HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Akeso Biopharma Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>HARMONi-2 results are impressive and the overall data is solid and reliable. The NMPA has approved NDA of ebronucimab and sNDA of cadonilimab. Akeso's fundamentals have indeed undergone positive changes.</li>
<li>Akeso's current market capitalization already partially reflects the positive expectation about the future successful FDA approval of AK112. In our view, the Placing Price is not cheap.</li>
<li>When the market value falls back to below RMB45 billion is a more comfortable valuation to buy Akeso, and below RMB35 billion market value provides a golden opportunity. </li>
</ul>


HARMONi-2 results are impressive and the overall data is solid and reliable. The NMPA has approved NDA of ebronucimab and sNDA of cadonilimab. Akeso's fundamentals have indeed undergone positive changes.
Akeso's current market capitalization already partially reflects the positive expectation about the future successful FDA approval of AK112. In our view, the Placing Price is not cheap.
When the market value falls back to below RMB45 billion is a more comfortable valuation to buy Akeso, and below RMB35 billion market value provides a golden opportunity. 


Akeso Biopharma Placement - The Placing Price Is Not Cheap Despite Positive Business Progress

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akeso-biopharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28830:1" rel="noopener">Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$200m from its primary placement. Proceeds from the placement will be used for R&amp;D.</li>
<li>Past deals in the name haven’t done well recently but the shares have been doing well and the deal size remains small.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) is looking to raise around US$200m from its primary placement. Proceeds from the placement will be used for R&amp;D.
Past deals in the name haven’t done well recently but the shares have been doing well and the deal size remains small.
In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Akeso Placement - Opportunistic Raise, past Deal Record Has Been Mixed but Relative Size Is Small

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AK112’s HARMONi-2 results were impressive, but there’s still critical data gap before obtaining approval from FDA. The main concern is whether good PFS can be translated into significant OS benefits.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akeso-biopharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28830:1" rel="noopener">Akeso </a>will be eligible to receive low double-digit royalties on net sales from Summit. So, Summit is actually a better investment because it has complete global rights of AK112.</li>
<li>Investors are betting Summit to be acquired by MNCs at a high price.Due to anti-monopoly issue, the narrowing pool of potential buyers would increase the difficulty of Summit being acquired.</li>
</ul>


AK112’s HARMONi-2 results were impressive, but there’s still critical data gap before obtaining approval from FDA. The main concern is whether good PFS can be translated into significant OS benefits.

Akeso will be eligible to receive low double-digit royalties on net sales from Summit. So, Summit is actually a better investment because it has complete global rights of AK112.
Investors are betting Summit to be acquired by MNCs at a high price.Due to anti-monopoly issue, the narrowing pool of potential buyers would increase the difficulty of Summit being acquired.


Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) - Something Beautiful Is Happening

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Akeso reported C1H24 top line, non-IFRS operating loss and IFRS net loss 10% above, 13% narrower and 3.5% narrower than our estimates. </li>
<li>The most positive takeaway from the result is the Phase III start of CD-47 mAb (AK117), which can potentially be a global first-in-class (FIC). </li>
<li>We raised TP from HK$58 to HK$63 and reiterate our TOP BUY.</li>
</ul>


Akeso reported C1H24 top line, non-IFRS operating loss and IFRS net loss 10% above, 13% narrower and 3.5% narrower than our estimates. 
The most positive takeaway from the result is the Phase III start of CD-47 mAb (AK117), which can potentially be a global first-in-class (FIC). 
We raised TP from HK$58 to HK$63 and reiterate our TOP BUY.


[Akeso Inc. (9926 HK, BUY, TP HK$63) TP Change]: Too Many Positives to Count…Reiterate TOP BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>In 1H24, Akeso recorded RMB1.03bn in revenue, including RMB939mn from product sales.</li><li>Cadonilimab/AK104 (PD-1/CTLA-4) recorded RMB706mn in sales in 1H24, +16% YoY or -6% HoH, accounting for 39% of our previous full-year estimate.</li><li>We attribute the weaker-than-expected sales performance to the preparation for NRDL inclusion. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In 1H24, Akeso recorded RMB1.03bn in revenue, including RMB939mn from product sales.Cadonilimab/AK104 (PD-1/CTLA-4) recorded RMB706mn in sales in 1H24, +16% YoY or -6% HoH, accounting for 39% of our previous full-year estimate.We attribute the weaker-than-expected sales performance to the preparation for NRDL inclusion. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Akeso (9926 HK) - Eyes on the Detailed Head-To-Head Data of AK112 at WCLC in Sep

China

Akeso Inc. operates operatesa s a biotech company. The compnay develops treatments and therapies for various types of diseases. Akeso serves cutomers worldwide

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Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK)

Akeso Biopharma Placement - The Placing Price Is Not Cheap Despite Positive Business Progress

Akeso delivers impressive HARMONi-2 data, which greatly increases the possibility of positive OS. But the market cap already partially reflects...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso Placement - Opportunistic Raise, past Deal Record Has Been Mixed but Relative Size Is Small

Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) is looking to raise around US$200m from its primary placement. Proceeds from the placement will be used for R&D.

Sumeet Singh