kokusai, J&T, Midea, Wuxi XDC, Cirrus, Cello World, Honasa, SIA

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play

The dominance of retailers in the US consumer sector shows Alibaba's long term potential. Geopolitical risks driving investors away is similar to...

Eric Chen

Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO - Has Grown Steadily but Faces Prominent Regulatory Risks

Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. CA has grown its profitability steadily over the track...

Ethan Aw

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Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn.

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (29 Oct) - Eoflow, Haitong Intl, Hollysys, Azure, Symbio, EcoPro, Cainiao

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Eoflow, Haitong Intl, Azure Minerals, Pact Group, Symbio, Hollysys) and ECM (EcoPro...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (29th Oct 2023) - Kokusai, J&T, Midea, Wuxi XDC, Cirrus, Cello World, Honasa, SIA

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba (BABA US): Still One of if Not the Best China Consumer Play

​The dominance of retailers in the US consumer sector shows Alibaba's long term potential. Geopolitical risks driving investors away is similar to...

Eric Chen

Cirrus Aircraft Pre-IPO - Has Grown Steadily but Faces Prominent Regulatory Risks

Cirrus Aircraft (0153126D US) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. CA has grown its profitability steadily over the track...

Ethan Aw

The dominance of retailers in the US consumer sector shows Alibaba's long term potential. Geopolitical risks driving investors away is similar to...