Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Agora share price rallied 34% on C3Q24 earning call. During the call Agora outlined plans for large scale layoffs and committed to turn profitable for full year 2025;</li>
<li>With the business rationalization, cooperation with OpenAI now becomes the only growth driver for the future. We believe with Agora's operation-oriented business model, there is a fair chance for success;</li>
<li>Considering the price cut speed of 10x in one year from Chat GPT, the audio GAI price lower from US$9/hour to US$1/hour could happen within one year.</li>
</ul>


Agora share price rallied 34% on C3Q24 earning call. During the call Agora outlined plans for large scale layoffs and committed to turn profitable for full year 2025;
With the business rationalization, cooperation with OpenAI now becomes the only growth driver for the future. We believe with Agora's operation-oriented business model, there is a fair chance for success;
Considering the price cut speed of 10x in one year from Chat GPT, the audio GAI price lower from US$9/hour to US$1/hour could happen within one year.


Agora (API US): Rationalizing All Biz and Zero in on OpenAI

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Freshworks, a cloud-based customer services software unicorn, held its first Investor Day on September 7, 2023. Management highlighted the long-term target to deliver the Rule of 40 by 2025. </li>
<li>The 2023 Investor Day agenda included company vision and strategy, solutions in action, strategy for durable growth, customer spotlight, and financial overview, among others. </li>
<li>Management plans to deliver a long-term balance of growth and profitability, with the 2026 model leading to an FCF margin of 20%+ and $1B+ revenue. </li>
</ul>


Freshworks, a cloud-based customer services software unicorn, held its first Investor Day on September 7, 2023. Management highlighted the long-term target to deliver the Rule of 40 by 2025. 
The 2023 Investor Day agenda included company vision and strategy, solutions in action, strategy for durable growth, customer spotlight, and financial overview, among others. 
Management plans to deliver a long-term balance of growth and profitability, with the 2026 model leading to an FCF margin of 20%+ and $1B+ revenue. 


Freshworks: 2023 Investor Day and Valuation Update

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 2nd Apr 2022, CSRC put out a draft for public comments on the revision of certain provisions which would allow easier access by overseas regulators to China ADRs audits.</li>
<li>On 8th Mar 2022, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) had added five China ADR names to its provisional list of issuers under HFCAA, which set the clock ticking for their delisting.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments and its implications.</li>
</ul>


On 2nd Apr 2022, CSRC put out a draft for public comments on the revision of certain provisions which would allow easier access by overseas regulators to China ADRs audits.
On 8th Mar 2022, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) had added five China ADR names to its provisional list of issuers under HFCAA, which set the clock ticking for their delisting.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments and its implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Tide Is Turning with CSRC Showing Signs of a Compromise

Full Truck Alliance   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Full Truck Alliance (FTA), China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, raised around US$2bn in its US listing in Jun 21. It is backed by Softbank and Sequoia.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our earlier IPO notes, links to which are included below.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the updates since listing and the impact of the upcoming lock-up expiry.</li>
</ul>


Full Truck Alliance (FTA), China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, raised around US$2bn in its US listing in Jun 21. It is backed by Softbank and Sequoia.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our earlier IPO notes, links to which are included below.
In this note, we look at the updates since listing and the impact of the upcoming lock-up expiry.


Full Truck Alliance Lock-Up Expiry - In Similar Delisting Boat as Didi. 60% of Stock up for Lock-Up

China

Agora, Inc. provides communication software solutions. The Company offers video, voice, and live interactive streaming platform to interact and engage with others online. Agora serves customers worldwide.

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Agora Inc. (API US)

Agora (API US): Rationalizing All Biz and Zero in on OpenAI

Agora's share price surged after announcing layoffs and commitment to profitability by 2025, with cooperation with OpenAI as key growth driver....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Freshworks: 2023 Investor Day and Valuation Update

2023 Investor Day highlights massive TAM, ongoing business momentum, adoption of multi-product strategy, and AI monetization opportunities: PT...

Andrei Zakharov

China ADRs Delisting - Tide Is Turning with CSRC Showing Signs of a Compromise

On 2nd Apr 2022, CSRC put out a draft for public comments on the revision of certain provisions which would allow easier access by overseas...

Sumeet Singh

Full Truck Alliance Lock-Up Expiry - In Similar Delisting Boat as Didi. 60% of Stock up for Lock-Up

Full Truck Alliance (FTA), China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, raised around US$2bn in its US listing in Jun 21....

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Agora (API US): Rationalizing All Biz and Zero in on OpenAI

​Agora's share price surged after announcing layoffs and commitment to profitability by 2025, with cooperation with OpenAI as key growth driver....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Freshworks: 2023 Investor Day and Valuation Update

2023 Investor Day highlights massive TAM, ongoing business momentum, adoption of multi-product strategy, and AI monetization opportunities: PT...

Andrei Zakharov

China ADRs Delisting - Tide Is Turning with CSRC Showing Signs of a Compromise

On 2nd Apr 2022, CSRC put out a draft for public comments on the revision of certain provisions which would allow easier access by overseas...

Sumeet Singh

Full Truck Alliance Lock-Up Expiry - In Similar Delisting Boat as Didi. 60% of Stock up for Lock-Up

Full Truck Alliance (FTA), China’s largest digital freight platform by gross transaction value, raised around US$2bn in its US listing in Jun 21....

Sumeet Singh

Agora's share price surged after announcing layoffs and commitment to profitability by 2025, with cooperation with OpenAI as key growth driver....