Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Softbank is a $23bn winner on the China bounce as Alibaba (+37% over 2 days, $18bn) and Vision Fund (+$4.8bn) recovered from selling pressure over the last week</li>
<li>Improving sentiment aside the discount remains above 50% and the rebound appears to be more about correcting excess selling than a change in market outlook</li>
<li>We remain wary of Chinese exposure in the near-term on political, regulatory and economic risks although the worst appears to be over for now</li>
</ul>


Softbank is a $23bn winner on the China bounce as Alibaba (+37% over 2 days, $18bn) and Vision Fund (+$4.8bn) recovered from selling pressure over the last week
Improving sentiment aside the discount remains above 50% and the rebound appears to be more about correcting excess selling than a change in market outlook
We remain wary of Chinese exposure in the near-term on political, regulatory and economic risks although the worst appears to be over for now


Softbank Group - China Bounce Erases a Week of Losses

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

JD.com Inc (ADR) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 23rd Dec, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com, i.e. 1 share of JD.com for every 21 shares of Tencent.</li>
<li>While Tencent went ex-div on 20th Jan 2022, the actual settlement of the distribution is expected to happen on or about 25th Mar 2022.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in order to decipher the impact on JD.com’s shares once the distribution is settled to determine who the sellers could be.</li>
</ul>


On 23rd Dec, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com, i.e. 1 share of JD.com for every 21 shares of Tencent.
While Tencent went ex-div on 20th Jan 2022, the actual settlement of the distribution is expected to happen on or about 25th Mar 2022.
In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in order to decipher the impact on JD.com’s shares once the distribution is settled to determine who the sellers could be.


JD.com Tencent Div Distribution - The US$10bn Overhang

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>We are outright negative on regional e-commerce names leading into earnings as a small miss could spark a significant sell-off in the current market conditions.</li>
<li>Even though most regional EC names including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> are down by around 65%, we fear that there’s further downside risk in a rising interest rate environment.</li>
<li>In the meantime, we expect Coupang to miss 4Q21 revenue when they report on Thursday. In addition, Coupang has the biggest downside potential as it is expensive compared to peers.</li>
</ul>


We are outright negative on regional e-commerce names leading into earnings as a small miss could spark a significant sell-off in the current market conditions.
Even though most regional EC names including Coupang (CPNG US) are down by around 65%, we fear that there’s further downside risk in a rising interest rate environment.
In the meantime, we expect Coupang to miss 4Q21 revenue when they report on Thursday. In addition, Coupang has the biggest downside potential as it is expensive compared to peers.


Coupang Earnings Preview: More Room to Fall

<ul>
<li>With the penetration rate as high as 42%, Mitra could be fast running out of room for growth.</li>
<li>Consensus seems to be overestimating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a>’s 2021 and 2022 revenue by 22% and 40% respectively.</li>
<li>At 6.0x consensus FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak is still expensive compared to the peer average of 4.3x.</li>
</ul>


With the penetration rate as high as 42%, Mitra could be fast running out of room for growth.
Consensus seems to be overestimating Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)’s 2021 and 2022 revenue by 22% and 40% respectively.
At 6.0x consensus FY+2 revenue, Bukalapak is still expensive compared to the peer average of 4.3x.


Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Trial version e-CNY digital wallet has been launched on iOS and Android app store as the country's central bank steps up its push to develop its own digital currency.</li>
<li>The initial usage shows e-CNY digital wallet is best paired with bank-app to fulfill KYC requirement to open account; standalone digital wallet has difficulty to verify identification.</li>
<li>The rising of China Digital Currency/Electronic Payment system could be disruptive to financial system. We believe it will lead the changes in payment, risk control, user data and credit history. </li>
</ul>


Trial version e-CNY digital wallet has been launched on iOS and Android app store as the country's central bank steps up its push to develop its own digital currency.
The initial usage shows e-CNY digital wallet is best paired with bank-app to fulfill KYC requirement to open account; standalone digital wallet has difficulty to verify identification.
The rising of China Digital Currency/Electronic Payment system could be disruptive to financial system. We believe it will lead the changes in payment, risk control, user data and credit history. 


China Digital Currency: E-CNY Wallet App Launched Before Winter Olympics

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Softbank Group - China Bounce Erases a Week of Losses

China bounce has added $4.8bn to Vision Fund and $18bn to Alibaba and that is enough to get us back to early March levels. We have updated the main...

Kirk Boodry

JD.com Tencent Div Distribution - The US$10bn Overhang

On 23rd Dec 21, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 1 share of JD.com for every 21 shares of Tencent. The shares...

Sumeet Singh

Coupang Earnings Preview: More Room to Fall

With Coupang possibly having the biggest downside potential among leading EC players in the region, we would choose it over others names to have a...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Bukalapak: Still Overvalued & Former CEO’s Ownership Is an Overhang

If Bukalapak maintains the revenue trajectory, which sounds a bit optimistic considering that Mitra is running out of room for growth, Bukalapak's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China Digital Currency: E-CNY Wallet App Launched Before Winter Olympics

Trial version e-CNY digital wallet has been launched on iOS and Android app store as the country's central bank steps up its push to develop its...

Roger Xie

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