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Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).</p>

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> announced yet another record set of quarterly results last night, with +159% growth in total GAAP revenues to US$2,280.6m. This marks the 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth in revenues, which deserves a standing ovation</p>
<p>The company's digital entertainment business continued to thrive, with quarterly active users (QAU) increasing by +45% YoY and importantly quarterly paying users increasing +85% YoY in 2Q2021, and generating positive EBITDA of US$740.9m.</p>
<p>The quarterly paying users represented a higher portion of users in 2Q2021 and Adjusted EBITDA as a portion of bookings improved to 62.8% for 2Q2021 versus 60.9% in 2Q2020.</p>
<p>Garena's self-developed global hit game <em>Free Fire </em>reached over 1bn downloads on Google Play, with the game ranking number three globally by average monthly users for mobile games in 2Q2021, according to App Annie, with record peak daily users.</p>
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<p>The company's e-commerce business continued to see rapid growth with gross orders up by +127% YoY to 1.4bn orders and gross merchandise value up by +87.5% YoY to US$15bn whilst the adjusted EBITDA loss per order decreased by -19.6% YoY.</p>
<p>Shopee was the second most downloaded app on Google Play and the second most downloaded app across Google Play and iOS app stores combined forte shopping category globally in 2Q2021, according to App Annie.</p>
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<p>In Brazil, where Shopee was launched in late 2019, it ranked first in the shopping category by downloads, and total time spent in-app, as well as ranking second in terms of monthly active users (MAU) for 2Q2021.</p>
<p> In Brazil, it has already made good progress with more monthly active users than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> and stands in the number two position after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercadolibre-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27954:1" rel="noopener">MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US)</a> in terms of active users.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> also continued to make significant progress in digital financial services through the adoption of SeaMoney and ShopeePay, with US$4.1bn in total payment volume in its mobile wallet in 2Q2021, up nearly +150% YoY. It also saw an increase of +109% in quarterly paying users in 2Q2021. </p>
<p>The company continues to grow its ShopeeFood business in Indonesia and Vietnam and has seen a very strong performance and positive reception from users as well as driver communities in both markets in 2Q2021, with a strong focus on the quality of services to users.</p>
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<p>The company booked an overall gross profit increase of +364% YoY. From a non-GAAP EBITDA perspective, the company booked an EBITDA loss of (US$24.1m) versus an EBITDA profit of US$7.7m.</p>
<p>From a segmental point of view, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> booked a positive EBITDA of US$740.9m for its digital entertainment segment in 2Q2021 versus US436.2m last year in the same period, an increase of +69.8% YoY. </p>
<p>The e-commerce segment booked an EBITDA loss of (US$579.8m) in 2Q2021 versus a loss of (US$313.7m) last year, an increase in loss of +84.8% YoY.</p>
</section>
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<section class="figure">These look like yet another blow away set of numbers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, despite the company booking a marginally higher loss. It is all too easy to take a negative view on a high-growth company such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> but most negative arguments from analysts tinker with the quarterly minutiae and are somehow blind to the longer-term positive story and the company's growth model.</section>
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<section class="figure">Management has also raised its full-year guidance, which is now well above analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively to the results breaking out above US$300 to close at a new record close. We remain positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, which now trades on 10.5x FY22E EV/Sales and 8x FY23E EV/sales, which may look rich but is justified by superior growth to its peers, with e-commerce and digital finance fuelled by the company's gaming business. </section>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/224/473/original/Screenshot+2021-08-18+at+9.41.40+AM.png?1629251005" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="224473"></figure>
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</section>

Sea Ltd (SE US) announced yet another record set of quarterly results last night, with +159% growth in total GAAP revenues to US$2,280.6m. This marks the 12th consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth in revenues, which deserves a standing ovation
The company's digital entertainment business continued to thrive, with quarterly active users (QAU) increasing by +45% YoY and importantly quarterly paying users increasing +85% YoY in 2Q2021, and generating positive EBITDA of US$740.9m.
The quarterly paying users represented a higher portion of users in 2Q2021 and Adjusted EBITDA as a portion of bookings improved to 62.8% for 2Q2021 versus 60.9% in 2Q2020.
Garena's self-developed global hit game Free Fire reached over 1bn downloads on Google Play, with the game ranking number three globally by average monthly users for mobile games in 2Q2021, according to App Annie, with record peak daily users.

