ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> published a very respectable set of results this week, with positive signs of recovery on TV advertising and strong growth in its digital efforts through Vidio.com.
A major highlight was a marked improvement in margins, as the company saw significantly reduced programming costs over the period due to an increased reliance on re-runs. 
FMCG customers have come back in 3Q2020 and will also underpin growth in 4Q2020 but the resumption of profitable sponsored programming, often interactive, from e-commerce players will help to further lift growth in advertising.
Vidio.com is firing on all cylinders, with 950,000 paying subscribers and 60m monthly active users (MAUs), with the draw of SCMA's rich content offering drawing in customers. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> remains a high-quality way to play the recovery in the advertising market, with a significant recovery already underway. This is underpinned by both FMCG customers as well as e-commerce companies, which have big marketing budgets. Vidio.com goes from strength to strength and looks increasingly able to stand alone without bringing in a strategic investor. The company still looks attractive on an FY21E PER of 17.8x versus its 5-year average of 19.1x, especially given its increasing digital exposure through Vidio.com.

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) published a very respectable set of results this week, with positive signs of recovery on TV advertising and strong growth in its digital efforts through Vidio.com.
A major highlight was a marked improvement in margins, as the company saw significantly reduced programming costs over the period due to an increased reliance on re-runs. 
FMCG customers have come back in 3Q2020 and will also underpin growth in 4Q2020 but the resumption of profitable sponsored programming, often interactive, from e-commerce players will help to further lift growth in advertising.
Vidio.com is firing on all cylinders, with 950,000 paying subscribers and 60m monthly active users (MAUs), with the draw of SCMA's rich content offering drawing in customers. 
PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) remains a high-quality way to play the recovery in the advertising market, with a significant recovery already underway. This is underpinned by both FMCG customers as well as e-commerce companies, which have big marketing budgets. Vidio.com goes from strength to strength and looks increasingly able to stand alone without bringing in a strategic investor. The company still looks attractive on an FY21E PER of 17.8x versus its 5-year average of 19.1x, especially given its increasing digital exposure through Vidio.com.

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

With one week left to go for Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) to announce the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> constituents as part of the December 2020 index review, we take a look at the performance of the expected inclusions and exclusions and try to formulate some trades.HSIL will make the index review announcement after the close of trading on 13 November, with all changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 4 December. There are 15 trading days between the announcement of the index review and the implementation date.The suspension of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> means that we are back our original expectation of 9 inclusions and 9 exclusions at the upcoming review.<div>
We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-overseas-land-invest" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:419:1" rel="noopener">China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a> being included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, and of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-taiping-insurance-hldgs-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:489:1" rel="noopener">China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-citic-bank-corp-ltd-ea6c25fd-4b20-45cb-a4a6-df7a60136f03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:653:1" rel="noopener">China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a> being deleted from the index.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> are very close to the buffer zone and could be included in the index, which would see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/want-want-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:355:1" rel="noopener">Want Want (151 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> being deleted.
In this Insight, we take a look at the updated short interest, the recent performance on the stocks and stocks that could see positions being built up in the week to announcement.
</div>

With one week left to go for Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) to announce the changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) constituents as part of the December 2020 index review, we take a look at the performance of the expected inclusions and exclusions and try to formulate some trades.HSIL will make the index review announcement after the close of trading on 13 November, with all changes becoming effective after the close of trading on 4 December. There are 15 trading days between the announcement of the index review and the implementation date.The suspension of the Ant Group (6688 HK) means that we are back our original expectation of 9 inclusions and 9 exclusions at the upcoming review.
We see a high probability of China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK), JD.com (HK) (9618 HK), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), Haidilao (6862 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK) and Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) being included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), and of China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK), China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK), China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK), China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK), Fosun International (656 HK), China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK) and China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) being deleted from the index.
NetEase (9999 HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) are very close to the buffer zone and could be included in the index, which would see Want Want (151 HK) and PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) being deleted.
In this Insight, we take a look at the updated short interest, the recent performance on the stocks and stocks that could see positions being built up in the week to announcement.


HSCEI Dec20 Index Rebalance Preview: One Week to Announcement

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As we expected, the expansion of Freshippo cut margin.</li>
<li>We find the exemption of third-party retailer commission also squeezed margin.</li>
<li>Revenue still grew fast.</li>
<li>We believe the stock price has a downside of 23%.</li>
</ul>


As we expected, the expansion of Freshippo cut margin.
We find the exemption of third-party retailer commission also squeezed margin.
Revenue still grew fast.
We believe the stock price has a downside of 23%.


Alibaba (BABA): One More Factor Squeezing Margin in 2Q21 Than Expected

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

The best move for Ant currently seems to be to negotiate with the authorities to get the suspended IPO up and running as soon as possible. However, given the nature of the provisions of the newly proposed regulations on online lending, we believe that this alone might not be sufficient to make Ant attractive again in the eyes of investors. Ant will also need to find a way to fight off the incoming regulations if it wants to continue to leverage the Chinese consumer credit boom.

The best move for Ant currently seems to be to negotiate with the authorities to get the suspended IPO up and running as soon as possible. However, given the nature of the provisions of the newly proposed regulations on online lending, we believe that this alone might not be sufficient to make Ant attractive again in the eyes of investors. Ant will also need to find a way to fight off the incoming regulations if it wants to continue to leverage the Chinese consumer credit boom.

Ant Group: A Suspended IPO Could Be Only the Start of Ant’s Woes

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Alibaba Group Holding  / Technical Analysis

BABA's gap lower provides a good resistance ceiling to mark an area to reduce long exposure amid a more bullish US market equity tone and micro negative news on ANT. Our focus is on trimming long exposure and pinpointing  support to re cycle/buy.Price peaks in July, August and October have not be confirmed by indicators for a case of bear divergence.Weaker buy volume trend on new price highs implies the rise is not only mature but vulnerable.

BABA's gap lower provides a good resistance ceiling to mark an area to reduce long exposure amid a more bullish US market equity tone and micro negative news on ANT. Our focus is on trimming long exposure and pinpointing  support to re cycle/buy.Price peaks in July, August and October have not be confirmed by indicators for a case of bear divergence.Weaker buy volume trend on new price highs implies the rise is not only mature but vulnerable.

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin

SCMA remains a high-quality way to play the recovery in the advertising market, with an increasingly digital twist through Vidio.com

Angus Mackintosh

HSCEI Dec20 Index Rebalance Preview: One Week to Announcement

With 6 trading days to go to the announcement of the HSCEI December index review, we take a look at the performance of the expected inclusions/...

Brian Freitas

Alibaba (BABA): One More Factor Squeezing Margin in 2Q21 Than Expected

As we expected, the expansion of Freshippo cut margin. We find the exemption of third-party retailer commission also squeezed margin.

Ming Lu

Ant Group: A Suspended IPO Could Be Only the Start of Ant’s Woes

On the back of Ant's IPO suspension, we take a look at how potential regulatory changes could materially affect Ant’s business.

Supun Walpola

BABA Sell Resistance and Fresh Long Zone

BABA's gap lower provides a good resistance to reduce long exposure amid a more bullish US market equity tone. Our pinpointing support to re cycle...

Thomas Schroeder

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