Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. </li>
<li>Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.</li>
<li>But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. </li>
</ul>



Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. 
Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.
But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. 


Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

<ul>
<li>The Allkem/Livent "merger of equals" discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-ake-au-lthm-us-merger-of-lithium-equals-has-index-surprises" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101879" rel="noopener">Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/allkem-livent-enlarged-charging-unit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:101914" rel="noopener">Allkem/​Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit</a> is on track.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230928/pdf/05vdp2j4k6sqn9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">As of the end of last month</a>, all approvals are received or are expected to be received. The Scheme Booklet is expected next month. Deal is expected to close end-CY2023.</li>
<li>The deal STILL has interesting side issues with index. Even more interesting than Newcrest/Newmont. This is an update with more detail as we probably have 8-10 weeks left.</li>
</ul>


The Allkem/Livent "merger of equals" discussed in Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Of Lithium Equals Has Index Surprises and Allkem/​Livent: Enlarged Charging Unit is on track.

As of the end of last month, all approvals are received or are expected to be received. The Scheme Booklet is expected next month. Deal is expected to close end-CY2023.
The deal STILL has interesting side issues with index. Even more interesting than Newcrest/Newmont. This is an update with more detail as we probably have 8-10 weeks left.


Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Update:  MUCH More Than Meets The Eye

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, and no regular changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX in June.</li>
<li>The surprise inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisetech-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22669:1" rel="noopener">Wisetech Global (WTC AU)</a> means that positioning is likely to be lower than the passive buying and there could be a move higher in the stock.</li>
<li>There will be one adhoc inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 19 June following Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)'s acquisition of CSR Ltd (CSR AU). </li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, and no regular changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX in June.
The surprise inclusion of Wisetech Global (WTC AU) means that positioning is likely to be lower than the passive buying and there could be a move higher in the stock.
There will be one adhoc inclusion to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 19 June following Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)'s acquisition of CSR Ltd (CSR AU). 


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> shareholders have overwhelmingly approved the dual-track bid from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> and Hancock. The scheme offer is A$3.70 per share.</li>
<li>The shares fell 7%, seemingly due to concerns about FIRB approval sparked by FIRB’s request for an extension on 3 April and today’s <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/chinese-miners-in-2-5b-payday-from-australian-lithium-holdings-20240404-p5fhix" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR article</a> on China’s Australian lithium holdings. </li>
<li>FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a> small indirect interest in Andover, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a> precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained relationship. </li>
</ul>



Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders have overwhelmingly approved the dual-track bid from Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and Hancock. The scheme offer is A$3.70 per share.
The shares fell 7%, seemingly due to concerns about FIRB approval sparked by FIRB’s request for an extension on 3 April and today’s AFR article on China’s Australian lithium holdings. 
FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power International (LPI AU) precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained relationship. 


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends, Commodities Focus

Commodities Focus

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis of key news and pricing issues from across the global shipping, natural gas, power, petrochemicals, agriculture, and coal markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Developers scrambled to advertise projects to potential investors in the US between 2021-2023</li><li>Prices for lithium reached all time highs due to impact of COVID on supply chains</li><li>Prices have since plunged nearing a three-year low, causing uncertainty for companies with viable projects and automakers scaling back EV production forecasts</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Developers scrambled to advertise projects to potential investors in the US between 2021-2023Prices for lithium reached all time highs due to impact of COVID on supply chainsPrices have since plunged nearing a three-year low, causing uncertainty for companies with viable projects and automakers scaling back EV production forecastsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Lithium producers pump brakes on North American projects amid low prices

United States

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products globally. The Company's principal products in the nitrogen segment are ammonia, urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, ammonium nitrate, diesel exhaust fluid and aqua ammonia. The principal products in the phosphate segment are diammonium phosphate and  monoammonium phosphate.

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. manufactures, markets and distributes coatings systems. The Company offers products and services which includes paint, color matching tools, application technologies, and customer  training and business management systems. Axalta Coating Systems serves automotive, transportation,  general industrial, and architectural and decorative sectors.

FMC Corp operates as a diversified research company in the chemical industry. The company offers technology solutions for agricultural, industrial, and consumer markets. FMC Corp offer an array of technologies in research and development to improve delivery of medications, enhance foods and beverages, power batteries, protect crop yields, and advance textile manufacturing.

RPM International, Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells various specialty chemical product lines. The Company's product lines include specialty paints, protective coatings and roofing systems, sealants and adhesives, focusing on the maintenance needs of both the industrial and consumer markets.

Celanese Corporation is a global integrated producer of chemicals and advanced materials. The Company's products include acetyl, acetate, vinyl emulsion, and engineered polymers. Celanese Corp's operations are primarily located in North America, Europe and Asia.

