Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. </li>
<li>Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more


Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A bottom-up driven scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases with strong potential upsides.</li>
<li>Bullish patterns are broadly based, primarily concentrated in technology and cyclicals, which argue for a continuation of the AI-related bull and an economic rebound.</li>
<li>This bottom-up analysis also pointed to bullish macro conclusions about the economy.</li>
</ul>


A bottom-up driven scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases with strong potential upsides.
Bullish patterns are broadly based, primarily concentrated in technology and cyclicals, which argue for a continuation of the AI-related bull and an economic rebound.
This bottom-up analysis also pointed to bullish macro conclusions about the economy.


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 2H23 our longs Visa and PagSeguro delivered positive returns, whilst PayPal was in negative territory; among our shorts, Kakao Pay was modestly successful, DLocal and Affirm continued to appreciate</li>
<li>We retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, and keep PagSeguro and PayPal adding Cielo to the buy list</li>
<li>We keep our negative views on DLocal and Affirm, and remove Kakao Pay from the sell list for its less marked price-to-sales multiple valuation</li>
</ul>


In 2H23 our longs Visa and PagSeguro delivered positive returns, whilst PayPal was in negative territory; among our shorts, Kakao Pay was modestly successful, DLocal and Affirm continued to appreciate
We retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, and keep PagSeguro and PayPal adding Cielo to the buy list
We keep our negative views on DLocal and Affirm, and remove Kakao Pay from the sell list for its less marked price-to-sales multiple valuation


Payment Companies – Our High Conviction Calls for 1H 2024

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful</li>
<li>Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list</li>
<li>We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples</li>
</ul>


In 1H23 and in the early part of 3Q23, our longs – Visa, Wise and PagSeguro – delivered positive returns; our shorts, DLocal and Kakao Pay, were also modestly successful
Ahead of results to June 2023, we retain card network megacap Visa as a core holding, as well as PagSeguro; we add PayPal and drop Wise from the buy list
We keep our negative view on DLocal and add Affirm, given high take-rates and  premium valuations; we stick with our negative on Kakao Pay due to its lofty multiples


Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value</li>
<li>To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost</li>
<li>We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations</li>
</ul>


Softbank Vision Funds 1 and 2 were the biggest combined holdings at December 2022, accounting for 30% of group equity value; SVF private companies accounted for 73% of equity value
To December-end 2022, public companies in SVF2 were marked down by 52% versus investment cost, whereas SVF2 private companies were marked down by a more modest 33% versus investment cost
We believe that SVF2 private company valuations are at risk of further markdowns in 4QFY22 results, with many of these investments made close to the period of peak pandemic valuations


Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

United States

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company. The Company builds platform for digital and mobile-first commerce. Affirm Holdings offers financial services tool that allows consumers to purchase goods and services. Affirm Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Affirm Holdings (AFRM US)

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

29 Reasons to Be Bullish

A bottom-up scan of stock charts shows over 29 stocks with bullish technical patterns consisting of uptrends or breakouts from multi-month bases...

Cam Hui

Payment Companies – Our High Conviction Calls for 1H 2024

In payments, we stick with Visa, PayPal and PagSeguro, adding Cielo to the buy list; we remain negative on DLocal and Affirm, removing Kakao Pay...

Victor Galliano

Payment Companies – 1H 2023 in Review, Our High Conviction Calls for 2H 2023

Our 2H 2023 payments company longs are card network megacap Visa, value play PagSeguro and PayPal with our short calls being DLocal, Kakao Pay and...

Victor Galliano

Softbank (9984 JP) – Focus on the SVFs, Are the Private Companies Appropriately Marked?

The NAV could be 10%-15% lower than stated now at the mid-May results release, due to a further squeeze in private company valuations; this would...

Victor Galliano

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