'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS - 30th MARCH • </strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/242/original/image_63264034621617139328848.png?1617139329" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198242"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics  </div><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - Only one-quarter of Tuesday's results announcements scored positively. Of the larger caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samty-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18956:1" rel="noopener">Samty (3244 JP)</a> fell into the red for the first time since listing, while at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nishimatsuya-chain-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13375:1" rel="noopener">Nishimatsuya Chain (7545 JP)</a>, the earnings momentum may have peaked; however, there was a slight improvement in the company's Forecast/Revision Score as the company looks forward to FY22.   </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/243/original/image_48031735431617139751335.png?1617139751" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198243"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/244/original/image_10841378641617139785703.png?1617139786" class="editor-image img-responsive"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 30th MARCH •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/245/original/image_80824717151617139973935.png?1617139974" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198245"></figure><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Of the 18 annual forecasts and revisions, only half scored positively. The <strong>DETAIL</strong> Section below focuses on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nishimatsuya-chain-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13375:1" rel="noopener">Nishimatsuya Chain (7545 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/246/original/image_74897330061617140317631.png?1617140318" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198246"></figure>

• RESULTS - 30th MARCH • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics  RESULTS - Only one-quarter of Tuesday's results announcements scored positively. Of the larger caps, Samty (3244 JP) fell into the red for the first time since listing, while at Nishimatsuya Chain (7545 JP), the earnings momentum may have peaked; however, there was a slight improvement in the company's Forecast/Revision Score as the company looks forward to FY22.   • FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 30th MARCH •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Of the 18 annual forecasts and revisions, only half scored positively. The DETAIL Section below focuses on Nishimatsuya Chain (7545 JP) and AEON Mall (8905 JP).

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​​​30 - AEON Mall & Nishimatsuya + Nomura

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> is in the process of expanding its digital footprint. The company has long relied on tenant rents as a big part of its revenues and this is unlikely to change, and has also been slower than most to expand e-commerce and other digital systems. The pandemic has forced it to accelerate some plans and introduce some new ideas, many of which it has already trialled over in China.</p>

Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) is in the process of expanding its digital footprint. The company has long relied on tenant rents as a big part of its revenues and this is unlikely to change, and has also been slower than most to expand e-commerce and other digital systems. The pandemic has forced it to accelerate some plans and introduce some new ideas, many of which it has already trialled over in China.

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Japan Airport Terminal Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Investors rushed to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airport-terminal-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18034:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP)</a>as the Go-To campaign in Japan showed early promise of success and the finding of the vaccine and drove the share price to increase by 65% in less than 6 months despite the loss-making 2 quarters, </p>
<p>With the new COVID-19 variant and the uncertainty whether the current vaccine can be used to treat the new mutation of the virus, and the possibly weak quarter ahead as the widespread COVID-19 cases in Japan has halted the Go-To campaign, investors should think it is an opportune time to start shorting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airport-terminal-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18034:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP)</a> . In addition to that, the company is trading at a 93% premium to the peers' tangible book value multiples. </p>

Investors rushed to buy Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP)as the Go-To campaign in Japan showed early promise of success and the finding of the vaccine and drove the share price to increase by 65% in less than 6 months despite the loss-making 2 quarters, 
With the new COVID-19 variant and the uncertainty whether the current vaccine can be used to treat the new mutation of the virus, and the possibly weak quarter ahead as the widespread COVID-19 cases in Japan has halted the Go-To campaign, investors should think it is an opportune time to start shorting Japan Airport Terminal Co (9706 JP) . In addition to that, the company is trading at a 93% premium to the peers' tangible book value multiples. 

Japan Airport Terminal (9706): Close Border Means Weak Revenues?

