Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Alkem Laboratories Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkem-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26928:1" rel="noopener">Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN)</a> reports 1% revenue growth in Q4FY24. However, gross margin improved significantly backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in U.S.</li>
<li>For FY25, the company has guided for 10% YoY revenue growth, which is at par with the last five year’s average growth.</li>
<li>Alkem expects to maintain FY25 gross margin and EBITDA margin at the current level. As API prices have become mostly stable, there is limited room for further margin expansion.</li>
</ul>



Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN) reports 1% revenue growth in Q4FY24. However, gross margin improved significantly backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in U.S.
For FY25, the company has guided for 10% YoY revenue growth, which is at par with the last five year’s average growth.
Alkem expects to maintain FY25 gross margin and EBITDA margin at the current level. As API prices have become mostly stable, there is limited room for further margin expansion.


Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Sluggish Performance Expected In Near-Term; Time to Book Profit

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ipca-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15774:1" rel="noopener">Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN)</a> reported strong Q3FY24 results, with revenue and net profit increasing 33% and 67%, YoY, respectively. Domestic formulation and generic exports remained main growth drivers.</li>
<li>Ipca’s India formulation business revenue is expected to grow 15% YoY to ~INR7,000 million in Q4FY24. The company guided for 13–14% domestic revenue growth in FY25.</li>
<li>Riding on improving profitability at Unichem operation and launch of U.S. product, Ipca is expecting 10–12% growth in EBITDA and 2% improvement in EBITDA margin in FY25.  </li>
</ul>



Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN) reported strong Q3FY24 results, with revenue and net profit increasing 33% and 67%, YoY, respectively. Domestic formulation and generic exports remained main growth drivers.
Ipca’s India formulation business revenue is expected to grow 15% YoY to ~INR7,000 million in Q4FY24. The company guided for 13–14% domestic revenue growth in FY25.
Riding on improving profitability at Unichem operation and launch of U.S. product, Ipca is expecting 10–12% growth in EBITDA and 2% improvement in EBITDA margin in FY25.  


Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN): Solid Q3 Result; Mid-Teens Growth Expected in Domestic Revenue in Q4

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 11 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Some stocks were added to global indices last month while some could be added in February. There are potential index implications for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> too.</li>
<li>The upward migrations have continued to outperform the downward migrations. The largest recent outperformance has come from stocks expected to move from the Mid Cap to the Large Cap segment.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 11 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
Some stocks were added to global indices last month while some could be added in February. There are potential index implications for the NIFTY Index and Nifty Next 50 Index too.
The upward migrations have continued to outperform the downward migrations. The largest recent outperformance has come from stocks expected to move from the Mid Cap to the Large Cap segment.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): MidCap to LargeCap Migrations Outperforming

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.</li>
<li>Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.</li>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.</li>
</ul>


Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.
Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.
Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.


Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkem-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26928:1" rel="noopener">Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN)</a> is flying high on strong Q2 numbers. The shares rallied 23% since the company announced Q2FY24 result in early November, widely outperforming Nifty Pharma index.</li>
<li>In Q2FY24, revenue grew 12% YoY, and gross margin expanded 380bps to 61.4% backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in US market.</li>
<li>For the U.S. business, Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms for FY24. The company has reiterated FY24 gross margin guidance at 59.0–59.5%.</li>
</ul>



Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN) is flying high on strong Q2 numbers. The shares rallied 23% since the company announced Q2FY24 result in early November, widely outperforming Nifty Pharma index.
In Q2FY24, revenue grew 12% YoY, and gross margin expanded 380bps to 61.4% backed by lower raw material cost and lower intensity of price erosion in US market.
For the U.S. business, Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms for FY24. The company has reiterated FY24 gross margin guidance at 59.0–59.5%.


Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

India

Ajanta Pharma Limited is a pharmaceutical company involved in the areas of product research, manufacturing, and marketing. The Company's manufacturing capabilities include segments such as antiretrovirals, antimalarials, cardiovascular, dermatology, and ophthalmology. The Company also markets over the counter products that include some nature-based remedies.

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Ajanta Pharma (AJP IN)

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Sluggish Performance Expected In Near-Term; Time to Book Profit

Alkem reports just 1% revenue growth in Q4FY24, with significant improvement in gross margin. The company expects 10% YoY revenue growth for FY25,...

Tina Banerjee

Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN): Solid Q3 Result; Mid-Teens Growth Expected in Domestic Revenue in Q4

Ipca reports strong Q3FY24 results with revenue and net profit up 33% and 67% YoY. The company is expecting continued growth in India formulation...

Tina Banerjee

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): MidCap to LargeCap Migrations Outperforming

We see 41 stocks migrating between different market cap segments in Jan. A lot of stocks will have passive flows from NIFTY, NIFTYJR and global...

Brian Freitas

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms from US business in FY24. FY24 gross margin guidance is 59.0–59.5%, backed by lower...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Sluggish Performance Expected In Near-Term; Time to Book Profit

​Alkem reports just 1% revenue growth in Q4FY24, with significant improvement in gross margin. The company expects 10% YoY revenue growth for FY25,...

Tina Banerjee

Ipca Laboratories (IPCA IN): Solid Q3 Result; Mid-Teens Growth Expected in Domestic Revenue in Q4

​Ipca reports strong Q3FY24 results with revenue and net profit up 33% and 67% YoY. The company is expecting continued growth in India formulation...

Tina Banerjee

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): MidCap to LargeCap Migrations Outperforming

We see 41 stocks migrating between different market cap segments in Jan. A lot of stocks will have passive flows from NIFTY, NIFTYJR and global...

Brian Freitas

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

​Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

Alkem Laboratories Ltd (ALKEM IN): Further Upside on Card on US Business and Margin Improvement

Alkem is looking at high-single-digit growth in dollar terms from US business in FY24. FY24 gross margin guidance is 59.0–59.5%, backed by lower...

Tina Banerjee

Alkem reports just 1% revenue growth in Q4FY24, with significant improvement in gross margin. The company expects 10% YoY revenue growth for FY25,...

Ipca reports strong Q3FY24 results with revenue and net profit up 33% and 67% YoY. The company is expecting continued growth in India formulation...

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...