Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Saudi Arabia /Cover Story: China looks to Saudi Arabia amid shifting sands in U.S. economic ties</li>
<li>China-U.S. /: In talks with Yellen, China demands removal of U.S. economic sanctions</li>
<li>Funds /: New rules for China’s $3 trillion private fund industry have more teeth, experts say</li>
</ul>


Saudi Arabia /Cover Story: China looks to Saudi Arabia amid shifting sands in U.S. economic ties
China-U.S. /: In talks with Yellen, China demands removal of U.S. economic sanctions
Funds /: New rules for China’s $3 trillion private fund industry have more teeth, experts say


CX Daily: China Looks to Saudi Arabia Amid Shifting Sands in U.S. Economic Ties

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect BABA to report C2Q23 (F1Q24) top-line and non-IFRS net income 2% and 21.5% vs. consensus. For C2Q23, we raised (1) Taobao/Tmall GMV/CMR estimates due to return of merchants, </li>
<li>(2) International Commerce and Cainiao revenue estimates, and (3) EBITA margin estimates for all groups except cloud. We maintain our BUY rating and raise TP to US$ 116 TP, </li>
<li>Due to 1) merchants return to Taobao/Tmall;  2) independent listing of groups; and 3) improved incentive structure after the organizational change.</li>
</ul>


We expect BABA to report C2Q23 (F1Q24) top-line and non-IFRS net income 2% and 21.5% vs. consensus. For C2Q23, we raised (1) Taobao/Tmall GMV/CMR estimates due to return of merchants, 
(2) International Commerce and Cainiao revenue estimates, and (3) EBITA margin estimates for all groups except cloud. We maintain our BUY rating and raise TP to US$ 116 TP, 
Due to 1) merchants return to Taobao/Tmall;  2) independent listing of groups; and 3) improved incentive structure after the organizational change.


[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$116) Target Price Change]: CMR Improves on Expanded Merchant Base

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Alibaba’s core China marketplace GMV is on a stable recovery track which is likely to be better than consensus in 1QFY24 (March year-end), aided by discretionary consumption recovery and a low base.</li><li>Also, Alibaba’s strategic move to enhance merchant ROI and customer experience should gradually bear fruit.</li><li>Recovery in YoY revenue growth for cloud business is likely in a mild pace, since demand recovery takes time. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Alibaba’s core China marketplace GMV is on a stable recovery track which is likely to be better than consensus in 1QFY24 (March year-end), aided by discretionary consumption recovery and a low base.Also, Alibaba’s strategic move to enhance merchant ROI and customer experience should gradually bear fruit.Recovery in YoY revenue growth for cloud business is likely in a mild pace, since demand recovery takes time. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) – Fundamentals on Constant Recovery Track

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Meituan's food delivery has taken 20% of the Hong Kong market share in its first month’s operations.</li>
<li>The authorities suggests that they will not further restrict financial apps such as AliPay of Ant Group.</li>
<li>Tencent's WeChat Pay charged a money transfer commission, but it exempted university campus the next day.</li>
</ul>


Meituan's food delivery has taken 20% of the Hong Kong market share in its first month’s operations.
The authorities suggests that they will not further restrict financial apps such as AliPay of Ant Group.
Tencent's WeChat Pay charged a money transfer commission, but it exempted university campus the next day.


China Internet Weekly (10Jul2023): Meituan, Alibaba, Ant Group, Tencent

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BABA: Ant Group fine to be announced, but listing unlikely until 2024 (+)</li>
<li>LKNCY: COTTI Coffee downgrade its promotion campaign, and Coffee price war is gradually easing (+)</li>
<li>BEKE: Beike is exploiting new opportunity in home decoration business, and Beike Group Decoration delivered its first batch of projects in Tianjin</li>
</ul>


BABA: Ant Group fine to be announced, but listing unlikely until 2024 (+)
LKNCY: COTTI Coffee downgrade its promotion campaign, and Coffee price war is gradually easing (+)
BEKE: Beike is exploiting new opportunity in home decoration business, and Beike Group Decoration delivered its first batch of projects in Tianjin


China TMT Update Jul.10-Baba/LKNCY/BEKE-Ant Group Fine/COTTI Downgrade Promotion/Home Decoration Biz

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

CX Daily: China Looks to Saudi Arabia Amid Shifting Sands in U.S. Economic Ties

Saudi Arabia /Cover Story: China looks to Saudi Arabia amid shifting sands in U.S. economic ties China-U.S. /: In talks with Yellen, China demands...

Caixin Global

[Alibaba (BABA US, BUY, TP US$116) Target Price Change]: CMR Improves on Expanded Merchant Base

We expect BABA to report C2Q23 (F1Q24) top-line and non-IFRS net income 2% and 21.5% vs. consensus, respectively. We raise TP to US$ 116 TP, due to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA US) – Fundamentals on Constant Recovery Track

Alibaba’s core China marketplace GMV is on a stable recovery track which is likely to be better than consensus in 1QFY24 (March year-end)

CMB International

China Internet Weekly (10Jul2023): Meituan, Alibaba, Ant Group, Tencent

Meituan’s food delivery has taken 20% of the Hong Kong market share. The authorities suggests that they will not further restrict financial apps.

Ming Lu

China TMT Update Jul.10-Baba/LKNCY/BEKE-Ant Group Fine/COTTI Downgrade Promotion/Home Decoration Biz

BABA: Ant Group fine to be announced (+);LKNCY: COTTI Coffee downgrade its promotion campaign (+);BEKE: Beike is exploiting new opportunity in home...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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