The company's e-commerce business continued to see rapid growth with gross orders up by +127% YoY to 1.4bn orders and gross merchandise value up by +87.5% YoY to US$15bn whilst the adjusted EBITDA loss per order decreased by -19.6% YoY.
Shopee was the second most downloaded app on Google Play and the second most downloaded app across Google Play and iOS app stores combined forte shopping category globally in 2Q2021, according to App Annie.

In Brazil, where Shopee was launched in late 2019, it ranked first in the shopping category by downloads, and total time spent in-app, as well as ranking second in terms of monthly active users (MAU) for 2Q2021.
 In Brazil, it has already made good progress with more monthly active users than Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Alibaba Group (BABA US) and stands in the number two position after MercadoLibre Inc (MELI US) in terms of active users.
Sea Ltd (SE US) also continued to make significant progress in digital financial services through the adoption of SeaMoney and ShopeePay, with US$4.1bn in total payment volume in its mobile wallet in 2Q2021, up nearly +150% YoY. It also saw an increase of +109% in quarterly paying users in 2Q2021. 
The company continues to grow its ShopeeFood business in Indonesia and Vietnam and has seen a very strong performance and positive reception from users as well as driver communities in both markets in 2Q2021, with a strong focus on the quality of services to users.


The company booked an overall gross profit increase of +364% YoY. From a non-GAAP EBITDA perspective, the company booked an EBITDA loss of (US$24.1m) versus an EBITDA profit of US$7.7m.
From a segmental point of view, Sea Ltd (SE US) booked a positive EBITDA of US$740.9m for its digital entertainment segment in 2Q2021 versus US436.2m last year in the same period, an increase of +69.8% YoY. 
The e-commerce segment booked an EBITDA loss of (US$579.8m) in 2Q2021 versus a loss of (US$313.7m) last year, an increase in loss of +84.8% YoY.


These look like yet another blow away set of numbers for Sea Ltd (SE US), despite the company booking a marginally higher loss. It is all too easy to take a negative view on a high-growth company such as Sea Ltd (SE US) but most negative arguments from analysts tinker with the quarterly minutiae and are somehow blind to the longer-term positive story and the company's growth model.




Management has also raised its full-year guidance, which is now well above analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively to the results breaking out above US$300 to close at a new record close. We remain positive on Sea Ltd (SE US), which now trades on 10.5x FY22E EV/Sales and 8x FY23E EV/sales, which may look rich but is justified by superior growth to its peers, with e-commerce and digital finance fuelled by the company's gaming business. 














Global TMT analyst with Asia ex-Japan focus.

Mitchell Kim

<p>In June, I turned more constructive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vipshop-holdings-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1088:1" rel="noopener">Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)</a> as a rare value play among the online shopping platforms after the stock price fell more than 50% from the peak in March.  Since then, the stock price fell another 26% as the Chinese tech selloff continued even though VIPS faces relatively lower regulatory risk. Considering the continued operational improvements (even though the profits missed consensus expectations, margins remained stable). I believe the stock offers an attractive risk-return proposition.   </p><p><strong>I find VIPS more attractive at this point because of the following three reasons:</strong></p><ol>
<li>
<strong>Vipshop is subject to relatively lower regulatory risk.</strong>  VIPS was penalized just a small fine thus far. VIPS is relatively immune from the new Data Security Law (DSL) to be adopted on 1 September.    </li>
<li>
<strong>Vipshop is trading near historic low valuations.</strong> VIPS shares trade at 8.6x FY21 and 7.4x FY22 consensus earnings and at the historic low P/E band.  This level is similar to when the company recorded 9% revenue growth and a 3.5% operating margin.  This is a whole new company with substantially higher revenue and profit growth. </li>
<li>
<strong>Weak 2Q21 results provide a better entry point.</strong> VIPS' 2Q21 showed resilient top-line growth but margins took a hit, indicating the higher cost of acquisitions.  But VIPS is a different company than the weaker 2018-2019 self.      </li>
</ol>

In June, I turned more constructive on Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) as a rare value play among the online shopping platforms after the stock price fell more than 50% from the peak in March.  Since then, the stock price fell another 26% as the Chinese tech selloff continued even though VIPS faces relatively lower regulatory risk. Considering the continued operational improvements (even though the profits missed consensus expectations, margins remained stable). I believe the stock offers an attractive risk-return proposition.   I find VIPS more attractive at this point because of the following three reasons:

Vipshop is subject to relatively lower regulatory risk.  VIPS was penalized just a small fine thus far. VIPS is relatively immune from the new Data Security Law (DSL) to be adopted on 1 September.    

