Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Optimism for improved shareholder returns through IPOs diminishes further as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> puts the Cloud spinoff on hold.</li>
<li>Jack Ma's sale of 10m ADS, representing 5% of his Alibaba holdings, sparks concern. Investors should worry about his lack of optimism.</li>
<li>With the Cloud IPO on hold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> is vulnerable to numerous downside catalysts, as outlined below.</li>
</ul>


Optimism for improved shareholder returns through IPOs diminishes further as Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) puts the Cloud spinoff on hold.
Jack Ma's sale of 10m ADS, representing 5% of his Alibaba holdings, sparks concern. Investors should worry about his lack of optimism.
With the Cloud IPO on hold, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) is vulnerable to numerous downside catalysts, as outlined below.


Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BABA/VIPS/PDD/3690.HK/JD: Social Retail Consumption data improved in October MoM (+)</li>
<li>700.HK: Tencent raises ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming Studio (+)</li>
<li>SE/ PDD/ BABA: Highlights of Sea Limited's  disappointing Q3 results(-)</li>
</ul>


BABA/VIPS/PDD/3690.HK/JD: Social Retail Consumption data improved in October MoM (+)
700.HK: Tencent raises ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming Studio (+)
SE/ PDD/ BABA: Highlights of Sea Limited's  disappointing Q3 results(-)


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: BABA/ VIPS/PDD/JD/Meituan, 3690.HK/Tencent, 700.HK/SE

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2</li>
<li>FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled</li>
<li>Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth</li>
</ul>


Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2
FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled
Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth


CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Dec 23 review results for the Hang Seng Tech Index were announced on Friday 17 November after the close.</li>
<li>There were no ADDs to or DELETEs from the index, in something of a surprise. </li>
<li>The "big flow" on HS TECH is the downweight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> due to sharp capping after significant outperformance since the August review.</li>
</ul>


The Dec 23 review results for the Hang Seng Tech Index were announced on Friday 17 November after the close.
There were no ADDs to or DELETEs from the index, in something of a surprise. 
The "big flow" on HS TECH is the downweight on Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) due to sharp capping after significant outperformance since the August review.


Hang Seng Tech Dec23 Index Review/Flows - No Name Changes, Some Big Capping Flows

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI Review for December 2023 was announced on Friday 17 November. </li>
<li>There were no ADDs and no DELETEs, which was a bit of a surprise.</li>
<li>There is about 2.8% one-way to trade. Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is a sell across all three major indices.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI Review for December 2023 was announced on Friday 17 November. 
There were no ADDs and no DELETEs, which was a bit of a surprise.
There is about 2.8% one-way to trade. Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is a sell across all three major indices.


HSCEI Dec23 Index Review/​Flows - NO ADDs, No DELETEs; ~2.5% One Way

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Alibaba: Bull Thesis Shattered

Putting the Cloud spinoff on hold renders Alibaba's share price susceptible to downside catalysts, creating a vulnerable position for the company...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: BABA/ VIPS/PDD/JD/Meituan, 3690.HK/Tencent, 700.HK/SE

Social retail consumption data improved in October for BABA, VIPS, PDD, 3690.HK, and JD. Tencent increased ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

Hang Seng Tech Dec23 Index Review/Flows - No Name Changes, Some Big Capping Flows

Hang Seng Index team announced the December 2023 review for the Hang Seng Tech index on 17 Nov after the close. No name changes. But several...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Dec23 Index Review/Flows - NO ADDs, No DELETEs; ~2.5% One Way

Hang Seng Indices announced the Dec 2023 review for the HSCEI on Friday 17 November after the close. No name changes, which is a surprise....

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba: Bull Thesis Shattered

​Putting the Cloud spinoff on hold renders Alibaba's share price susceptible to downside catalysts, creating a vulnerable position for the company...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]: BABA/ VIPS/PDD/JD/Meituan, 3690.HK/Tencent, 700.HK/SE

​Social retail consumption data improved in October for BABA, VIPS, PDD, 3690.HK, and JD. Tencent increased ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

Hang Seng Tech Dec23 Index Review/Flows - No Name Changes, Some Big Capping Flows

Hang Seng Index team announced the December 2023 review for the Hang Seng Tech index on 17 Nov after the close. No name changes. But several...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Dec23 Index Review/​Flows - NO ADDs, No DELETEs; ~2.5% One Way

Hang Seng Indices announced the Dec 2023 review for the HSCEI on Friday 17 November after the close. No name changes, which is a surprise....

Travis Lundy

Putting the Cloud spinoff on hold renders Alibaba's share price susceptible to downside catalysts, creating a vulnerable position for the company...

Social retail consumption data improved in October for BABA, VIPS, PDD, 3690.HK, and JD. Tencent increased ownership stake in a Wuxia Genre Gaming...

HSCEI Dec23 Index Review/Flows - NO ADDs, No DELETEs; ~2.5% One Way