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is consumer electronics retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bic-camera-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11328:1" rel="noopener">Bic Camera (3048 JP)</a> and Japan's largest mall operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-mall-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1" rel="noopener">AEON Mall (8905 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/781/original/2020-10-07_06-18-08.png?1602019101" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163781"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/782/original/2020-10-07_06-18-56.png?1602019156" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163782"></figure><div class="content-caption"><span>Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</span></div><div><hr></div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>16 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 63% Positive / 0% Neutral / 37% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>: +3.4 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +3.4% Quarter YoY / -0.5% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change</strong>: +0.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: </strong>25%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>11 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 45% Positive /18% Neutral / 37% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.3 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is consumer electronics retailer Bic Camera (3048 JP) and Japan's largest mall operator AEON Mall (8905 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS16 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 63% Positive / 0% Neutral / 37% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +3.4 points
Average % Change in Revenue: +3.4% Quarter YoY / -0.5% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: +0.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
11 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 45% Positive /18% Neutral / 37% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.3 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​06 -  SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/786/original/2020-07-08_06-33-57.png?1594157660" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144786"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/788/original/2020-07-08_06-35-53.png?1594157763" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144788"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/790/original/2020-07-08_06-48-56.png?1594158549" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144790"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>DESTINATION BLUES</strong> - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome 'kicker', while turnover leases add volatility to the mix. The foreign shareholder ratio and the Relative Price Score both peaked in 2014, despite the 455 increase in operating profits in the last five years. The revised profit target of ¥30 billion is less than that achieved in FY2008 when revenues were one-third current levels.  Residual returns have been negative since FY2019-Q2; our model suggests the shares are still overvalued at 0.82x book.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>14 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong>-0.6</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -3.7% Quarter YoY* / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.4ppt</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>8 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 4 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -5.9</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
DESTINATION BLUES - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome 'kicker', while turnover leases add volatility to the mix. The foreign shareholder ratio and the Relative Price Score both peaked in 2014, despite the 455 increase in operating profits in the last five years. The revised profit target of ¥30 billion is less than that achieved in FY2008 when revenues were one-third current levels.  Residual returns have been negative since FY2019-Q2; our model suggests the shares are still overvalued at 0.82x book.
DAILY STATS
14 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-0.6

Average % Change in Revenue: -3.7% Quarter YoY* / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.4ppt
 8 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 4 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.9


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 7th July - Aeon Mauled

Japan

AEON Mall Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and maintains large-scale shopping malls throughout Japan. The Company develops shopping malls, rent the space, manages and maintains the shopping malls.

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AEON Mall (8905 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/30 - AEON Mall & Nishimatsuya + Nomura

RESULTS - Only one-quarter of Tuesday's results announcements scored positively. Of the larger caps, Samty (3244 JP) fell into the red for the...

Campbell Gunn

Aeon Expands Digital Footprint

Aeon has lagged some competitors in expanding online options for its customers and still only expects its new Ocado system to launch in 2023. In...

Michael Causton

Japan Airport Terminal (9706): Close Border Means Weak Revenues?

With the new COVID-19 variant, uncertainty whether the vaccine is working, and possibly weak quarter as the COVID-19 in Japan increased halted the...

Henry Soediarko

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

• BEST WORST • Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 7th July - Aeon Mauled

DESTINATION BLUES - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome...

Campbell Gunn

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​​​30 - AEON Mall & Nishimatsuya + Nomura

RESULTS - Only one-quarter of Tuesday's results announcements scored positively. Of the larger caps, Samty (3244 JP) fell into the red for the...

Campbell Gunn

Aeon Expands Digital Footprint

Aeon has lagged some competitors in expanding online options for its customers and still only expects its new Ocado system to launch in 2023. In...

Michael Causton

Japan Airport Terminal (9706): Close Border Means Weak Revenues?

With the new COVID-19 variant, uncertainty whether the vaccine is working, and possibly weak quarter as the COVID-19 in Japan increased halted the...

Henry Soediarko

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​​06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers

• BEST WORST • Our best and worst pair from Tuesday's announcements is

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 7th July - Aeon Mauled

DESTINATION BLUES - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/30 - AEON Mall & Nishimatsuya + Nomura

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/06 - SAN-A, AEON Mall, Consumer Electronics Retailers