Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The steady slowdown in Chinese retail sales growth rates since July 2021 has been a good leading indicator for changes eCommerce GMV and revenue growth rates.</li>
<li>April 2022 Chinese retail sales data (consumer goods were down -11.1%y/y and apparel down -23.2%y/y) is very concerning for the sector</li>
<li>From a company-specific perspective, it still seems as though near-term sell-side expectations remain too optimistic.</li>
</ul>


The steady slowdown in Chinese retail sales growth rates since July 2021 has been a good leading indicator for changes eCommerce GMV and revenue growth rates.
April 2022 Chinese retail sales data (consumer goods were down -11.1%y/y and apparel down -23.2%y/y) is very concerning for the sector
From a company-specific perspective, it still seems as though near-term sell-side expectations remain too optimistic.


Chinese Ecommerce: Chinese Retail Sales Data Indicates Further Near-Term Weakness

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

JD.com Inc (ADR) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>With LIC not delivering and Delhivery needing insurance, combined with the Korean cancellations and HK silence, it looks like its going to be a quiet few weeks for IPOs.</li>
<li>On placements, both the Korean deals were a disappointment, despite being well-flagged.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
With LIC not delivering and Delhivery needing insurance, combined with the Korean cancellations and HK silence, it looks like its going to be a quiet few weeks for IPOs.
On placements, both the Korean deals were a disappointment, despite being well-flagged.


ECM Weekly (22nd May 22) - JD, LIC, Delhivery, Leapmotor, Vista, Paradeep, Woori, Hyundai Heavy, NIO

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Orient Overseas International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao</a> plus the deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings</a> takes us to 69 index stocks.</li>
<li>Changes to the stocks, number of shares, float and capping result in an estimated one-way turnover is 3.43% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$7,444m.</li>
<li>There is huge short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a> and there could be some short covering from now to implementation.</li>
</ul>


The inclusion of Orient Overseas International, Zhongsheng Group, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) and China Hongqiao plus the deletion of AAC Technologies Holdings takes us to 69 index stocks.
Changes to the stocks, number of shares, float and capping result in an estimated one-way turnover is 3.43% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$7,444m.
There is huge short interest on Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) and China Hongqiao (1378 HK) and there could be some short covering from now to implementation.


HSI Index Rebalance: Four Weddings & A Funeral

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.</li>
<li>It focuses on the mid- to high-end segment in China’s NEV market with a price range of RMB150,000-300,000. As of end FY21, it had delivered a total of 52,832 cars.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
It focuses on the mid- to high-end segment in China’s NEV market with a price range of RMB150,000-300,000. As of end FY21, it had delivered a total of 52,832 cars.
In this note, we talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


Leapmotor Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Related Party Sanctions, Lags Peers

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd</a> released a solid set of 1Q2022 results, with very strong YoY growth in e-commerce GAAP revenues, and a predictable softening of gaming revenues given greater mobility in 1Q2022. </li>
<li>A key highlight was improving profitability with the adjusted EBITDA loss per order falling 70% in South-East Asia and Taiwan. Management also signalled that gaming revenues started stabilising end 1Q2022.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> saw a strong rally post these results given guidance was maintained albeit with a wider range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd</a> is now trading at a discount to peers.</li>
</ul>



Sea Ltd released a solid set of 1Q2022 results, with very strong YoY growth in e-commerce GAAP revenues, and a predictable softening of gaming revenues given greater mobility in 1Q2022. 
A key highlight was improving profitability with the adjusted EBITDA loss per order falling 70% in South-East Asia and Taiwan. Management also signalled that gaming revenues started stabilising end 1Q2022.

Sea Ltd (SE US) saw a strong rally post these results given guidance was maintained albeit with a wider range. Sea Ltd is now trading at a discount to peers.


Sea Ltd (SE US) - Reading the Positive Signals

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Chinese Ecommerce: Chinese Retail Sales Data Indicates Further Near-Term Weakness

In this insight, we analyse Chinese retail sales data, its efficacy as a leading indicator for eCommerce revenue growth, and how what near-term...

Wium Malan, CFA

ECM Weekly (22nd May 22) - JD, LIC, Delhivery, Leapmotor, Vista, Paradeep, Woori, Hyundai Heavy, NIO

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

HSI Index Rebalance: Four Weddings & A Funeral

There are 4 adds & 1 delete to take the number of HSI members to 69. There is reasonable impact on the stocks and huge short interest on some of...

Brian Freitas

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Reading the Positive Signals

Sea Ltd saw a strong rally post results given guidance was maintained albeit with a wider range, and it is trading at a discount to peers, despite...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chinese Ecommerce: Chinese Retail Sales Data Indicates Further Near-Term Weakness

In this insight, we analyse Chinese retail sales data, its efficacy as a leading indicator for eCommerce revenue growth, and how what near-term...

Wium Malan, CFA

ECM Weekly (22nd May 22) - JD, LIC, Delhivery, Leapmotor, Vista, Paradeep, Woori, Hyundai Heavy, NIO

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

HSI Index Rebalance: Four Weddings & A Funeral

There are 4 adds & 1 delete to take the number of HSI members to 69. There is reasonable impact on the stocks and huge short interest on some of...

Brian Freitas

Leapmotor Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Related Party Sanctions, Lags Peers

Leapmotor (LM) aims to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Reading the Positive Signals

Sea Ltd saw a strong rally post results given guidance was maintained albeit with a wider range, and it is trading at a discount to peers, despite...

Angus Mackintosh