China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BABA reported F3Q23 (C4Q22) total revenue largely in line with our est. and cons. Non-GAAP net profit beat our est. and cons. by 5% and 13% YoY.</li>
<li>Taobao will face pricing pressure against JD and PDD. We expect BABA to focus on user content, which leads to improvement in app time spent and advertising. </li>
<li>We cut TP from US$130 to US$110 to reflect intensified competition in eCommerce. Maintain BUY rating due to recovery in CMR and international retail, and rebound in cloud business. </li>
</ul>


BABA reported F3Q23 (C4Q22) total revenue largely in line with our est. and cons. Non-GAAP net profit beat our est. and cons. by 5% and 13% YoY.
Taobao will face pricing pressure against JD and PDD. We expect BABA to focus on user content, which leads to improvement in app time spent and advertising. 
We cut TP from US$130 to US$110 to reflect intensified competition in eCommerce. Maintain BUY rating due to recovery in CMR and international retail, and rebound in cloud business. 


[Alibaba (BABA US) Target Price Change]: Cut TP for Intensified Competition in ECommerce

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday 24 February 2023, the Hang Seng Index Committee announced changes for the HSTECH Index - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (9898 HK)</a> IN, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ming-yuan-cloud-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29268:1" rel="noopener">Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK)</a> OUT.</li>
<li>Notably, the changes in FAF due to the new treatment for Dual Primary Companies means decent boosts in weight for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Of the three "major" indices, this one produces the most fun - US$900mm+ and 8.7% flow one-way. And the big flows are additive to the other indices.</li>
</ul>


On Friday 24 February 2023, the Hang Seng Index Committee announced changes for the HSTECH Index - Weibo Corp (9898 HK) IN, Ming Yuan Cloud Group (909 HK) OUT.
Notably, the changes in FAF due to the new treatment for Dual Primary Companies means decent boosts in weight for XPeng (9868 HK) and Li Auto (2015 HK). 
Of the three "major" indices, this one produces the most fun - US$900mm+ and 8.7% flow one-way. And the big flows are additive to the other indices.


HSTECH Mar23 Index Review/​Flows - Weibo IN, Ming Yuan Cloud OUT, BIGLY Flows on Li Auto & Xpeng

<ul>
<li>HSCEI keeps its constituent count at 80 names, adds <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> and deletes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>There are decent flows in this rebal, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> seeing selling, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> seeing buying. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> sees FAF upweight.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> had called the deletion of China Feihe, but had another name higher on the ADD list. 3.2% and HK$2.6bn one-way flow.</li>
</ul>


HSCEI keeps its constituent count at 80 names, adds XPeng (9868 HK) and deletes China Feihe (6186 HK). 
There are decent flows in this rebal, with Tencent (700 HK) and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) seeing selling, Meituan (3690 HK) seeing buying. Li Auto (2015 HK) sees FAF upweight.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA had called the deletion of China Feihe, but had another name higher on the ADD list. 3.2% and HK$2.6bn one-way flow.


HSCEI Mar23 Index Review/Flows - Xpeng Added, China Feihe Deleted, Li Auto Sees A Bump Up

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 17th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Ctg Duty-Free, Xiaomi, China Shenhua, Meituan, Jd.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 17th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Ctg Duty-Free, Xiaomi, China Shenhua, Meituan, Jd.


HK Short Interest Weekly: CDF, Xiaomi, China Shenhua, Meituan, Jd

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Japan Post Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pertamina-geothermal-energy-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36725:1" rel="noopener">Pertamina Geothermal Energy</a>'s listing kicked of what is shaping up to be  a busy 2023 for ASEAN IPOs</li>
<li>There were a few placements across the region but the biggest news was of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>'s planned selldown by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> </li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, Pertamina Geothermal Energy's listing kicked of what is shaping up to be  a busy 2023 for ASEAN IPOs
There were a few placements across the region but the biggest news was of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)'s planned selldown by Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) 


ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2023) - Japan Post Bank/Holding, Amvis, Pertamina, Zeekr, Honasa, Fangzhou, TVS

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

[Alibaba (BABA US) Target Price Change]: Cut TP for Intensified Competition in ECommerce

We cut Baba's TP from US$130 to US$110 to reflect intensified competition in eCommerce. Maintain BUY rating due to recovery in CMR and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSTECH Mar23 Index Review/Flows - Weibo IN, Ming Yuan Cloud OUT, BIGLY Flows on Li Auto & Xpeng

HSTECH is the most interesting of the 3 major Hang Seng indices. There is one inclusion worth 0.04% but the index sees 8.7% one-way turnover on...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Mar23 Index Review/Flows - Xpeng Added, China Feihe Deleted, Li Auto Sees A Bump Up

The HSCEI Index Review sees one ADD (Xpeng) and one DELETE (China Feihe). These are not unexpected, and the change in FFW because of new treatment...

Travis Lundy

HK Short Interest Weekly: CDF, Xiaomi, China Shenhua, Meituan, Jd

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 17th and highlight short interest changes in CDF, Xiaomi, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2023) - Japan Post Bank/Holding, Amvis, Pertamina, Zeekr, Honasa, Fangzhou, TVS

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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Dividend (Yield)

[Alibaba (BABA US) Target Price Change]: Cut TP for Intensified Competition in ECommerce

We cut Baba's TP from US$130 to US$110 to reflect intensified competition in eCommerce. Maintain BUY rating due to recovery in CMR and...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSTECH Mar23 Index Review/​Flows - Weibo IN, Ming Yuan Cloud OUT, BIGLY Flows on Li Auto & Xpeng

HSTECH is the most interesting of the 3 major Hang Seng indices. There is one inclusion worth 0.04% but the index sees 8.7% one-way turnover on...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Mar23 Index Review/Flows - Xpeng Added, China Feihe Deleted, Li Auto Sees A Bump Up

The HSCEI Index Review sees one ADD (Xpeng) and one DELETE (China Feihe). These are not unexpected, and the change in FFW because of new treatment...

Travis Lundy

HK Short Interest Weekly: CDF, Xiaomi, China Shenhua, Meituan, Jd

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 17th and highlight short interest changes in CDF, Xiaomi, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ECM Weekly (26th Feb 2023) - Japan Post Bank/Holding, Amvis, Pertamina, Zeekr, Honasa, Fangzhou, TVS

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

HSTECH Mar23 Index Review/Flows - Weibo IN, Ming Yuan Cloud OUT, BIGLY Flows on Li Auto & Xpeng