Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act well and that are offering fantastic entry points at current levels. Health Care and Technology remain our two favorite global Sectors, and they are outperforming across all major markets including the US, Europe, Japan, and China. Remain overweight/add exposure. Consumer Staples is another leadership Sector, particularly in the Asia/Pacific region. Lastly, we are also continuing to expand our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors as the market goes through a bottoming process.

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act well and that are offering fantastic entry points at current levels. Health Care and Technology remain our two favorite global Sectors, and they are outperforming across all major markets including the US, Europe, Japan, and China. Remain overweight/add exposure. Consumer Staples is another leadership Sector, particularly in the Asia/Pacific region. Lastly, we are also continuing to expand our recommendations to include bottom-up ideas within several other Sectors as the market goes through a bottoming process.

In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&amp;P 500 is headed next. We also highlight several attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&amp;P 500 is headed next. We also highlight several attractive stocks from a relative strength perspective across Sectors.

U.S. Equities: Upside Momentum Lost, But Not Breaking Down

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Agnico Eagle’s FY19 results revealed production of 1.782Moz at a total cash cost of US$673/oz, compared with prior guidance of 1.77–1.78Moz at US$620–670/oz. Adjusted EPS for Q419 was US$0.37/share – almost exactly the same as Q319 – to result in FY19 adjusted EPS of US$1.01/share (Edison calculation). At the same time, the quarterly dividend was raised from US$0.175/share to US$0.20/share. However, despite the positive aspects of the results, production guidance for FY20 was lowered from 1.9–2.0Moz to 1.875Moz (a decline of 3.8% at the midpoint) and the shares sold off 15.6%, albeit we believe this reaction to have been overdone. Production guidance for FY21 and FY22 remained (effectively) unchanged.

Agnico Eagle’s FY19 results revealed production of 1.782Moz at a total cash cost of US$673/oz, compared with prior guidance of 1.77–1.78Moz at US$620–670/oz. Adjusted EPS for Q419 was US$0.37/share – almost exactly the same as Q319 – to result in FY19 adjusted EPS of US$1.01/share (Edison calculation). At the same time, the quarterly dividend was raised from US$0.175/share to US$0.20/share. However, despite the positive aspects of the results, production guidance for FY20 was lowered from 1.9–2.0Moz to 1.875Moz (a decline of 3.8% at the midpoint) and the shares sold off 15.6%, albeit we believe this reaction to have been overdone. Production guidance for FY21 and FY22 remained (effectively) unchanged.

Agnico Eagle Mines  - Record production and cash flow

Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Commodities

we expand on our previous note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/gold-is-it-the-beginning-of-new-golden-era-or-end-of-the-bull-run" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12832" rel="noopener">Gold: Is It the Beginning of New Golden Era or End of the Bull Run?</a> Our analysis of returns on gold and gold-stock indicates the following:<ul>
<li>Gold stocks and gold commodity had no returns in FY18,</li>
<li>YTD FY19 gold stocks returns were superior compared to gold commodity,</li>
<li>Our portfolio of 11 gold producers returned 55% YTD with a Sharpe ratio of ~2.</li>
<li>Given the volatility in markets, we believe that ‘flight to safety’ will continue in short to mid-term, supporting gold prices.</li>
</ul>

we expand on our previous note Gold: Is It the Beginning of New Golden Era or End of the Bull Run? Our analysis of returns on gold and gold-stock indicates the following:
Gold stocks and gold commodity had no returns in FY18,
YTD FY19 gold stocks returns were superior compared to gold commodity,
Our portfolio of 11 gold producers returned 55% YTD with a Sharpe ratio of ~2.
Given the volatility in markets, we believe that ‘flight to safety’ will continue in short to mid-term, supporting gold prices.


We have noted several times throughout August that key support levels were being tested for global equities, and while there has yet to be a decisive breakdown, as time has passed there has been new negative developments which lead us to be even more cautious. This past Friday’s test of support is no different, and we believe the market is more vulnerable to a breakdown than it has been at any other point this year. In this report we highlight the new concerning developments which lead us to believe the market remains vulnerable to a breakdown. On a more positive note, we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within homebuilders, storage REITs, and large- and small-cap Western Hemisphere gold miners

We have noted several times throughout August that key support levels were being tested for global equities, and while there has yet to be a decisive breakdown, as time has passed there has been new negative developments which lead us to be even more cautious. This past Friday’s test of support is no different, and we believe the market is more vulnerable to a breakdown than it has been at any other point this year. In this report we highlight the new concerning developments which lead us to believe the market remains vulnerable to a breakdown. On a more positive note, we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within homebuilders, storage REITs, and large- and small-cap Western Hemisphere gold miners

U.S. Equity Strategy: Caution Remains Warranted

Canada

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a gold producer with operations primarily in northwestern Quebec, northern Mexico, northern Finland and Nunavut.  The Company also has exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America, and the United States.  Agnico Eagle Mines focuses on the exploration, development, and expansion of its gold properities primarily from underground operations.

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Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM CN)

Global Equities: Lower Highs Forming

While the major averages are stalling below major resistance and their direction is unclear, there are many individual stocks that continue to act...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equities: Upside Momentum Lost, But Not Breaking Down

In today's report we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&P 500 is headed...

Vermilion Research

Agnico Eagle Mines - Record production and cash flow

Agnico Eagle’s FY19 results revealed production of 1.782Moz at a total cash cost of US$673/oz, compared with prior guidance of 1.77–1.78Moz at...

Edison Investment Research

Gold: Gold Stocks Making a Comeback?

we expand on our previous note Gold: Is It the Beginning of New Golden Era or End of the Bull Run? Our analysis of returns on gold and gold-stock...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

U.S. Equity Strategy: Caution Remains Warranted

We have noted several times throughout August that key support levels were being tested for global equities, and while there has yet to be a...

Vermilion Research

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