Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The interest shown by the richest and some of the most influential investors and the success of public-private partnerships in space programs are a reflection of an industry poised for strong growth over the next several years.  The space-tech landscape covers various technologies, but in this note, we focus only on the cosmonautic vehicle and propulsion systems. 
The current top players in propulsion are Ariane Group (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airbus-group-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21380:1" rel="noopener">Airbus Group SE (AIR FP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/safran-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21540:1" rel="noopener">Safran SA (SAF FP)</a> joint venture),<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aerojet-rocketdyne-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19120:1" rel="noopener">Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boeing-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11957:1" rel="noopener">Boeing Co (BA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raytheon-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6453:1" rel="noopener">Raytheon Company (RTN US)</a>, &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-technologies-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12750:1" rel="noopener">United Technologies (UTX US)</a>. The current top players in space vehicles and equipment are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boeing-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11957:1" rel="noopener">Boeing Co (BA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maxar-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28796:1" rel="noopener">Maxar Technologies Inc (MAXR US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airbus-group-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21380:1" rel="noopener">Airbus Group SE (AIR FP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thales-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21483:1" rel="noopener">Thales SA (HO FP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lockheed-martin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20372:1" rel="noopener">Lockheed Martin (LMT US)</a>. 
The two new preeminent private players SpaceX and Blue Origin don't feature in the top five players listed above, we discuss the reasons later in the report. 
Unlike e-commerce or software-driven startups, space vehicles and propulsion are relatively capital intensive. So unless the start-ups are led by founders with deep pockets (like Blue Origin) or founders with the ability to raise innovation capital (like SpaceX) it is best to stick to the established names and hope they evolve their business model to adjust for the democratization and marketization of the space industry. That said two private names that screen well are Redwire (vehicles) and Mountain Aerospace Research (propulsion).<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avio-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34833:1" rel="noopener">Avio SPA (AVIO IM)</a>is a small-cap listed company in the top ten for propulsion

The interest shown by the richest and some of the most influential investors and the success of public-private partnerships in space programs are a reflection of an industry poised for strong growth over the next several years.  The space-tech landscape covers various technologies, but in this note, we focus only on the cosmonautic vehicle and propulsion systems. 
The current top players in propulsion are Ariane Group (Airbus Group SE (AIR FP) &amp; Safran SA (SAF FP) joint venture),Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD US), Boeing Co (BA US), Raytheon Company (RTN US), &amp; United Technologies (UTX US). The current top players in space vehicles and equipment are Boeing Co (BA US), Maxar Technologies Inc (MAXR US), Airbus Group SE (AIR FP), Thales SA (HO FP), Alphabet Inc Cl C (GOOG US) &amp; Lockheed Martin (LMT US). 
The two new preeminent private players SpaceX and Blue Origin don't feature in the top five players listed above, we discuss the reasons later in the report. 
Unlike e-commerce or software-driven startups, space vehicles and propulsion are relatively capital intensive. So unless the start-ups are led by founders with deep pockets (like Blue Origin) or founders with the ability to raise innovation capital (like SpaceX) it is best to stick to the established names and hope they evolve their business model to adjust for the democratization and marketization of the space industry. That said two private names that screen well are Redwire (vehicles) and Mountain Aerospace Research (propulsion).Avio SPA (AVIO IM)is a small-cap listed company in the top ten for propulsion

Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: Space Vehicles and Propulsion Systems

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

BOC Aviation | BOCAVI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-aviation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22689:1" rel="noopener">(2588 HK)</a> 
As a follow-up on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a>'s Smartkarma Original <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-pac-airports-ups-but-mostly-downs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51855" rel="noopener">Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs</a>, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.
BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.
Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  
We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021. By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. 
We are buyers at book value. The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.
Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary

BOC Aviation | BOCAVI (2588 HK) 
As a follow-up on David Blennerhassett's Smartkarma Original Asia-Pac Airports: Ups, But Mostly Downs, we take a look at BOCAVI, which, in our view, is a compelling alternative to APAC airport operators and airlines as a post-Covid trade.
BOCAVI is a highly geared play on the resumption of air travel. The stock has gone through periods of significant out/underperformance against the APAC airports and airlines and may continue to give investors high beta in either direction. The geographical exposure is broad, but there is a heavy skew towards short-haul flights, which will see the earliest acceleration in passenger traffic.
Management's countercyclical capex expansion increasingly looks like a shrewd bet. At its core, BOCAVI is in the capital management business. Strong liquidity and BOC's explicit backing have allowed the lessor to grow its purchase-and-leaseback portfolio through the depths of the pandemic. While airlines are still hemorrhaging cash, over 99% of BOCAVI's aircraft remain cash-generating.  
We expect the firm's undiscounted committed revenues to top USD20bn in 2021. By year-end, the value of the portfolio will have doubled since 2014. We estimate the present value of this cashflow stream to be HKD72.80/share. We are essentially getting free growth optionality. 
We are buyers at book value. The stock is trading at 8x P/E and 1.1x P/B on a 12M forward basis. BOCAVI is reasonably liquid, with a market cap of USD6bn and average daily turnover of USD3.5mn. Besides the obvious risk of protracted lockdowns globally, a well-functioning USD bond market and BOC's funding support are critical to our investment case.
Attachment: BOCAVI Financial Summary

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>As a part of “Smartkarma Originals” initiative, we developed separate screening systems - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fragility-and-resilience-screening-system" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fragility and Resilience Screening System</a> in May 2020, to identify the potential bankruptcy candidates and the most resilient companies.</li>
<li>2020 was a year like no other. As the year 2020 draws to a close, we test the effectiveness of our screening system and update the bankruptcy screening files to identify new bankruptcy targets of 2021.</li>
</ul>


As a part of “Smartkarma Originals” initiative, we developed separate screening systems - Fragility and Resilience Screening System in May 2020, to identify the potential bankruptcy candidates and the most resilient companies.
2020 was a year like no other. As the year 2020 draws to a close, we test the effectiveness of our screening system and update the bankruptcy screening files to identify new bankruptcy targets of 2021.


Bankruptcy Monitor: May-December 2020 Update

France

Airbus Group SE manufactures airplanes and military equipment.  The Company produces commercial aircraft including the Airbus, military fighter aircraft, military and commercial helicopters, missiles, satellites, and telecommunications and defense systems, and offers military and commercial aircraft conversion and maintenance services.

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Airbus Group SE (AIR FP)

Ideas from Data Mining Technical Publications: Space Vehicles and Propulsion Systems

The space economy is seeing much more private sector participation. This sets up the sector for strong growth. In this report, we screen for...

Pyari Menon

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Today we highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our...

Vermilion Research

BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

As downstream players continue to hemorrhage cash, over 99% of BOCAVI’s aircraft are still cash-generating. Valuation is undemanding for a high...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Bankruptcy Monitor: May-December 2020 Update

This is an analysis of the effectiveness and an update to a screening system, we developed as a part of the Smartkarma Originals initiative in May...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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