Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.</li>
<li>CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.</li>
<li>Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.</li>
</ul>


The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.
CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.
Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.


CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 23rd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows for CNOOC, China Mobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 23rd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows for CNOOC, China Mobile.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 23rd): CNOOC, China Mobile

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 23rd.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,986.7 million, led by financials, consumer staples, industrials sectors, and offset by information technology, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Wuliangye, Agricultural Bank Of China, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Wuxi Apptec.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 23rd.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,986.7 million, led by financials, consumer staples, industrials sectors, and offset by information technology, communication services.
We highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Wuliangye, Agricultural Bank Of China, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Wuxi Apptec.


Northbound Flows (Feb 23rd): Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Wuliangye

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 26th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,818.4 million, led by financials, utilities, information technology sectors, and offset by communication services, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CMB, China Yangtze Power, Zhongji Innolight, Centre Testing International, Agricultural Bank Of China, China State Construction Engineering, Petrochina, Tcl Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology, Ja Solar Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 26th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,818.4 million, led by financials, utilities, information technology sectors, and offset by communication services, energy.
We highlight flows for CMB, China Yangtze Power, Zhongji Innolight, Centre Testing International, Agricultural Bank Of China, China State Construction Engineering, Petrochina, Tcl Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology, Ja Solar Technology.


Northbound Flows (Jan 26th): CMB, China Yangtze Power, Zhongji Innolight, Petrochina

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 12.1bn of A-shares on very strong average activity. National Team continued to buy this week. Foreigners bought banks</li>
<li>Renewables were again a net sell by NORTHBOUND. It is not clear what stops persistent net selling. Capacity huge/growing and Pricing is a disaster in solar modules, batteries, etc. </li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 12.1bn of A-shares on very strong average activity. National Team continued to buy this week. Foreigners bought banks
Renewables were again a net sell by NORTHBOUND. It is not clear what stops persistent net selling. Capacity huge/growing and Pricing is a disaster in solar modules, batteries, etc. 


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024): Decent Net Buying, Buying Banks and SOEs

China

Agricultural Bank of China Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services. The Banks services includes RMB and foreign currency deposit, loan, international and domestic settlement, bill discount, currency trading, bank guarantee, and treasury bill underwriting.

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Agricultural Bank Of China (1288 HK)

CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

CCB will list its subsidiary China Housing Rental although this may be small relative to the bank's total loans, and any benefits can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 23rd): CNOOC, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted the weekly flows for CNOOC, China Mobile.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Feb 23rd): Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Wuliangye

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Jan 26th): CMB, China Yangtze Power, Zhongji Innolight, Petrochina

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CMB, China Yangtze Power, Zhongji Innolight, Centre...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024): Decent Net Buying, Buying Banks and SOEs

NORTHBOUND Connect this week saw heavy gross activity and decent net buying. Lots of buying in Banks and SOEs, selling in Petrochina as National...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)