Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.</li>
<li>Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.</li>
<li>China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was "quite possible" the lows were in.
Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.


Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) reported record quarterly gold production of 873koz in Q223 at a US$840/oz total cash cost and a US$1,150/oz all-in sustaining cost (AISC) that drove strong financial results of adjusted EPS of US$0.65/share and operating cash flow of US$1.46/share. Record-breaking production reflects 100% ownership for the full quarter of Canadian Malartic, which will add c 80–90koz in attributable production per quarter. Additionally, AEM recorded the safest half-year performance in its history. Guidance for FY23 has been reiterated at 3.24–3.44Moz at a cash cost of US$840–890/oz and AISC of US$1,140–1,190/oz. The quarterly dividend remains at US$0.40/share.</p>

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) reported record quarterly gold production of 873koz in Q223 at a US$840/oz total cash cost and a US$1,150/oz all-in sustaining cost (AISC) that drove strong financial results of adjusted EPS of US$0.65/share and operating cash flow of US$1.46/share. Record-breaking production reflects 100% ownership for the full quarter of Canadian Malartic, which will add c 80–90koz in attributable production per quarter. Additionally, AEM recorded the safest half-year performance in its history. Guidance for FY23 has been reiterated at 3.24–3.44Moz at a cash cost of US$840–890/oz and AISC of US$1,140–1,190/oz. The quarterly dividend remains at US$0.40/share.

Agnico Eagle Mines - Record-breaking production

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

OceanaGold Philippines / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40897:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM)</a> is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO.</li>
<li>OceanaGold Philippines (OGPI) is a producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, and a subsidiary of OceanaGold Corporation, a Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) listed gold mining and exploration company.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance and shared our quick thoughts on valuation. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO.
OceanaGold Philippines (OGPI) is a producer of gold and copper in the Philippines, and a subsidiary of OceanaGold Corporation, a Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) listed gold mining and exploration company.
In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance and shared our quick thoughts on valuation. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.


OceanaGold Philippines IPO - Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Too Expensive Even at This Price

Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.</li>
<li>Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
<li>ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.</li>
</ul>


A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.


Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)</a> raised around US$714m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing the deal at IDR1,695/share. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 21st Feb 2024.</li>
<li>Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, and processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) raised around US$714m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing the deal at IDR1,695/share. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 21st Feb 2024.
Amman Mineral International (AMI) carries out exploration, development, mining, and processing. The company operates an open pit copper and gold mine known as the Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Amman Mineral International Lockup Expiry - Large Lockup Expiry, Sitting on Sizeable Profits

Canada

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited is a gold producer with operations primarily in northwestern Quebec, northern Mexico, northern Finland and Nunavut.  The Company also has exploration activities in Canada, Europe, Latin America, and the United States.  Agnico Eagle Mines focuses on the exploration, development, and expansion of its gold properities primarily from underground operations.

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Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM CN)

Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Agnico Eagle Mines - Record-breaking production

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) reported record quarterly gold production of 873koz in Q223 at a US$840/oz total cash cost and a US$1,150/oz all-in...

Edison Investment Research

OceanaGold Philippines IPO - Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Too Expensive Even at This Price

OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.

Ethan Aw

Amman Mineral International Lockup Expiry - Large Lockup Expiry, Sitting on Sizeable Profits

Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) raised around US$714m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing the deal at IDR1,695/share. Its eight-month lockup...

Ethan Aw

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Bullish Outlook Intact; EM and China Continue to Bottom; Buys in Comms, Tech, Discretionary, Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI; EM and China Continue to Lead; U.S. Dollar (DXY), WTI Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Rolling Over; Buys in: Comms,...

Vermilion Research

Agnico Eagle Mines - Record-breaking production

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) reported record quarterly gold production of 873koz in Q223 at a US$840/oz total cash cost and a US$1,150/oz all-in...

Edison Investment Research

OceanaGold Philippines IPO - Updated Thoughts on Valuation - Too Expensive Even at This Price

OceanaGold Philippines (OGP PM) is looking to raise up to US$106m in its Philippines IPO. In this note, we share our updated thoughts on valuation.

Ethan Aw

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Commodities Testing Resistance; Buys in Global Defensives (Staples, Utilities, Telecomm), Commodity...

Vermilion Research

Amman Mineral International Lockup Expiry - Large Lockup Expiry, Sitting on Sizeable Profits

Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ) raised around US$714m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing the deal at IDR1,695/share. Its eight-month lockup...

Ethan Aw