Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Unlike ADC, there're still doubts on the outlook of whole bispecific antibody mechanism. Alphamab Oncology doesn't actively promote related head-to-head trials, which makes people doubt the competitiveness of its products.</li>
<li>Investors' trust in Alphamab Oncology continues to decline, mainly because the Company often missed the guidance/milestones it announced before. This will greatly affect the credibility of Alphamab Oncology.</li>
<li>The current valuation is expensive and has basically priced in all the positive factors. The Company is more suitable for short-term trading to capture the rebound rather than long-term holding.</li>
</ul>


Unlike ADC, there're still doubts on the outlook of whole bispecific antibody mechanism. Alphamab Oncology doesn't actively promote related head-to-head trials, which makes people doubt the competitiveness of its products.
Investors' trust in Alphamab Oncology continues to decline, mainly because the Company often missed the guidance/milestones it announced before. This will greatly affect the credibility of Alphamab Oncology.
The current valuation is expensive and has basically priced in all the positive factors. The Company is more suitable for short-term trading to capture the rebound rather than long-term holding.


Alphamab Co Ltd Placement (9966.HK) - Has No Potential to Be a Biopharma; Just Remain as a Biotech

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New policy was released to support the development of surgical robots in China, which would be short-term catalyst for related companies, but it may not bring high profits.</li>
<li>In fact, since March, it may not be appropriate for healthcare companies to use the COVID-19 as a reason if their performance in the following months is not as expected.</li>
<li>Before DRGs/DIP policy becomes very “lethal”, there is a “policy vacuum period” in the next two or three years, which is a good opportunity to go long in China healthcare.</li>
</ul>


New policy was released to support the development of surgical robots in China, which would be short-term catalyst for related companies, but it may not bring high profits.
In fact, since March, it may not be appropriate for healthcare companies to use the COVID-19 as a reason if their performance in the following months is not as expected.
Before DRGs/DIP policy becomes very “lethal”, there is a “policy vacuum period” in the next two or three years, which is a good opportunity to go long in China healthcare.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) - Surgical Robots New Policy, COVID-19 Update, Policy Vacuum Period

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED entered into an exclusive license agreement with Takeda- HUTCHMED will receive up to US$1.13 billion including US$400 million upfront, the third highest upfront among China’s TOP 10 license-out deals.</li>
<li>Even if fruquintinib may probably not become a blockbuster product in the future, HUTCHMED still gets a decent upfront to relieve its cash flow pressure and an internationalization admission ticket.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchmed-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:133:1" rel="noopener">Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK) </a>is undervalued based on our sales forecast. After savolitinib has been included in the updated NRDL, this year’s performance growth is worth looking forward to.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED entered into an exclusive license agreement with Takeda- HUTCHMED will receive up to US$1.13 billion including US$400 million upfront, the third highest upfront among China’s TOP 10 license-out deals.
Even if fruquintinib may probably not become a blockbuster product in the future, HUTCHMED still gets a decent upfront to relieve its cash flow pressure and an internationalization admission ticket.

Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK) is undervalued based on our sales forecast. After savolitinib has been included in the updated NRDL, this year’s performance growth is worth looking forward to.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - The $1.13B Eye-Catching Deal with Takeda and the New Outlook

<ul>
<li>The 2022 NRDL negotiation results were released. We analyzed some points worth investor's attention.</li>
<li>The "safety pad" brought by medical insurance is difficult to ensure products future sales.Even after entering NRDL, how to improve patient/doctor coverage is an important problem for enterprises to consider.</li>
<li>Here are some companies that investors are interested in. We mainly analyzed some key points of them, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sirnaomics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33804:1" rel="noopener">Sirnaomics (2257 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jw-therapeutics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29679:1" rel="noopener">JW Therapeutics (2126 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The 2022 NRDL negotiation results were released. We analyzed some points worth investor's attention.
The "safety pad" brought by medical insurance is difficult to ensure products future sales.Even after entering NRDL, how to improve patient/doctor coverage is an important problem for enterprises to consider.
Here are some companies that investors are interested in. We mainly analyzed some key points of them, including Sirnaomics (2257 HK), JW Therapeutics (2126 HK), Antengene (6996 HK). 


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.20) - NRDL Negotiation Results, JW Therapeutics, Sirnaomics, Antengene

China

Akeso Inc. operates operatesa s a biotech company. The compnay develops treatments and therapies for various types of diseases. Akeso serves cutomers worldwide

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK)

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Alphamab Co Ltd Placement (9966.HK) - Has No Potential to Be a Biopharma; Just Remain as a Biotech

We doubt the competitiveness of Alphamab's products. Its credibility has also been affected. It's more suitable for short-term trade than long-term...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.27) - Surgical Robots New Policy, COVID-19 Update, Policy Vacuum Period

New policy released to support development of surgical robot. COVID-19 is no longer an excuse for company's poor performance. It's a good time to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/HCM.US) - The $1.13B Eye-Catching Deal with Takeda and the New Outlook

HUTCHMED/Takeda $1.13 billion license agreement is very worthy of learning.Together with savolitinib's inclusion in new NRDL,2023 performance...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.20) - NRDL Negotiation Results, JW Therapeutics, Sirnaomics, Antengene

We analyzed 2022 NRDL negotiation result - There're positive sides.The "safety pad" brought by medical insurance coverage may not be high.We...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)