Eastman Chemical Company is an international chemical company which produces chemicals, fibers, and plastics.  The Company's operations include coatings, adhesives, specialty polymers, and Inks, fibers, performance chemicals and intermediates, performance polymers, and specialty plastics.

The Mosaic Company produces and distributes crop nutrients to the agricultural communities located in North America and other countries.  The Company's principal products include concentrated phosphates, and potash.

Olin Corporation manufactures chemicals and ammunition products. The Company manufactures and sells chlorine, caustic soda, sodium hydrosulfite, hydrochloric acid, hydrogen, sodium chlorate, bleach products, and potassium hydroxide. Olin also manufactures products that include sporting ammunition, reloading components, small caliber military ammunition and industrial cartridges.

Element Solutions Inc operates as a specialty chemicals company. The Company manufactures and supplies specialty chemicals used by the electronics, metal and plastic plating, graphic arts, and offshore oil production and drilling industries. Element Solutions serves customers worldwide.

Quaker Chemical Corporation produces, develops, and markets custom-formulated chemical specialty products.  The Company also provides fluid management services for manufacturers around the world, primarily in the steel, automotive, and can industries.

TORAY INDUSTRIES, INC. manufactures yarns, synthetic fibers, and man-made leather used as apparel and industrial materials.  The Company also makes chemical products such as polyester films, engineering plastics, and resin materials.  Toray develops information equipment such as electronic circuit and liquid crystal color filter.

Orica Limited is a diversified manufacturing company.  The Company produces industrial and specialty chemicals, polyethylene, surface coatings for vehicles, food and beverage flavoring and fragrances, packaging and appliances. The Company also supplies explosive and blasting services to the mining, quarrying and construction industries.

LG Chem Ltd. is a chemical manufacturer.  The Company's products include petrochemicals, plastic resins, and engineering plastics.  LG Chem also produces industrial and electronic materials.

NITTO DENKO CORPORATION manufactures and markets a wide range of chemical products which are used as materials for industrial and electronic components. The Company's products include materials for sealants, semiconductors, and wrappings.  Nitto Denko has a network of sales/manufacturing subsidiaries worldwide.

Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation manufactures and markets petrochemical products, nylon fiber, and rayon staple fiber.  Formosa sells its products in Taiwan and exports to Asia.

Solar Industries India Limited manufactures and supplies explosives and explosives accessories. The company's products include bulk, cartridge, detonators, detonating cords Pentaerythritol Tetranitrate ("PETN"), and cast boosters.

Satelltte Chemical Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells acrylic acid esters, methacrylic acids, pigment intermediates, acrylic emulsion polymers, super absorbent polymers, and other acrylic downstream products.

Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.,Ltd manufactures and markets fertilizer products. The Company produces potash fertilizers, potassium chloride, and other products. Qinghai Salt Lake Industry also produces salts, chemicals, and other products.

Berger Paints India Limited manufactures and distributes paints, enamels, varnishes, and synthetic resins. The Company's products are used in home, office, factory, interiors, exteriors, metal, wood, plastic, and others.

Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc. develops, manufactures and sells lithium products.  The Company's products include industrial lithium carbonate, battery lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, and lithium hydroxide.

Albemarle Corporation produces specialty and fine chemicals.  The Company's chemicals are additives to or intermediates for plastics, polymers and elastomers, cleaning products, agricultural compounds, pharmaceuticals, photographic chemicals, drilling compounds, and biocides.  Albemarle produces the majority of its products in the United States.

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Albemarle Corp (ALB US)

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Update: MUCH More Than Meets The Eye

The Allkem/Livent Shareholder Meetings take place 19 Dec. If agreed, this deal gets done quickly. Then we have index fun. The price of lithium...

Travis Lundy

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There is 1 change for the ASX20, 1 change for the ASX50, 2 changes for the ASX100 in June. Codan and Judo Capital are locked in a race to replace...

Brian Freitas

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi's small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained...

Arun George

Lithium producers pump brakes on North American projects amid low prices

Prices have since plunged nearing a three-year low, causing uncertainty for companies with viable projects and automakers scaling back EV...

Commodities Focus

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

Allkem/Livent (AKE AU | LTHM US) Merger Update: MUCH More Than Meets The Eye

The Allkem/Livent Shareholder Meetings take place 19 Dec. If agreed, this deal gets done quickly. Then we have index fun. The price of lithium...

Travis Lundy

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning

There is 1 change for the ASX20, 1 change for the ASX50, 2 changes for the ASX100 in June. Codan and Judo Capital are locked in a race to replace...

Brian Freitas

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi's small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained...

Arun George

Lithium producers pump brakes on North American projects amid low prices

Prices have since plunged nearing a three-year low, causing uncertainty for companies with viable projects and automakers scaling back EV...

Commodities Focus

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2024): Changes, Flows, Impact, Shorts & Positioning