Vipshop is trading near historic low valuations. VIPS shares trade at 8.6x FY21 and 7.4x FY22 consensus earnings and at the historic low P/E band.  This level is similar to when the company recorded 9% revenue growth and a 3.5% operating margin.  This is a whole new company with substantially higher revenue and profit growth. 

Weak 2Q21 results provide a better entry point. VIPS' 2Q21 showed resilient top-line growth but margins took a hit, indicating the higher cost of acquisitions.  But VIPS is a different company than the weaker 2018-2019 self.      


Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>WeChat Pay still grew strongly, taking advantage of AliPay’s mess.</li>
<li>Mobile game slowed down because of high comparison base, but the pandemic came back and might lead to another round of lockdown.</li>
<li>The only problem is the stagnancy of the online TV market.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 42% for the end of June 2022. Buy.</li>
</ul>


WeChat Pay still grew strongly, taking advantage of AliPay’s mess.
Mobile game slowed down because of high comparison base, but the pandemic came back and might lead to another round of lockdown.
The only problem is the stagnancy of the online TV market.
We believe the stock has an upside of 42% for the end of June 2022. Buy.


Tencent (700 HK): 2Q21, Generally Healthy Quarter and Overly Impacted Price

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<p><strong><em>*Results Deteriorating As Distractions Mount: </em></strong>Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] 2Q21 GAAP net income declined CNY 5.2 bn (10.8%) on a linked quarter basis – and were of poor quality. Results were challenged by the following: cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; losses in associates; higher impairment charges; and weaker online games. Were it not for the artificially lower tax rate, results would have been even more challenged; and     </p><p><strong><em>*Elephants In The Room: </em></strong>Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". We have already witnessed fines at Tencent, new user WeChat suspensions,  and Tencent may have to give up its exclusive music rights and possibly dispose of Kuwo and Kugou. Further, there no doubt that Tencent will also follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in their formation of a financial holding company. Its pretty surprising that Tencent refuses to discuss these matters.   </p>

*Results Deteriorating As Distractions Mount: Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] 2Q21 GAAP net income declined CNY 5.2 bn (10.8%) on a linked quarter basis – and were of poor quality. Results were challenged by the following: cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; losses in associates; higher impairment charges; and weaker online games. Were it not for the artificially lower tax rate, results would have been even more challenged; and     *Elephants In The Room: Mainland China's crackdown on capital markets has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". We have already witnessed fines at Tencent, new user WeChat suspensions,  and Tencent may have to give up its exclusive music rights and possibly dispose of Kuwo and Kugou. Further, there no doubt that Tencent will also follow Alibaba Group (BABA.US) [Alibaba] in their formation of a financial holding company. Its pretty surprising that Tencent refuses to discuss these matters.   

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #45

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming. The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory...

Granite Bay Capital

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Standing Ovation

Sea Ltd released another record quarterly result affirming its leading position in gaming and e-commerce in SE Asia, with some positive signals...

Angus Mackintosh

Vipshop (VIPS US): Too Cheap to Ignore

Rejuvenated growth slowed in 2Q21, but I offer three reasons why investors should use the recent pullback as an opportunity.

Mitchell Kim

Tencent (700 HK): 2Q21, Generally Healthy Quarter and Overly Impacted Price

WeChat Pay still grew strongly, taking advantage of AliPay’s mess. Mobile game slowed down because of high comparison base, but the pandemic came...

Ming Lu

Tencent Holdings – Pig Piling

TENCENT: Tencent's QOQ 2Q21 income declined 10.8% due to cost of revenue and opex increases; associate losses; higher impairments; and weak online...

Thomas J. Monaco

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