HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. </li>
<li>A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.</li>
<li>Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.</li>
</ul>


Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. 
A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.
Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.


China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Adani Enterprises is looking to raise INR200bn (US$2.4bn) via a further public offering (FPO). Bookbuild will begin tomorrow (27th Jan 23) and last till the end of the month.</li>
<li>Adani Enterprises is the flagship company of the Adani Group. The group’s entities' stock performance over the past few years has made the founder one of the richest persons globally.</li>
<li>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note published. In this note, we talk about the recent updates and the deal pricing and structure.</li>
</ul>


Adani Enterprises is looking to raise INR200bn (US$2.4bn) via a further public offering (FPO). Bookbuild will begin tomorrow (27th Jan 23) and last till the end of the month.
Adani Enterprises is the flagship company of the Adani Group. The group’s entities' stock performance over the past few years has made the founder one of the richest persons globally.
We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note published. In this note, we talk about the recent updates and the deal pricing and structure.


Adani Enterprises US$2.4bn FPO - Updates, Pricing, Structure, Anchor and Some More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.</li>
<li>We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.</li>
<li>All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.
We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.
All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.</li>
<li>How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.</li>
<li>Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.</li>
</ul>


We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.
How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.
Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.


China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>PDD's spectacular 3Q results will prove unsustainable based on our assessments of its core markets and deep-dive benchmark analysis of growth trajectory of PDD and Alibaba, using GMV as scale.</li>
<li>We see earnings risk going into 2023 due to well-penetrated wallet share of core user base, deflating growth drivers and ramp-up of investments.</li>
<li>In the long term, inevitable multiple compression also renders the risk-return payoff of this US$100bn company mediocre, even under blue-sky growth forecasts. Prefer Alibaba over PDD.</li>
</ul>


PDD's spectacular 3Q results will prove unsustainable based on our assessments of its core markets and deep-dive benchmark analysis of growth trajectory of PDD and Alibaba, using GMV as scale.
We see earnings risk going into 2023 due to well-penetrated wallet share of core user base, deflating growth drivers and ramp-up of investments.
In the long term, inevitable multiple compression also renders the risk-return payoff of this US$100bn company mediocre, even under blue-sky growth forecasts. Prefer Alibaba over PDD.


Pinduoduo (PDD US): Spectacular 3Q, Tough Outlook

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a Rmb3.8trn special purpose bond quota suggested government spending will remain important economic driver. More...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Adani Enterprises US$2.4bn FPO - Updates, Pricing, Structure, Anchor and Some More

Adani Enterprises is looking to raise INR200bn (US$2.4bn) via a further public offering (FPO). We have covered most of the details in our prior...

Sumeet Singh

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Adding 4 stocks gets us to 80 members - a target that was to be reached by mid-2022. We list 10 potential adds where passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Pinduoduo (PDD US): Spectacular 3Q, Tough Outlook

PDD's spectacular 3Q results will prove unsustainable. Near term earnings risk and long term multiple compression render the payoff of this US$100...

Eric Chen

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