Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Pension Reform/Foreign Ownership Reforms: Whilst reform has been anticipated for well over a decade, the initial market reaction suggests this should be a long-term boon for the mainland Chinese life insurance sector.  China Life (2628.HK) has the most exposure to the nation’s life &amp; pensions industry and is the largest purveyor of pension products.  * Not So Fast: Growth prospects are exciting, but the fact is that the mainland Chinese insurance sector in aggregate has a very questionable…

* Pension Reform/Foreign Ownership Reforms: Whilst reform has been anticipated for well over a decade, the initial market reaction suggests this should be a long-term boon for the mainland Chinese life insurance sector.  China Life (2628.HK) has the most exposure to the nation’s life &amp; pensions industry and is the largest purveyor of pension products.  * Not So Fast: Growth prospects are exciting, but the fact is that the mainland Chinese insurance sector in aggregate has a very questionable…

AIA Group Ltd. – Risk & Reward of Chinese Insurance Reforms

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

AIA's flat congestive formation from late 2017 shows some strong bull signals. Important to note that AIA outperformed (held flat) during market weakness which allowed time to build steam for an upside breakout which is unfolding. Typically, flat congestion or sideways trade as indictors drift lower is a bull set-up and is what we are seeing in AIA.We were looking for a pullback near 65/63 for a long entry, however, today's break above 69/70 puts AIA firmly in the breakout camp as long as we…

AIA's flat congestive formation from late 2017 shows some strong bull signals. Important to note that AIA outperformed (held flat) during market weakness which allowed time to build steam for an upside breakout which is unfolding. Typically, flat congestion or sideways trade as indictors drift lower is a bull set-up and is what we are seeing in AIA.We were looking for a pullback near 65/63 for a long entry, however, today's break above 69/70 puts AIA firmly in the breakout camp as long as we…

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In this report, we look at financials positioning among global equity funds which, in line with global EM funds, are sitting at their highest levels in over 7 years.  Despite this record exposure, there has been a clear rotation out of US financial stocks and into EMEA and Asian stocks.  The latest positioning data shows India as the largest financial overweight among our group of 149 global equity funds, with the US moving from an overweight holding to underweight in the space of the last 12 months.

In this report, we look at financials positioning among global equity funds which, in line with global EM funds, are sitting at their highest levels in over 7 years.  Despite this record exposure, there has been a clear rotation out of US financial stocks and into EMEA and Asian stocks.  The latest positioning data shows India as the largest financial overweight among our group of 149 global equity funds, with the US moving from an overweight holding to underweight in the space of the last 12 months.

Global Financials Positioning:  Funds Hit Maximum Overweight - Rotate Out of USA, into EMEA/Asia

* De-Merger Announcement: Prudential plc (PRU.LN) [Pru] expects to segregate its United Kingdom (UK) life insurance and asset management subsidiary from the rest of the operation. Instead, Pru will now focus on Asia, the United States, and Africa.* Asian Capital Raise Likelier: We would not be surprised to see a significant capital raise in Hong Kong if/when the relationship with Jackson National is terminated. Hiving off the US franchise would allow the shares to trade more on par with AIA…

* De-Merger Announcement: Prudential plc (PRU.LN) [Pru] expects to segregate its United Kingdom (UK) life insurance and asset management subsidiary from the rest of the operation. Instead, Pru will now focus on Asia, the United States, and Africa.* Asian Capital Raise Likelier: We would not be surprised to see a significant capital raise in Hong Kong if/when the relationship with Jackson National is terminated. Hiving off the US franchise would allow the shares to trade more on par with AIA…

Prudential Plc – De-Merger Suggests Greater Competition for AIA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* Risk Increasing Within Tier 2 Banks:  The 2nd tier banks is looking increasingly vulnerable. Tighter asset management regulations are being implemented in March 2018 which should force the sector to abandon their high level of illiquid assets and promote “real” NAV-type products. This risk has now morphed into a size where confidence in the financial system could erode quickly. * Watch Your Insurers: Mainland Chinese insurers have 50%-60% of their investment portfolios exposed to the weakest…

* Risk Increasing Within Tier 2 Banks:  The 2nd tier banks is looking increasingly vulnerable. Tighter asset management regulations are being implemented in March 2018 which should force the sector to abandon their high level of illiquid assets and promote “real” NAV-type products. This risk has now morphed into a size where confidence in the financial system could erode quickly. * Watch Your Insurers: Mainland Chinese insurers have 50%-60% of their investment portfolios exposed to the weakest…

China Financials – The Accident About to Happen

Hong Kong

AIA Group Limited offers insurance and financial services. The Company writes life insurance for individuals, businesses, accident, and health insurance, as well as retirement planning and wealth management services.

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AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)

AIA Group Ltd. – Risk & Reward of Chinese Insurance Reforms

* Pension Reform/Foreign Ownership Reforms: Whilst reform has been anticipated for well over a decade, the initial market reaction suggests this...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA Bullish to 80.90 and Better

AIA's flat congestive formation from late 2017 shows some strong bull signals. Important to note that AIA outperformed (held flat) during market...

Thomas Schroeder

Global Financials Positioning: Funds Hit Maximum Overweight - Rotate Out of USA, into EMEA/Asia

In this report, we look at financials positioning among global equity funds which, in line with global EM funds, are sitting at their highest...

Steven Holden

Prudential Plc – De-Merger Suggests Greater Competition for AIA

* De-Merger Announcement: Prudential plc (PRU.LN) [Pru] expects to segregate its United Kingdom (UK) life insurance and asset management subsidiary...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Financials – The Accident About to Happen

* Risk Increasing Within Tier 2 Banks: The 2nd tier banks is looking increasingly vulnerable. Tighter asset management regulations are being...

Thomas J. Monaco

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