New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Air New Zealand (AIR) will report an impressive rebound in profitability when it reports its 1H23 result on 23 February 2023.</li><li>In light of a very strong end to the half we expect PBT at the top end of management's guidance range of NZ$295m–NZ$325m</li><li>The strong yield backdrop will continue to boost earnings through 2H23, with upside risk to near term consensus earnings. </li></ul>

Air New Zealand (AIR) will report an impressive rebound in profitability when it reports its 1H23 result on 23 February 2023.In light of a very strong end to the half we expect PBT at the top end of management's guidance range of NZ$295m–NZ$325mThe strong yield backdrop will continue to boost earnings through 2H23, with upside risk to near term consensus earnings. 

Air New Zealand: 1H23 Preview — Return Flight to Profitability

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Indigo’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$375m via selling around 4.0% of the company.</li>
<li>He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder. He last sold in Sep 2022.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Indigo’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$375m via selling around 4.0% of the company.
He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder. He last sold in Sep 2022.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement - Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again

<ul><li>Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a bumper end to CY22.</li><li>Our estimate (~NZ$650m) for its December 2022 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of December 2019 (~NZ$580m), implying ~NZ$18.5m/day</li><li>Demand remains strong in a capacity constrained market. Load factors (at 88.2%) are the third highest in its history (behind September and October 2022)</li></ul>

Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a bumper end to CY22.Our estimate (~NZ$650m) for its December 2022 pax revenue is comfortably ahead of December 2019 (~NZ$580m), implying ~NZ$18.5m/dayDemand remains strong in a capacity constrained market. Load factors (at 88.2%) are the third highest in its history (behind September and October 2022)

<ul><li>Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats continue to suggest passenger revenue is above CY19 levels</li><li>We expect revenue to remain at/above 2019 levels for the remainder of FY23, but with capacity increasing and yields/RASK declining from recent highs</li><li>AIR’s recent 1H23 earnings guidance upgrade (PBT of NZ$295m-NZ$325m) implies a strong FY23 result</li></ul>

Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats continue to suggest passenger revenue is above CY19 levelsWe expect revenue to remain at/above 2019 levels for the remainder of FY23, but with capacity increasing and yields/RASK declining from recent highsAIR’s recent 1H23 earnings guidance upgrade (PBT of NZ$295m-NZ$325m) implies a strong FY23 result

Air New Zealand: Revenue Remains Above 2019 Levels

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly, particularly for seafreight, with global spot indices now down ~80% from their peaks but still above pre-pandemic levels</li><li>Air cargo's rates compression has been slower, mirroring the slow recovery in air seat capacity</li><li>In this normalising, yet far from normal environment, Freightways (FRE; OUTPERFORM) and Mainfreight (MFT; OUTPERFORM) remain our preferred exposures in the sector</li></ul>

Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly, particularly for seafreight, with global spot indices now down ~80% from their peaks but still above pre-pandemic levelsAir cargo's rates compression has been slower, mirroring the slow recovery in air seat capacityIn this normalising, yet far from normal environment, Freightways (FRE; OUTPERFORM) and Mainfreight (MFT; OUTPERFORM) remain our preferred exposures in the sector

Transport Trends: Nothing Normal About the Normalising

New Zealand

Air New Zealand Limited operates an airline business that provides international and domestic air passenger and cargo transport services throughout New Zealand and the South West Pacific. The Company also provides engineering and ground handling services.

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Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)

Air New Zealand: 1H23 Preview — Return Flight to Profitability

Air New Zealand (AIR) will report an impressive rebound in profitability when it reports its 1H23 result on 23 February 2023 and in light of a very...

Forsyth Barr

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement - Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again

Indigo’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$375m via selling around 4.0% of the company. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Air New Zealand: Record Revenues

Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats highlight a bumper end to CY22; Our estimate (~NZ$650m) for its December...

Forsyth Barr

Air New Zealand: Revenue Remains Above 2019 Levels

Air New Zealand’s (AIR) latest monthly passenger (pax) operating stats continue to suggest passenger revenue is above CY19 levels; Demand remains...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends: Nothing Normal About the Normalising

The industry is normalising, but from different angles and at a different rates: Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly,...

Forsyth Barr

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